Middle East. The Kurds of Iran and Iraq seek to avoid the US and Israel

The Trump administration continues its war against Iran, while the Islamic Republic retaliates by attacking American facilities in the Persian Gulf and beyond. In July and, possibly in early August, Iranian forces or allied groups shelled bases of Kurdish opposition forces in northern Iraq.

Keivan Faramarzi, responsible for international relations of the Komala party reported that 10 fighters were killed in attacks on their facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan in recent weeks. Although no one has claimed responsibility for the strikes, Faramarzi suspects Iran. “These attacks are part of the policy implemented by the Islamic Republic, the aim of which is to attack the Iranian Kurdish opposition parties based outside Iran.”

Other Iranian Kurdish groups have reported similar attacks in Iraq, as well as in Iran itself, following Israeli media reports that Turkey had pressured the United States into abandoning an operation to move Iranian Kurdish fighters across the border. According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Abbas Araghchi, Israel and the USA planned the division of the country with the help of Kurdish groups (which is fully supported by the facts), and that “if any threat comes to us from Iraqi Kurdistan, we will certainly respond.”

As before, Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq have denied involvement in hostilities in Iran or that Trump has offered them any ground action. “We have no information about such a program, and there is no reliable evidence to confirm these statements. Most likely, such reports are media speculations and do not reflect the real state of affairs,” Faramarzi claims.

The representative of Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) Hana Yazdanpanah also agrees with him. “We have no such intentions either.” According to him, PAK participated in protecting residents from security services during anti-government protests earlier this year, but any claims of participation in subversive actions have nothing to do with reality. “Neither Kurdistan, nor we as the Kurdistan Freedom Party, and I can say the same about other Kurdish parties, have participated in any such operation, and we have not received any weapons or military equipment.”

However, Tehran still sees these groups as a serious threat.

According to the website of the organization “Minority Rights Group International”. for referenceKurds make up about 10% of Iran’s population and live mainly in western Kurdistan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan and Elam provinces. Several Iranian Kurdish opposition movements, which Tehran considers terrorist groups, have operated from bases in northern Iraq for decades. These include Komala, PAK, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (PKDI), Khabat, and the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), which is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Although these organizations have different political views, most of them are based on the need for self-defense of the Kurdish communities in Iran and the “liberation” of Iranian Kurdistan in the future. On February 22, amid active preparations for Operation Epic Wrath, five parties announced the formation of a coalition aimed at working together to “bring down the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

In April, US President Donald Trump boasted that he had sent “a lot” of weapons to anti-government protesters in Iran and that the Kurds had “taken” them, which they denied. “We have created an alliance to strengthen and intensify the fight against the Islamic Republic in Eastern Kurdistan and throughout Iran. In this struggle, we use all available methods of resistance,” Yazdanpanah said, adding that the coalition “declared its neutrality in the US-Iran conflict and has maintained it.”

In 2019, PAK claimed to have around 1,000 militants in its ranks, while the Kurdistan Democratic Alliance, Komala and Khabat are believed to have roughly the same number of armed supporters.: PJAK officials boasted about 3,000 fighters, but even combined, those numbers were far fewer than the armed actives of the IRGC and the hundreds of thousands in Basij volunteer units. Thus, the Kurdish “coalition” obviously does not have enough power to overthrow the Iranian government. Furthermore, Kurdish parties are increasingly frustrated by repeated reports of their military involvement in the ongoing conflict.

“The sides treated the war with great caution. We have to take it seriously and show them their own thinking about their capabilities and the quality of the opportunity that is opening up at the moment. It probably disappointed the expectations of some reckless planners in the US and Israel, who did not seem to appreciate the local dynamics,” said Winthrop Rogers of Chatham House.

According to Faramarzi, the Komala Party’s main role was “in organizing, supporting and strengthening civil and protest movements throughout Iran,” and that was what the government was concerned about. “With these attacks, the Islamic Republic is trying to weaken that political and organizational potential and at the same time send a message of threat to all opposition forces,” he said.

The White House’s offer to join the adventure being prepared by the Mossad and the CIA put the Iranian Kurds in a difficult position. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Erbil’s ruling party (Barzani clan), is affiliated with the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, which according to some reports was to lead the armed demonstrations. But Kurdish leaders had little reason to trust the Trump administration, to say the least, after what happened to the Syrian Kurds, whom the US abandoned in favor of the al-Shara regime in Damascus.։

According to Kurdish sources, the US-Israeli plan also provided for the participation of Peshmerga forces, the armed forces of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, in the insurgency., because the Americans were suspicious of the possibilities of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, but did not support the idea in Erbil.

Mehmet Alaça, a Turkish expert on Iraq, said that increasing military pressure by Tehran may inadvertently push opposition Kurdish factions such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, Komala and the Kurdistan Freedom Party to align with the West, especially Israel. “The Kurdistan region of Iraq, in whose territory these groups have been located for many years, will suffer the biggest losses in case of such a development of events.

Besides the risk of turning the region into a new front for competition between Iran and Israel, this scenario could further weaken the balance between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (Iraq), a party led by the Talabani family.

In addition, it may give Tehran an opportunity to further expand its influence in the region under the pretext of ensuring security.”

According to Alachi, Turkey sought to reduce Iran’s influence in northern Iraq by establishing ties with the traditionally “pro-American/pro-Iranian” Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) with namely, Deputy Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government and high-ranking representative of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Ghubad Talabani, to Ankara. visit time.

On July 1, Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin traveled to Sulaymaniyah to hold talks with the leadership of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan on the resumption of Turkey’s peace efforts against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and regional security issues.

Ankara’s close ties with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (Erbil) are well known, while relations with the Democratic Union Party have deteriorated over allegations that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party has allegedly expanded its activities around Sulaymaniyah.

In 2023, Turkey closed its airspace to flights departing from Sulaymaniyah International Airport, citing the activities of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The ban was lifted in October 2025, after a peaceful initiative to disarm Kurdistan Workers’ Party fighters entered an active phase.

“After the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Kurdistan Patriotic Party, despite their fierce competition on many issues, adopted a common position that Iranian Kurdish opposition groups should not participate in the Iranian conflict. The most important aspect for Turkey is the peace process and the new security architecture it seeks to create after the defeat of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

The spread of the rivalry between Iran and Israel to Iraqi Kurdistan and the return of the Kurdish question to the center of the regional power struggle will directly undermine Turkey’s long-term security calculations.Alachi thinks.

Masrur Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, recently gave an interview to “Al Jazeera” TV channel. denied any “pressure” to draw the region into war with Iran, and also stated that Erbil authorities do not support relations with Israel, while ties with Syria and Turkey are deepening and characterized by “mutual cooperation”. Of course it is, though the forces that seek to once again light the fuse of the “Kurdish issue” will not give up their intentions just like that.

ALEXANDER GRIGOREV

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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