168: Imports from Turkey and Azerbaijan are gaining momentum

The import of Turkish and Azerbaijani goods to Armenia is gaining momentum. If until recently the official statistics recorded only trade with Turkey, now Azerbaijan has also increased. But Armenia’s trade relations with both Turkey and Azerbaijan are one-sided. Those relations are based exclusively on imports of Turkish and Azerbaijani products.

While the Armenian authorities are enthusiastic about Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani contacts and aspirations to trade, there were no exports from Armenia to those countries, and there are still no exports to those countries.

Exports from Armenia to Turkey are almost at zero level.

According to official data, in the first 5 months of this year, only 330 thousand dollars worth of goods went to that country. It is difficult to even consider this as an export, despite the fact that exports even doubled compared to the same period last year.

In the first 5 months of last year, almost 160 thousand dollars worth of goods were exported, this year 330 thousand dollars worth of goods were exported. Exports doubled, but remained at the same zero level.

In the conditions of such volumes, it is not even important what products went to Turkey.

There was no export to Azerbaijan at all. Instead, Azerbaijan is gradually increasing its presence in Armenia’s imports. That process started at the end of last year. In December of last year, a small amount of oil products, about 1 million dollars, was exported from Azerbaijan to Armenia. At that time, it caused serious complaints among consumers. Many refused to consume Azerbaijani oil products. However, over time, that noise died down and now exports and imports from Azerbaijan to Armenia have become a common phenomenon.

Until now, imports from Azerbaijan have been limited mainly to oil products, but Azerbaijani oil products are gradually expanding their positions in Armenia. Already in the first 5 months of this year, imports from Azerbaijan to Armenia reached 12.2 million dollars. Azerbaijani goods worth 2.675 million were imported in January, 3.669 million in March, 4.127 million in April, and 1.742 million in May. There were no imports in February.

The import from Azerbaijan to Armenia continued even after May, but the official data on it has not been published yet.

Unlike Azerbaijani imports, Armenian products do not reach the Azerbaijani market, despite the statements of the Armenian authorities that they have exchanged product lists and such opportunities are being considered. Months later, no Armenian goods have entered Azerbaijan.

The actual Armenian-Azerbaijani trade, which inspired the Armenian leadership so much, is of an eminently one-sided nature. The entry of Armenian products to the Azerbaijani market remains closed, and the import of Azerbaijani products, particularly oil products, to Armenia is gaining momentum.

The same happens with Turkish products. Although, unlike Azerbaijan, Turkey has always had a large presence in Armenia’s imports in recent years, Turkish goods worth 300-350 million dollars come to Armenia annually.

This year, the flow of Turkish goods has grown at a much higher rate, although the border with Turkey remains closed and nothing has changed in that regard.

Recently, of course, before the parliamentary elections, the Turkish authorities, in support of their Armenian partners, took a symbolic step in trade relations and “generously” included Armenia among the countries that import goods of Turkish origin. If before that Turkish goods were coming to Armenia under the name of third countries, particularly Georgia, Armenia will be mentioned as the receiving country.

Of course, this will not give anything to the economy of Armenia, and the export of Armenian goods to the Turkish market will not gain anything from it. In the event that, under the conditions of a closed border, a record export from Turkey to Armenia was recorded this year: more than 185 million dollars in 5 months. In the same period of last year, it was much less, it was around 128 million dollars.

This year, the export of Turkish goods to Armenia increased by 57 million or 44 percent. In case of going at the same pace, it can reach up to 500 million dollars by the end of the year.

It is not difficult to imagine what will happen when the border opens. It is not surprising that at the moment, the Turkish side estimates the potential of Armenian-Turkish trade at 1 billion dollars per year. It is clear that this potential will fall mainly on Turkish imports. After the opening of the border, the simplification of logistics problems and the reduction of transportation costs, the flow of salivary goods will increase even more. Turkish businessmen have a great appetite for the Armenian market. The competitiveness of domestic products will increase further after the opening of the borders, creating problems for those engaged in the production of various local products, especially agricultural products.

Even today, Turkey attacks Armenia’s consumer markets with various products: clothing, food, metals, household appliances, construction materials, chemical products, etc. And Armenia continues to have no presence in the Turkish market. Not much will change even after the opening of the border.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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