168: The end of diplomatic maneuvers. Hard conditions for referendum ahead of Putin in Yerevan

A month and a half after the parliamentary elections held in Armenia, Pashinyan had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin. This became the second successful phone call to the Russian Federation after the elections, the first of which was addressed to the Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, which was followed by Pashinyan’s visit to the Russian Federation and the meeting with Mishustin.

According to estimates, Pashinyan was not warmly received in Russia, and the economic problems that started during the pre-election period were not resolved. Perhaps the proof of this was the fact that recently the Russian side also blocked the entry of Armenian dairy products to the Russian market.

And in fact, after these efforts, Pashinyan initiates a call to the President of the Russian Federation. According to the official Russian Kremlin, the phone call was initiated by Pashinyan. By the way, it is also noteworthy that on July 22, after Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Germany, Pashinyan, who was on vacation, had a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, then on July 25 with French President Emmanuel Macron, and on July 27 with Vladimir Putin. According to the press release of the RA government, Pashinyan and Putin exchanged views on the agenda of Armenia-Russia relations, in particular, the problems arising in bilateral economic relations.

“Prime Minister Pashinyan emphasized that the restrictions on the export of goods of Armenian origin to the Russian market contradict the framework of the Armenia-Russia legal agreement and the regulations of the Eurasian Economic Union, and asked for measures to be taken to resolve these issues.

Regarding the holding of a referendum in Armenia on the issue of membership of the European Union, as stated in the joint statement of the leaders of the four EAEU member states on May 29, Prime Minister Pashinyan emphasized that the holding of the referendum is practically possible only after Armenia sends an official application to the European Union and makes the topic a subject.

At the same time, Prime Minister Pashinyan emphasized the readiness of the Government of the Republic of Armenia to solve the mentioned issues through an open, partnership and friendly dialogue,” the message said.

In the Kremlin’s message, there were no other details of the conversation, no mention of Pashinyan’s speech, there was only an ultimatum addressed to RA.

According to the Kremlin, the Russian president reaffirmed his loyalty to the joint statement of the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia at the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) summit held in Astana on May 29, 2026, which refers to the steps taken by the Republic of Armenia towards joining the European Union.

“Particularly, Vladimir Putin emphasized the need to hold a nationwide referendum in Armenia as soon as possible on the matter of joining the European Union or remaining a part of the Eurasian Economic Union,” said the official Russian message. This telephone conversation was followed today by the message of the Russian foreign intelligence that the EU demands from Pashinyan’s government to reduce the presence of Russian business in strategic areas and to sever humanitarian ties with the Russian Federation.

It is said that the EU plans to encourage Armenia’s anti-Russian moves at the expense of manipulating visa liberalization prospects, many European countries have already alerted the EU leadership that they are not ready to open their markets to Armenian products.

“The increasing economic problems of the EU will not give it the opportunity to compensate Yerevan for the costs of leaving the EAEU,” says the text distributed by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. It also states that Brussels should not hope that “EEU countries will not allow Yerevan’s political staff to drown, will keep it afloat and sponsor its marathon swim to the EU.”

Returning to the official message of the Russian side regarding the Pashinyan-Putin telephone conversation, it should be noted that the official messages are not purely informative statements, but act as a dictating tool revealing the real agenda and political goals of the parties.

This specific wording directly reveals the harsh attitude of Moscow and the open ultimatum of the Russian authorities to the leadership of Armenia, forcing to clarify the foreign political vector of the country.

By the way, as can be understood from the two messages, the Russian side considers the referendum expedient as soon as possible, and the Armenian side believes that it should not be held now, but only when RA submits an application for EU membership, however, it is not known when RA will submit such an application.

This disagreement shows that the parties are trying to dictate their own schedule and logic of the process.

While Moscow seeks to speed up the resolution and confront Armenia with a tough dilemma by demanding to clarify the vector now, Yerevan prefers to maintain room for maneuver, linking the process to the legal and diplomatic next steps, namely to submit a formal application to the EU.

However, the issue is that the EU does not offer the prospect of membership to RA, and the RA authorities know this best, therefore, the logic of the processes suggests that the RA authorities were inclined to reduce the level of political contacts with Russia, but not to leave the EAEU, not to stop economic cooperation with Russia as much as possible, before creating some opportunities for the diversification agenda of the RA economy. However, Russia rejects this agenda.

By the way, this is not news for the Russian side, which regularly heard the following statement from Pashinyan during the EAEU sessions in recent years: “The Eurasian Economic Union should remain exclusively an economic union.” And the Russian side at this stage no longer tolerates this policy and presented an ultimatum without maintaining the veil of alliance relations, without maintaining the necessary protocol of relations, without congratulating Pashinyan after the elections.

And in fact, the RA authorities have been given time until December. It is known that the EAEU 4 presidents will discuss the possible consequences of ending Armenia’s membership in December. The leaders of the four EAEU member states stated in the statement adopted in Astana that they “share the position on the need to hold a referendum in Armenia on the issue of joining the European Union or remaining a part of the Eurasian Economic Union in the shortest possible time”, which was expressed earlier by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In the end, this phone call was not a settlement of the existing problems, but another record of the complex confrontation expected between the parties.

It is also interesting that after the conversation with Pashinyan yesterday, Russian President Putin called Ilham Aliyev today.

“After discussing the topical issues of the bilateral and international agenda, the leaders noted the constructive nature of Russian-Azerbaijani relations and the activation of dialogue between governments and relevant agencies,” the official message said.

Putin and Aliyev also reaffirmed their commitment to the further expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

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