168: There will be another fire here. 3 Caucasus countries want to use Russia’s E

168 TV–in “Diplomat” is the guest of the program diplomat, political analyst Vardan Hakobyan.

– Mr. Hakobyan, Nikol Pashinyan is starting his next term of office with a perhaps unprecedented crisis in Armenian-Russian relations, when there are no official post-election congratulations, when, in fact, the political dialogue is disrupted, when economic restrictions are applied, the last of which we heard about yesterday, when “Россельхознадзор” announced the decision to block Armenian dairy products on the Russian market. How would you describe the situation? According to you, this time the Armenian authorities will manage to reach an agreement, a deal, or have the parties already crossed the point of irreversibility?

– It is not that today’s relations with Russia are unprecedented, but the “Civil Pact” came to power with those slogans, that is, they contributed to its coming to power in Armenia from 2018, before that they were developing anti-Russian theses. And when he came to power, the first step was taken from the very first day: a certain attitude change towards Russia, which was addressed, for example, with the issue related to the CSTO, the same issue related to Artsakh. In other words, this is not news. The choice regarding Russia was made before coming to power, and it can be said that this is exactly why they came to power.

And I always remind you of its confirmation: Bolton’s visit and his statement that it is necessary to change and leave historical patterns, etc. And people have been busy with that business since that day. Another thing that, let’s say, with some economic issues, because Armenia was very strictly, especially economically, also militarily-politically dependent, is connected with Russia (of course, aside from the military-political, the most important thing is the economic), and because of economic issues, this matter was delayed.

The Russian side understood very well who came to power, what problems they have, and where all this will go, but based on the situation that has been created for Russia, in particular, the already beginning contrast with the West, the already increasing danger, the coup in Ukraine after the Maidan in 2014, etc., Russia has found itself in a very serious situation, and for this reason, some compromise positions were reached in order to contain it somewhere. delays the processes, etc., although he saw very well that Russophobia, anti-Russianism is gaining momentum in Armenia and where it will lead.

Therefore, this is not new, this is the process for which they have come and are implementing it, and it must be said that they are implementing it consistently. And as for the red lines, I don’t think the red lines have been crossed yet. In diplomacy, if they talk about red lines, I don’t know, about that type of relations, etc., then it should be understood that the Republic of Armenia does not have the degree of sovereignty to have a certain position in those relations, to be decisive. In other words, he acts under a certain external influence based on the situation of the forces that are opposed to Russia.

– According to you, why did Russia take such a tough, intolerant position at this stage? After all, the situation on the Ukrainian front is quite complicated, it is active, the relations with the West are complicated again, the negotiations with the United States are again at a rather complicated stage, why now?

– We can say that it is complicated, but we can also say that there are some processes that are not like that. Although now they are spreading a lot in the West that the Ukrainians have become more active on the Ukrainian front, that they seem to be violating, etc., these are delusions. Russia follows and consistently follows its tactics.

They know very well what they are doing, and the same applies to relations with the United States, when they say the Anchorage arrangements are finished, etc., there are other things under there. And that war is needed by Europe, Western Europe or the European Union, let’s say, in a certain sense it is also needed by many other states: the United States, neighboring states, let’s say, Turkey, or, if you like, even China, etc., because Ukraine has been made a testing ground in many directions, both to test weapons, and some diplomatic ways, etc., and to achieve certain goals in a mediated way, that is, through the lives of Ukrainians, thanks to the victims.

Now, Russia took such a position because some things have changed, the issues on the Ukrainian front are very interesting, Russia is acting very confidently, and Russia, as a state-power with a large base, with experienced diplomats, understands very well what step it is taking, what it is going after, etc. And already, when he noticed in a certain sense that his positions are being strengthened, and not, as they say, weakening, he is already able to pay more attention to the South Caucasus.

Second, the South Caucasus, as a lost region connected to the Middle East, is of great vital importance for Russia, as well as for Iran and Turkey. In other words, little by little, the focus of opposition between the EU powers is moving from Ukraine and so on to the Middle East. In other words, it can be said that he was there for a long time, but he was in a relatively frozen state, and now here, when today’s authorities interfere in those processes in the South Caucasus, they become the same mediator as Ukraine in its anti-Russian process, and today they want to make Armenia a mediator and a platform for the fight against Russia.

Already this is starting to strengthen certain challenges, and it may deepen and be delayed, as they had to delay quite a bit in the case of Ukraine. When the whole West was accelerating the war, they were doing everything to make the Russians attack Ukraine, they were arming and building these defense zones, and if Russia didn’t start this special operation, Ukraine would start it.

It was in 2014 that the coup happened, the first thing they did was announced to the people of the 3rd and 4th varieties of Donbass, they made anti-Russian statements and started bombing Donetsk and Luhansk.

– You mentioned that the situation may flare up here too, but the Armenian authorities, in fact, are following the path of negotiations, maintaining a compromise position on all issues, and why should the situation flare up?

– The authorities of Armenia do not decide. Negotiations, etc., are all imitations, smokescreens. The decision of what kind of relations will be formed, whether there will be an outbreak or not, how and in what way, is decided by other states, major powers, let’s say the United States, the European Union, let’s say Turkey, it depends on them how it will go, whether these negotiations will proceed or not.

They are spreading that now our authorities will negotiate, they will talk with the Russians, they will settle, we will still get the gas at the same price, the market will be open for us, etc., but as soon as we solve these issues economically, we will find an alternative, we will immediately cut off gas. In other words, he makes a fool of the state with which he is in a relationship. It’s not possible, he can make you look like an idiot for a while, as long as you sit quietly, and then the issues will be solved at once. So, those negotiations are not important here.

Now see what they are distracting our society with. In other words, it is a typical European liberal-globalist method to manipulate public consciousness. Let’s say they are talking about “TRIPP”. As if work is being done, agreements are being made with America, they are coming and going, meetings are taking place, or they are talking about alternative gas through Azerbaijan, the Turkish market, the European market, etc. All this is not serious, because, I repeat, the names they give – of those states or state figures – that is one side. The second side, the Armenian, essentially has no subjectivity.

In other words, whatever they dictate and demand, he does, one way or another. They say: sign “TRIPP” – they sign, they say: let this road pass like this – they agree, etc. Here, in the broadest sense, there are no interstate relations as such. In other words, how are the states… If you equate your state interest with your national interest, you put them on the same plane as their demands, that is, as such, there is no state-national interest.

– You mention that the Armenian authorities, in fact, do not decide anything, they have no influence. According to you, what decision does the Russian Federation have regarding Armenia, regarding the South Caucasus, how will the developments proceed, what to expect?

– It seems to me that the red lines have not yet been crossed, and the Russian side hopes that it will still be able to settle the issue through diplomatic means, in a certain sense, through political pressure. I do not rule out that, for example, the development of the situation in the South Caucasus is being discussed specifically with Iran.

And since Armenia, as a matter of fact, does not conduct any independent foreign policy, it does not pose a problem, so for Armenia those solutions, that is, solutions in the interest of Russia and in the interest of Iran, that is, based on their interests, can be both unexpected and incomprehensible for us, and they just decide, they do, because it is of vital importance for both Iran and Russia.

Մանրամասները՝ 168TV-in: in the video.

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