TRIPP Plays Role in Reordering of Eurasian Trade Routes

Irakli Laitadze

TRIPP Plays Role in Reordering of Eurasian Trade Routes

Executive Summary:

• Civil Contract’s victory in Armenia’s elections reinforced its pro-Western stance and its peace talks with Azerbaijan, enabling the U.S.-backed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) and its integration with the Middle Corridor via Central Asia and South Caucasus.
• Armenia can become a key transport hub, improving Türkiye–Azerbaijan connectivity and deepening peace ties while boosting its economy. Georgia may face rivalry to its transit routes, but its Black Sea ports will ensure deep integration into the expanded network.
• If successfully realized, TRIPP could foster greater economic interdependence, support regional peace and stability, and contribute to the emergence of a more interconnected South Caucasus and wider region.

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Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections were not only a vote for Armenia’s future geopolitical trajectory between the West and Russia. They were also a vote for the future path of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process (see EDM, June 5, 17, 22). The development of transit corridors through the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a major component of the ongoing peace process (see EDM, May 22). Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-Western Civil Contract party’s victory in the parliamentary elections maintained Armenia’s trajectory toward peace and the West.

The West has expressed support for Armenia’s democratic pursuits and the peace process with Azerbaijan both before and after the elections (see EDM, May 11, June 3). The latest demonstration of this support was European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Yerevan on July 2. She unveiled solid economic measures that will help Armenia become more economically resilient (European Commission, July 2; see EDM, July 20). On July 16, the Armenian government approved a draft law for the ratification of the Framework Agreement on Strategic Cooperation between Armenia and the United States for the TRIPP project. According to Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the agreement “further elaborates on the agreed details and areas of cooperation” consistent with the Washington Declaration signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the United States on August 8, 2025, and a document defining the implementation of TRIPP signed by the U.S. State Department and Armenian Foreign Ministry on January 13 (see EDM, August 12; Armenpress, July 16). The Washington Declaration included the opening of new transport and communication channels, including the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) connecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia’s Syunik Province (Yerevan Today, August 9, 2025).

The electoral victory of pro-Western forces in Armenia opens a window of opportunity for the major infrastructure project connecting Azerbaijan and Armenia for the first time in decades. The configuration of South Caucasus trade, energy transit flows, and geopolitical influence will be dependent on TRIPP’s realization (News Armenia, November 17, 2025)

 TRIPP created a framework where transport and energy transit corridors will function under Armenian jurisdiction, guaranteeing uninterrupted operation of the route between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. Before the TRIPP framework was agreed upon in Washington, the route was referred to as the Zangezur Corridor in Azerbaijan. For Azerbaijan, this corridor is a direct tie between two separated territories of the country, while for Armenia, it had been a concern of its sovereignty over Syunik (News.am, September 6, 2024). Zangezur can be considered a physical landline, while the TRIPP connectivity project is political and commercial. The latter is a reconceptualized Zangezur corridor. TRIPP means creating the whole system of infrastructure, including railway, motorway, energy-carrier routes, digital networks, and logistical hubs. According to the abovementioned declarations, the development of TRIPP must be executed with the participation of the United States and mutually determined third parties (Business Media, July 17). 

TRIPP will increase trade, cargo turnover, and transactional costs and will further strengthen the trade route between Europe, Türkiye, South Caucasus, and Central Asia while bypassing Russia. Circumventing Russia is already a heavy political component, as it will allow trade with less dependence on the politically charged and unpredictable Russian route amid its war against Ukraine. TRIPP will also play an important role in the political integration of the South Caucasus. Its realization will foster peace and normalization not only in Armenian–Azerbaijan relations, but in  Armenian–Turkish relations as well (Kavkasia, May 4; see EDM, May 22).

TRIPP is not a stand-alone megaproject. It forms part of a broader regional connectivity framework. It will be linked to the Middle Corridor, an east–west trade corridor connecting the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye (Ankasam, May 15).

For Armenia, the opening of new transport routes will represent the largest economic transformation the country has experienced since the collapse of the Soviet Union. TRIPP will break the land blockade Armenia has faced since the early 1990s as a result of the First Karabakh War. The new transport corridor will position Armenia at the crossroads of major regional trade flows. This shift would make Armenia, and Syunik province in particular, an increasingly attractive destination for foreign direct investment. Armenia will diversify its foreign economic relations, decrease its dependence on a limited number of trade partners,  and create multiple jobs.  As peace takes hold and stability endures over time, Armenia’s appeal to international investors is likely to grow steadily, gradually transforming Armenia into a dynamic economic corridor (Anadolu Ajansı, June 9).

For Azerbaijan, the successful implementation of TRIPP would deliver economic gains. By establishing a direct transport link between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave, the corridor would enhance connectivity while reducing transit times and costs. Greater integration into regional transport networks, particularly into the Middle Corridor, would reinforce the country’s economic resilience. The project will encourage investment in logistics centers, customs facilities, and industrial zones along the route. Over time, these developments will create jobs, support regional economic growth, and improve the efficiency of Azerbaijan’s logistics sector, further consolidating Baku’s position as a leading transportation and commercial hub in the South Caucasus (AZERTAC, September 24, 2025).

Georgia became a connecting link between Europe, Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia amid Türkiye and Azerbaijan’s blockade of Armenia. The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Southern Gas Corridor, and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway all run through Georgian territory. Realizing TRIPP, however, could lead to problems for Georgia. If a portion of the goods from Azerbaijan and Central Asia are moved via Armenia and Nakhchivan, then the BTK railway will have diminished cargo turnover. With its Black Sea ports, Georgia will still have an important role in transit routes. Additionally, if Georgia develops its Black Sea infrastructure such as the Anaklia Black Sea port and continues to upgrade its transport infrastructure, it will solidify its key role in the new, wider transport infrastructure (Sputnik Georgia, December 5, 2025; see EDM, July 16).

Türkiye is one of the beneficiaries of TRIPP (see EDM, May 22). The route would deepen Ankara’s economic and political engagement with the South Caucasus and Central Asia, supporting its strategic objective of expanding its influence throughout the Turkic world and immediate neighborhood (see EDM, April 28, May 19, 21). TRIPP would further enhance Türkiye’s role as a key bridge between Europe and Asia and strengthen its position within the Middle Corridor. The project will generate economic benefits through increased trade, investment, and transit revenues. At the same time, improved regional connectivity would advance Türkiye’s ambition to serve as a major transportation and energy hub linking Europe with the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the PRC.

The outcome of Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections created favorable conditions for the advancement of TRIPP and the broader normalization process in the South Caucasus. TRIPP can reshape regional trade patterns and strengthen connectivity across Eurasia. Enduring mistrust between Armenia and Azerbaijan, domestic political uncertainties, and the risk of renewed tensions, however, could complicate implementation. If successfully realized, TRIPP could foster greater economic interdependence, support regional peace and stability, and contribute to the emergence of a more interconnected South Caucasus and wider region.

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