168: Ursula woos the Caucasus – Head of the European Commission in Baku and Yerev

On July 1-2, the head of the European Commission, embroiled in corruption scandals, Ursula von der Leyen, was on a working visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is completely logical within the framework of the Brussels structures’ approaches to the formation of transport and communication corridors bypassing the Russian territory.

With the EU’s relations with Georgia seriously deteriorating in 2024-2025, Brussels has stopped funding infrastructure projects in the Caucasian country, turning its attention to its southern neighbors., which, after the events of 2020-2023 around Nagorno-Karabakh, are being considered as a potential unified logistics hub.

Apart from general pathos statements, being At the end of negotiations with Ilham Aliyev in Baku, he promised to allocate up to 200 million euros in grants for the development of transport, energy and digital connections in the South Caucasus. “Cglobal network» within the framework of the investment program, thein which «projects may include, for example, the creation of a railway connection through Nakhichevan and the development of the port of Baku»:

It is assumed that these investments will become a prelude to attracting another 2 billion euros, but the feasibility of these plans is unclear. The European guest proposed holding a regional investment conference in Baku with the participation of the EU, as well as the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. It is known that Baku, Tbilisi and Yerevan are actively establishing political-diplomatic and trade-economic ties with their neighbors on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea, and in Brussels they are clearly trying to “keep their hand on the pulse”.

In December 2025, the modernization works of the local railway network began in Nakhichevan.

At the same time, it is planned to increase the capacity of Baku sea port to 25 million tons. The mentioned transport hubs are being actively promoted by the Azerbaijani authorities as key elements of the so-called Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as «middle aisle»։ In addition to establishing a regular ferry service between Aktau-Kurik and Baku ports, it will provide an additional connection «Trump way» implementation of the project, which is called in Baku «Zangezur Corridor»:

At the beginning of June, RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan signed a framework agreement with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the tripartite (“Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”) project.

In the Syunik Marz of Armenia, the surveying works have started, through which the communication lines (railway and ahighway, possibly fiber optic cable, etc.). Brussels initially supported the project, which was in the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey, and probably the head of the European Commission was discussing d:the possible involvement of Brussels not only in Baku, but also in Yerevan.

By the way, as a result of the negotiations with Nikol Pashinyan, quite modest numbers of monetary aid were announced. Armenia will receive 18 million euros: in: in addition to the previously promised 52 million euros for the diversification of foreign trade and 20 million euros «improving the lives of border communities» for which you have to share with your neighbors.

He has generously promised that the visa regime will be canceled until 2029 (!), but already this fall an evaluation mission is expected to assess the readiness for this fateful step. Moreover, no legal obligation Regarding the hypothetical accession of Armenia to the EU by Brussels (even as a candidate) in:as it was not, so it is not.

Thus, the resource-energy context of von der Leyen’s visit to the Caucasus, which is closely related to transportation projects, clearly overshadows the ideological mantras of “democracy” and “rule of law.” During his previous visit to Baku in July 2022, amid sanctions pressure on Moscow and a declared course to abandon Russian hydrocarbons, the head of the European Commission announced to at least double the capacity of the 3,500 km long so-called “Southern Gas Corridor” pipeline system stretching from the shores of the Caspian Sea to Europe by 2027 to 20 billion cubic meters per year. about the intention to increase to a meter. It must be admitted that certain results have been achieved. According to Aliyev, after 2022, EU gas exports have increased by about 65%.

Up to half of the gas exports of the Caspian Republic go to the countries of Southern and Central Europe, the list of which was recently supplemented by Slovakia, and most recently, in mid-June, Berlin and Baku signed an agreement on swap supplies of Azerbaijani gas to Germany. “The gas that three German companies have contracted from SOCAR, about 2 billion cubic meters per year, is very important for the stabilization of the European energy market,” the local media quoted German ambassador to Azerbaijan Ralf Horlemann as saying.

In addition to “traditional energy”, alternative energy is also being developed in Azerbaijan, attracting partners from various places. According to Aliyev, over the next 5-6 years, agreements with foreign and local companies will allow investment of around 8 gigawatts of solar and wind capacities, which will contribute to the strengthening of energy partnership. In 2024, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) joined the “Oil Gas Methane Partnership” program aimed at reducing methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. Commenting on the nuances of the dialogue with Brussels, experts from Baku persistently emphasize that they expect concrete commitments and investments from their partners, not promises and even more so, admonitions.

At the beginning of May, addressing the participants of the “European Political Community” summit in Yerevan (including the same Frau Ursula), Ilham Aliyev drew attention to the destructive role of the European Parliament and PACE, in Baku’s opinion, which regularly adopt politically motivated resolutions. It is assumed that the emphasis is on pragmatism and mutual benefit in the dialogue with the European Commission and the governments of individual states.

The Europeans’ interest in the Caucasian transport corridors is due to the need to supply energy resources, rare earths and other metals, uranium and other goods, which are important for the development of the military-industrial complex of European countries (first of all, Germany and France). Taking into account the official Brussels, Berlin and Paris course of total confrontation with Moscow, the clash of interests is visible to the naked eye. And there is a persistent feeling that the South Caucasus will not be left out of this conflict.

Andrey Areshev

infoshos.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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