168: I heard and was horrified. Is Armenia a testing ground… God forbid they apply it to Ukraine?

Satik Seyranyan’s “Lessons” program the guest Former Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic of Armenia, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Armenia to various countries Sergey Manasaryan is.

Sergey Manasaryan 1993-1994․ RA: of the Prime Minister staff the boss was, 1994-1996the․: RA of the government secretary–the minister, 1996-1999: RA Deputy Foreign Minister, 1999-2004: RA Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Egypt, 1999-2004․ togetherness in order RA:  the ambassador was in Algeria,  2000-2005the․in Morocco RA: ambassador, 2001-2004the․in Ethiopia RA: ambassador, 2001-2004the․in Libya RA: des:Pan, 2003-2005․in Sudan RA: ambassador, 2003-2012the․in Oman RA: ambassador, 2005-2010the.՝ in Bulgaria RA: emergency and: authorized ambassador, 2010-2016the․: RA external affairs of the minister Deputy, 2016-2024the.՝ in China  RA: emergency and: authorized ambassador (նստավայրը՝ Beijing), 2016-2024: RA Ambassador to Mongolia, 2018-2024: RA Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Thailand (residence: Beijing). During his career, he received a number of awards and decorations, including the 1st class medal “For Services to the Fatherland”, the highest Bulgarian order “Stara Planina”.

The main theses of the interview are below.

Why have China and Russia not congratulated Nikol Pashinyan on the occasion of the elections?

• Armenia’s membership in the anti-Chinese organization was a surprise for many, including the employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But we managed to convince China that we would not join any anti-Chinese project, and they accepted with difficulty. I don’t think this could be an obstacle to congratulate Pashinyan.

And not congratulating Russia was a response to the collective support of the West. By the way, the Russian president was the only one who openly did not support anyone during the pre-election period. As for the Russian sanctions, both sides officially say the problem is technical, related to phytosanitary issues. Of course it isn’t. Let’s wait and see what happens.

To remind, in 2019 Armenia joined the International Anti-Chinese Alliance for Religious Freedom.

• Until today, Armenia receives Russian grain, it is true, in different ways, including from Azerbaijan, but the grain is Russian. As for replacing Russian grain with Ukrainian grain… as they say, let them say, isn’t it money? Will they be able to provide supplies for a long time? In the same way, the authorities say that we will bring gas from another place. If they mean Azerbaijani gas, then Azerbaijan does not have that much gas, Europe also uses Russian gas through Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijani packaging, in the conditions of this confrontation and sanctions against Russia.

• Changing economic markets is a very complex and perhaps painful task. There are logistical and financial problems. It can be done, but not before 5-7-10 years. And those 5-7-10 years should still be able to live. I feel sorry for our villagers, but it’s geopolitics.

• When Bulgaria entered the European Union, within 1-2 years, Bulgarian agriculture was simply destroyed. I remember, on the Sofia-Varna road, there were huge fields of sunflowers, on which the crops were rotting, they were not harvested, because there was no market for consumption. The same happened with Poland. Ursula von der Leyen’s statement that Europe’s 450 million market is open for Armenia is a lie. Armenia should forget about it, because Europe will not change its sanitary-technical conditions for Armenia:

• There was one more thing that Ms. Ursula announced, and I was horrified when she said that we will apply the experience of Moldova and Ukraine. God forbid… There are rumors that von der Leyen came to convince Armenia to give up Russian energy carriers, but what alternative they offer us, what serious consequences will there be, there is no talk about it.:

• American modular nuclear power plants are nowhere to be found, they have not been tested, not even in America. And I don’t want little Armenia to become a testing ground for them. The Chinese have modular nuclear power plants, but they work with completely different technology, unlike the American one. If we close the Metsamor nuclear power plant and rely on American technologies, it means that we will not have a nuclear power plant in the next 10-15 years. 

• I wouldn’t say that Putin’s words were addressed to the Armenian people, rather they were addressed to the international community, so that the latter would understand and fix Russia’s position, the public would know about it, so that there would be no speculations in the future.

• I am neither pro-Russian nor pro-European. I am Armenian. Any statesman must protect the interest of his state. It used to be said about Yevgeny Primakov that he is strongly anti-Armenian. That was a mistake. Primakov promoted the interests of his state, Russia.

• A multipolar world is emerging. Armenia’s times of pursuing a complementary, multi-vector policy are over. It is necessary to have a clear position, otherwise any small state can become a victim of regional problems. And we are very close to it now. We are standing between several poles and do not know where to go:

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s hasty visit to Armenia was completely incomprehensible. 2 agreements and a memorandum were signed. The memorandum was about the rare minerals of Armenia, which did not imply any obligations, and the agreements were unimportant. So it was unclear. As for TRIPP, my opinion is the same: if the interests of regional states are not taken into account, no TRIPP will work. So, there cannot be any development in that regard in the near future.

• We live in a time when international law does not apply. Now there are 3 rights: the rights of the strong, the rights of the weak and international law. The right of the weak is equivalent to international law.

• Who will oversee TRIPP, no one knows. Will it operate under EAEU rules?

• What does it mean: we will take the railway from the Russians? Let them try. It’s not that easy. It is not about a private company, it is about the state. Ukraine has a very bitter experience with China in that respect:

• I can only hope that the government’s statements that there is no plan for Armenia to withdraw from the EAEU are true. Leaving the EAEU is not in our interests.

• When we decided to export Armenian honey to China, it took two years before we could achieve it. But honey from all of Armenia could only meet the demand of a few districts of an average Chinese city.

• In our case, the regional pole is Turkey, and whether we like it or not, we have to take this into account if we want to go to Europe.:

• The most sensitive issue for China is the question of the Turanian Corridor, which reaches as far as Xinjiang. The Chinese, understanding its goals very well, will not be in a hurry to express a position, but they will prevent the creation of that Corridor in every possible way. 

The concept of Great Turan Corridor, “Turanian Corridor” (or Zangezur Corridor) refers to the supposed transport route connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan, which is discussed in geopolitical circles as part of the larger “Middle Corridor” (Trans-Caspian) connecting Eurasia and China. This project aims to bypass Russia and Iran. Beijing is wary that it could expand pan-Turkish influence near the borders of its separatist Xinjiang province.

• What does it mean to be a non-aligned state, and how can Armenia compare with Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan has long been considered by the world as a proxy state of Turkey, even though it is not in any alliance. Historically, for a long time, Switzerland presented itself as a neutral state, but now it can be said that Switzerland is a non-aligned or neutral state. Switzerland joined the anti-Russian sanctions and thereby lost its neutrality. 

• If the 102nd Russian military base leaves here, “the holy place will not remain empty,” right? Which state will fill that empty place? there is Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey.

• If Iran loses the Iran-US war, TRIPP’s relevance will disappear, and if it wins, Iran will not allow any Corridor to exist unless it has a presence there.

• The Russian side is trying to secure its interests, the West is trying to draw Armenia to its side, having some interests…
  Recently, Orientalist and Iranologist Karine Gevorgyan expressed a very correct idea, with which I definitely agree. he said: dear Armenians, dear compatriots, understand that for Russia, the issue of Armenia is not only the issue of Armenia, but first of all, it is the issue of Russia’s security. Definitely agree with him. This is it, and it is very simple. Yes, similarly, it is a red line for Iran, everyone has their own interests. And where is the interest of Armenia?

• The concepts of the Jewish people and the State of Israel are completely different things. Israel has become quite a cynical and aggressive state. I repeat, I am not talking about the Jewish people. Before this attempt, there were 10 attempts to recognize the Armenian Genocide in the Knesset. If it is recognized now, one can try to take advantage of it, but the Armenian Foreign Ministry has already announced that it has abandoned the agenda of international recognition of the Genocide…therefore, there is no need to wait. If the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country announces that it has abandoned the agenda of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, then there is no need to expect that they will respond. I say this as a diplomat. But as a citizen, I will say that the state of Israel should not mention the word “genocide” frequently, because first of all it committed genocide in Gaza, and besides, the Netanyahu government has no right to come close to that issue, because the hands of the Israeli government and Netanyahu himself are soaked up to the elbows in the blood of Armenians. The 44-day war is a witness:

To remind: On June 28, the Israeli government unanimously approved the project presented by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide. Nikol Pashinyan stated that he does not see the need to react to Israel’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide, because he believes that “not entering into the issue of the weaponization of the Armenian Genocide is in the interests of the Republic of Armenia.” Turkey and Azerbaijan made statements in this regard.

• Azerbaijan made an obvious pro-Turkish statement after the Israeli government’s decision, although it would have been more beneficial for it to remain silent, but perhaps the pressure from Turkey was strong.

• If the rapprochement towards Europe continues, we are in for some very difficult days. Russia may impose financial sanctions, ban money transfers, and this will be disastrous for our citizens. In addition, there is a danger of Turkish expansion in that case, as happened in Ajaria. Staying in the EAEU will be economically beneficial, but it will automatically mean freezing with Europe, which is also not good. We have now put ourselves in a position where being with one means being against the other. 

Turkey’s expansion towards Adjara took place through “soft power”, economic investments and cultural-religious programs, which led to a gradual increase in Turkish influence.

Turkish capital accounts for about 80-90% of Adjara’s foreign investments. In the center of Batumi and on the coast of the Black Sea, there are hotels, casinos and shopping centers built with Turkish investments. Cafe-restaurants, hotels and all other businesses belong to Turkish businessmen. The Department of Religious Affairs of Turkey (Diyanet) actively supports the Muslim community of Adjara. Mosques are built or renovated with Turkish funding, educational programs are implemented, which causes certain concerns in Georgia. Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other figures do not even hide their territorial ambitions from Georgia.  The issue of obtaining Georgian passports by thousands of Turkish residents of Adjara was discussed.

• In the history of Armenia, starting from the Middle Ages, even if we talk about our last Armenian kingdom, the kingdom of Cilicia, peace has never come from the West. There is no such example that the West helped us in any matter, even in the last days of the Kingdom of Cilicia, Europe did not come to help, they ran away, having a friendly king, they did not help. Or let’s remember the Genocide. How did Europe or America help us in these matters? US Ambassador to the Ottoman Empire Henry We can remember Morgenthau, or that the people of Mount Musa were taken out by a French ship, but these are small episodes, elements… At the same time, German and British officers were serving in the Ottoman and Turkish armies. Was it… Yes! The Russians shed blood in our region, yes, they didn’t shed it for our beautiful eyes, it’s obvious, they had their own interests, but we don’t have any other example, who fought for us? No one. That is the reality, that is our history, which should not be forgotten. Now we have come, do we want to get peace from Europe? Excuse me, but where has Europe brought peace in general? Nowhere. There are still problems around the world where there were British mandates.

Details in the video.

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