The new model of Russian presence in Syria and Fidan’s review of the Caucasian Pact.

After nearly 1.5 years of intense negotiations between the Syrian Arab Republic and the Russian Federation, the parties signed a memorandum of understanding that regulates the future of the Russian military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim.

According to it, civilian facilities will be under Syrian control, and Russian military bases will become joint training centers.

The memorandum sets a maximum period of three months to complete the transition period, after which the new arrangements will enter into force.

It should be noted that in January 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the Kremlin. During the negotiations, the parties discussed the issue of the presence of the Russian military in Syria or the fate of the Russian military bases.

What does the Damascus-Moscow new format cooperation entail, or what is its strategic significance?

Syria regains full sovereignty over its own territory and civil infrastructure, while maintaining important military-technical support. And Russia maintains its geopolitical presence in the Middle East and the Mediterranean Sea, but reduces military spending and direct military risks.

Here we cannot fail to notice the visible and invisible factor of Turkey, especially if we remember the visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Russia in June, the content of the negotiations with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the statements made after that. In particular, Lavrov announced.

“We have agreed to closely cooperate in matters of security in the Black Sea region, as well as in the Transcaucasia, the Middle East, and North Africa. We have good relations with Turkish partners everywhere. We work on the principle or basis of complementarity.”

In other words, essentially, the transformation of the Russian military presence in Syria (the transformation of military bases into joint training centers) takes place within the framework of pre-agreed and mutual agreements with Ankara, if we do not say that the Damascus-Moscow memorandum is the result of broader Moscow-Ankara strategic negotiations and redistribution of regional influence zones.

It should be noted that about two years ago, Turkey actively began to support the formation and development of a new regular army in Syria, involving Turkish military specialists and consultants. And now Turkey declares that it wants to develop economic relations with Syria in accordance with the requirements of the modern world, which, in particular, implies the harmonization of transport infrastructures in order to increase the volume of bilateral trade.

Now, slightly deviating from the topic, we consider it necessary to draw attention to an episode. A few days ago, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the “Joint Defense of Mecca” agreement, to which, as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said, they hope that “Egypt will join in the next phase”. At the same time, he noted, without naming names, that there are also other states that want to join this agreement. But the remarkable episode concerns another statement of Fidan.

“For example, Azerbaijan and Armenia are moving towards concluding a final peace agreement, and Ankara supports that process. In that case, prospects appear in the field of security and economy. And over time, the need for a similar agreement – the creation of a defense alliance – may arise in the Caucasus as well.”,- stated the Foreign Minister of Turkey.

According to Fidan, it is important to strengthen the commitment to the region, because the external hegemons do not solve the problems of the region, but only aggravate them, and the price is very high.

“The countries of the region need to move in the direction of creating more institutional mechanisms, which will allow to guarantee their own security, economic stability, development and prosperity”– he emphasized he

Basically, not excluding the possibility of a defense pact in the South Caucasus, Fidan “declassifies” one of the most ambitious strategic plans of Ankara.

Although this is still at the level of a statement, can we consider the creation of a Caucasian alliance parallel to CSTO or replacing it as an attempt to push Russia out of the South Caucasus? In other words, a “new security system” is offered to Armenia, where Turkey becomes a guarantor. We are not yet talking about the increasing influence of Turkey as a serious threat to Tehran.

What happens? on the one hand, Russia goes to “military” restrictions in Syria, trying to maintain its presence in the form of training centers, instead, Turkey raises the issue of creating a defense alliance in the Caucasus, according to the need of the moment.

And in this case, how should Lavrov’s thought be understood? “Russia closely cooperates with the Turkish side also in matters of security in the Transcaucasia”. for now let’s leave it to the test of time.

Anyway, let’s make a few reminders. First, In November, CSTO members will discuss the issue of depriving Armenia of voting rights in the organization’s bodies due to non-payment of membership fees. And in recent years, the need for an Iran-Russia-Armenia or Iran-Armenia military alliance was discussed from time to time at different levels, especially when there is a Turkey-Azerbaijan Shushi declaration.

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