Russia is increasing pressure on Armenia with the aim of preventing Yerevan’s geopolitical turn to the West and forcing to clarify the country’s strategic vector. Experts and former senior officials warn that Armenia’s political and economic “diversification” attempts are accompanied by vital challenges, and Western security and economic alternatives still remain unrealistic or difficult to access.
Analysts note the same trend in both political and economic dimensions. Moscow has decided not to tolerate Yerevan’s uncertainty, forcing Yerevan to either make a final choice and pay the price, or abandon its choice to join the European Union.
As a result, Russia has blocked the export of Armenian agricultural products to its market, while persistently demanding that Armenia make a final decision through a referendum. Does the country remain in the EAEU or does it take the path leading to EU integration and “civilized divorce” with Russia? At the same time, official Yerevan insists that a referendum on EU or EAEU membership will take place in Armenia only when the country submits an official application for EU membership.
A political and security dilemma
According to Arman Grigoryan, professor of Lehigh University, USA, doctor of political sciences, what Yerevan calls “diversification” of relations is actually a sharp change in strategic orientation. He notes that a dangerous discourse and an illusion detached from reality have been formed in Armenia.
“It seems to us that after the departure of the Russians, we will end up in the European paradise,” says Grigoryan, stressing that the West will not provide real security guarantees to Armenia.
According to the political scientist, Moscow is resorting to preventive actions because, especially against the background of the US’s failures in the war with Iran, it feels more confident and realizes the degree of economic dependence of Armenia on its market. Grigoryan considers the possible withdrawal of the Russian military base from Armenia to be particularly worrying (although such an issue is not discussed in the political agenda of Armenia or RA-Russian relations), which, in his opinion, plays the role of a “tripwire”. without this factor, Armenia will find itself in a highly vulnerable position in front of the demarches of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Economic stress and closing markets
These security complications are immediately coupled with a harsh Russian economic calculus. Former Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia, Professor of the American University of Armenia Vache Gabrielyan clarifies that the crisis in Armenian-Russian trade in recent months, particularly the blocking of perishable agricultural products at the border, has a clear political purpose, not a technical one.
By targeting tomatoes and fresh produce, which, unlike alcohol, cannot last long in warehouses, Russia is dealing a quick and painful financial blow to Armenia. “At this moment, the Russians want to introduce certainty, being sure that we cannot introduce such certainty,” explains Gabrielyan.
According to the former deputy prime minister, Moscow is putting Yerevan in front of a difficult dilemma, demanding clarity between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union (EU). “Russia is doing this so that Armenia either makes a choice and pays the price for it, or withdraws from its choice and wears it out,” he emphasizes.
Weakness of alternatives
Both speakers agree that the transition “toward the West” announced by Armenia faces objective and deep structural obstacles. If from the military-political point of view it is the lack of hard guarantees from the West, then from the economic point of view it is the logistical and standardization problems.
Referring to the government’s efforts to redirect Armenian exports to Europe, Vache Gabrielyan warns that they cannot give results quickly. He reminds about the “law of gravity” of economic trade. Strict European certification requirements, complex logistics and the need for long-term marketing do not allow political decisions to quickly change the economic ties that have been built by business over the years.
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