Election results and the fate of Armenia: EAEU or EU?

The Armenian Parliament started working with a new political composition on August 2, almost 2 months after the elections. The Central Electoral Commission of Armenia has officially summarized and distributed the mandates of the National Assembly, thus completing the electoral process. Nikol Pashinyan was re-elected as Prime Minister.

Moreover, the leaders of Russia and China did not send public congratulatory messages to Nikol Pashinyan. «Civil contract» to the party leader on his election victory, although similar congratulations were sent in 2018 and 2021. Usually, congratulations of this level are considered not only as a ceremonial necessity, but also as a political impulse in the context of bilateral relations. Apparently, the silence should be understood as a diplomatic gesture, especially considering the role of Russia and China in Armenia’s foreign policy agenda. The works of the National Assembly of Armenia of this convocation also took place without the blessing of the Catholicos of All Armenians.

As for Russia, immediately after the elections in Armenia, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov warned that Moscow will express its attitude towards them after the announcement of the final results. “For now, we are carefully recording all the messages that appear around these elections. Among them, we also record the messages about the many violations that took place during these elections,” the representative of the Kremlin clarified.

More is tough to express Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of the Russian Federation and currently the vice-chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. «RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s attempts to eliminate his rivals on the eve of the parliamentary elections make the voting illegitimate»:

It was expected that after the elections in Armenia, the burning of passions would subside.  However, the situation, on the contrary, has worsened. In response to opposition forces not recognizing the election results, the government unleashed a large-scale campaign of political repression. In the period that passed after the elections, the CEC of Armenia satisfied the request of the Prosecutor General’s Office to deprive former President Robert Kocharyan of his immunity from immunity and initiate (initiate) a criminal case against him. They blocked his departure from the country.

Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the “Strong Armenia” alliance under investigation, which also entered the parliament (29 mandates), said that a total of 760 members of his political organization were persecuted under various pretexts.

Avetik Chalabyan, coordinator of “HayaVote” public movement, Andranik Tevanyan, leader of “Mother Armenia” party (“Mother Armenia” merged with “Prosperous Armenia” party (PAP) to participate in the elections), Aregnaz Manukyan, a member of “Prosperous Armenia” party, were arrested. The criminal prosecution against PAP leader Gagik Tsarukyan began two days after the end of the parliamentary elections, on June 9, when he announced that his party’s votes were “miscalculated” (deceived) due to his refusal to play the role of a “pocket” opposition in the parliament. The point is that, after Tsarukyan’s resignation, the CEC adjusted (changed) the number of votes received by the party so that it could not overcome the 4% barrier necessary to enter the parliament.

On the morning of July 6, on the day of his visit to Yekaterinburg to meet with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin within the framework of the “Innoprom-2026” international industrial exhibition, Nikol Pashinyan issued an order to suspend the activities of almost all companies of the “Multi Group” concern, including the “Araratcement” factory, whose owner is Tsarukyan. Large-scale searches were conducted in the companies of this concern, as well as in the apartments of their directors and Tsarukyan’s house itself. The investigative committee of the Republic has confirmed that searches are being carried out simultaneously at more than 70 addresses related to Tsarukyan and his companies. The employees of his “Multi Stone” factory went out into the street. They demanded an explanation as to why the workshops and warehouses for finished products were sealed, stating that they had nothing to pay for utilities and feed the children. Tsarukyan himself, being in the investigative isolation cell, accused the authorities of hitting the economy.

The actions against Tsarukyan on the day of Pashinyan’s visit to Russia can hardly be considered a coincidence. According to Armenian analysts, the Prime Minister hoped to “improve his negotiating position” in this way. According to them, “Pashinyan decided to take Tsarukyan hostage in order to bargain with Russia”, for example, in exchange for opening the Russian market for Armenian products.

Another subject of blackmail, the Prime Minister of Armenia recently chose the “South Caucasian Railway”, the infrastructure of which was handed over to the 100-percent daughter of Russian Railways under the concession agreement until 2038, and threatened Demand 2 billion dollars from Russia for this concession։

Political scientists agree that Moscow has invested too many resources in the Armenian economy to simply turn a blind eye to attempts to nationalize joint ventures. We are talking about railways, trade projects and the strategic North-South transport corridor. Russia has every right to protect its investments. If Yerevan decides to finally break off relations, it will have to raise the issue of compensation. The Armenian leadership, showing loyalty to the West, risks losing the privileges it received almost for free.

It is not the first time that the Prime Minister of Armenia plays a double game. Apparently, he wanted to repeat the combination when he organized a summit of the European political community in Yerevan in early May and arrived in Moscow almost simultaneously for a meeting with the Russian president. However this time, the Kremlin did not grant him the high-level meeting he had promised his voters immediately after the election.  Had to get to a meeting with Prime Minister Mishustin, which he made public admitted:

The Prime Minister of Armenia reconciled with the lowering of the status of the negotiations.  The point is that in Armenia the prime minister is the de facto head of state, and in Russia the head of state is the president. V. V. Putin met N.V. quite often. with Pashinyan. Since 2018, the Prime Minister of Armenia has visited Russia 32 times in order to participate in bilateral negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation, EAEU, CIS and CSTO summits, as well as international forums. In 2024-2026 alone, he visited Russia seven times, where economic and integration cooperation, energy, transport links in the South Caucasus, the work of the Armenian NPP, the regional agenda and military-technical cooperation were discussed. He almost always met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Now, especially after the continued persecution of pro-Russian opposition politicians and businessmen, contacts with him are likely to remain on a pragmatic basis, as the economic ties between the two states are too deep to be severed by a single decision.

Moreover, Moscow refused congratulations and lowered the level of representation (the Armenian Prime Minister was met at the airport by the deputy head of the State Protocol Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry), demonstrating its attitude towards Yerevan’s current policy.

However, Pashinyan decided to make his first official visit to Russia after the elections, because the practical significance of the visit was more important for Yerevan than diplomatic etiquette.

Experts see this visit as Armenia’s attempt to find a balance between European promises and real economic losses.  The main task of the Prime Minister of Armenia was probably to return Armenian capital to the Russian market and restore full trade. Such haste is probably related to the fact that hopes for financial support from the European Union did not justify themselves. Prime Minister Mishustin did not give any concrete guarantees to Pashinyan, because Moscow wants to follow Yerevan’s further practical steps. In fact, this allows us to talk about the failure of Pashinyan’s mission to Yekaterinburg. Armenia remains in an uncertain state in that direction.

RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Yekaterinburg followed the recent negotiations in Yerevan with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who promised much less than expected and demanded by Yerevan. The European Union refuses to provide any legally binding guarantees, especially in the field of trade, limiting itself to small monetary tranches and easing in the import of Armenian products. No documents were signed during the visit. only announcements were made about the prospects of cooperation, which has little to do with the real and current problems of Armenian farmers and other producers. Von der Leyen also stated that the EU is ready to help Armenia diversify its energy sources, citing Ukraine and Moldova as examples.  European countries, despite loud announcements about sanctions, continue to buy Russian energy through third countries. Basically, Armenia is offered to buy three times the same, but with a “non-Russian” label, to formally match the anti-Russian rhetoric.

In addition, the Armenian NPP works with Russian technologies, uses Russian nuclear fuel, and is serviced by Russian specialists. Such a system cannot be changed by a single political decision. it will take years and multi-billion investments.

The leadership of Armenia has found itself in a difficult situation. From May to the end of July, Russia gradually introduced bans and restrictions on the import of almost all agricultural products from Armenia, from flowers and fresh vegetables to fish and dairy products, almost all of Armenia’s food exports to the Russian Federation came under restrictions. Since up to 90-94% of Armenian fruit and vegetable, flower and fish exports went to the Russian market, the blow was quite significant. According to the data of the Food Safety Inspection Authority of Armenia, in June 2026, the export of agricultural products to Russia will increase sharply. has decreased (collapsed). by 74.5% compared to June 2025. Experts: Armenia’s potential losses from the severance of integration ties with Russia they appreciate up to 14% of GDP. Moreover, it will not be difficult for Russia to replace Armenian products. Armenia’s share in the gross merchandise turnover does not exceed 0.9%, and the indicator of Armenian supplies to the rest of the EAEU countries is even lower., said Reshetnikov, head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

At first glance, the restrictions on imports from Armenia have a political context, but at the same time, experts note the systemic managerial crisis in Armenia. After the dissolution of the Ministry of Agriculture by order of Pashinyan in 2019, the state control system was disrupted. Hundreds of small companies are now entering the market, whose products are often of “unknown origin”. Thus, re-export schemes have been revealed, when products from third countries are imported into Armenia without phytosanitary control, repackaged and sent to the Russian Federation as “Armenian”. Russia insists on the implementation of the Russian “Mercury” type digital traceability system (the “Mercury digital traceability system is the Federal State Information System”) created by Rosselkhoznadzor (Federal Service of Veterinary and Phytosanitary Control) to control the circulation of animal products. It allows you to follow the path of the product from the producer to the final consumer, ensuring veterinary safety and traceability), which Yerevan is not yet technically ready for.

In this regard, we should not talk about the political context of the restrictions, but about the previous unfair concession to the quality of imports from Armenia. Economist Gagik Makaryan, president of the Union of Employers of Armenia, also agrees with this. “I do not agree with those experts who see a political context in everything. In most cases, Rosselkhoznadzor’s inspections and assessments are completely reliable. We really have problems.”

The Armenian leadership tried to sell the public the illusion of a quick turnaround. On the eve of the elections, Nikol Pashinyan promised Armenian farmers to solve the issues of the supply of various agricultural products to the Russian Federation immediately after the vote. He said that the deterioration of relations with Moscow is temporary, and as soon as he is re-elected, trade will be restored. However, this did not happen. The Russian market did not open, and it cannot be replaced in one season. Money transfers cannot be replaced by declarations. Gas at an acceptable price cannot be replaced by political applause. Pashinyan convinced the citizens that entering the European markets would compensate for the damage caused by the break with Russia.  However, so far these promises have not been backed up by actual contracts or finance. Unlike the EAEU, the European Union offers complex and bureaucratized support schemes, and in the Eurasian Union, the rules are more transparent, and access to partners’ markets has not been the first year to bring concrete benefits to Armenian producers.

We have repeatedly warned that, even if Brussels actually opens its platforms a little for Armenian producers, in order for Armenian products to really appear on European counters, it is necessary to pass certification, meet strict quality standards, find counterparties, sign long-term contracts and ensure stable logistics.  And even when all these procedures are passed, European farmers will force the governments of their countries to stop the entry of competitors, as happened with Ukrainian products.

On July 2, 2026, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the introduction of autonomous trade measures that will exempt up to 80% of EU Armenian exports (fresh fruits, vegetables, beverages and alcohol) from customs duties. A €52 million support package and the deployment of experts to support certification were also announced. However, On July 23, 2026, Politico reportedthat the EU actually rejected Armenian tomatoes. supplies never started due to non-compliance with EU standards. Authors of the article wordthe promises were pre-election in nature and were given to ensure Pashinyan’s victory in the parliamentary elections:

A similar situation has been created with fish. on July 16, the RA government approved the procedure for fish export to the EU, but in practice, the certification and logistics were not ready, and the European market showed no interest. Armenian representatives of fish farms had to hold a protest in front of the government building, demanding to develop real and effective mechanisms of state support to the sector due to serious export problems. According to the participants of the action, about 15,000 tons of fish products have already accumulated in warehouses, which they cannot send to foreign markets after the closure of Russian products.

Armenian farmers also organized a protest action, blocking the Yerevan-Yeraskh international highway, which leads to the border with Iran. The protesters demand to solve the problems of selling the crops. Ursula von der Leyen’s promised 52 million euro aid and the government’s own compensation ($22 million) either did not reach the producers or did not compensate for the loss of the main market.

The key question today is not whether the EU market is legally open, but how open it is in practice. If the producers are forced to protest, then there is a serious gap between the official statements and the real situation.

Experts with data“Many European countries have already alerted the EU leadership that they are not ready to open their markets to Armenian products to the detriment of national producers.”

Of course, as propaganda actions, the EU will organize demonstration purchases, such as the same 10,000 roses that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent from Armenia to Latvia.: However, the volume of these supplies to the EU will be incomparable with the previous volume of exports to the Russian Federation. Russia has remained the main sales market for decades, thanks to already existing logistics routes, common EAEU technical requirements and stable business ties. It is impossible to rebuild such a system in a short time.

It is fundamentally important to note that von der Leyen’s July visit to Armenia took place on the eve of the decision of the Constitutional Court regarding the legitimacy of the last elections. Due to multiple violations, the court could order a second round. Դիտորդները կարծում են, որ Ուրսուլա ֆոն դեր Լայենի Երևան գալը և նրա խոստումները նման սցենարը բացառելու և ստատուս-քվոն ամրագրելու ակցիա էր:

Indeed, on July 4, the CC rejected all the opposition’s complaints, leaving the CEC’s decision in force. In response, five opposition forces – Strong Armenia and Hayastan alliances, Prosperous Armenia, Armenian National Congress and National-Democratic Pole parties issued a joint statement calling the court’s decision the beginning of a new phase of political resistance. The main goal was declared to remove the current leadership from power as the only condition for the restoration of the constitutional order. Opposition blocs that have entered parliament have chosen to gain parliamentary seats, seeing them as political leverage to oppose the authorities. However, resistance strategies also include street demonstrations, building systemic institutional structures, and working with the population to create public demand for change.

In light of this, neither Moscow nor other EAEU members are going to sponsor Armenia’s move to Europe.A joint statement was agreed with the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan at the EAEU summit held in Astana on May 29. In it, they expressed concern “in connection with the preparation of the Republic of Armenia’s accession to the European Union, as well as the need to prevent harm to the member states of the Union.” In this regard, they demanded from the leadership of Armenia to decide on the future direction of integration: “to hold a nationwide referendum in the Republic of Armenia as soon as possible on whether to join the European Union or to be part of the EAEU in the future.” regarding”. It was also decided that by December 2026, the members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council (the EAEU body consisting of the prime ministers of the participating countries) will assess the risks of possible suspension of Armenia’s membership in the Union.

In other words, EAEU members insist that the historical choice that will determine the future fate of Armenia should be made not by the current leadership, which enjoys the support of only less than half of the population, but by all its citizens, publicly and democratically. Then it will be the people’s own choice and their own responsibility.

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a telephone conversation with Nikol Pashinyan on July 27 (the conversation took place at the initiative of Yerevan) confirmed his loyalty to the joint statement of EAEU members in response to the request of the Prime Minister of Armenia to take measures to settle the situation related to the import of Armenian products, which have entered the panorama of the political crisis.

Judging by everything, the Armenian leadership will have to find a compromise between the commitments to the Western partners and the objective dependence of the Armenian economy on cooperation with the EAEU. In this sense, Pashinyan’s government will not be able to endlessly dodge between Europe, where it aspires on an ideological level, and Russia, on which it depends practically.

ALEXANDER ANANEV

Retired senior adviser to the Russian Foreign Ministry

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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