Change of envoy without change of process. What is expected in Armenia?

Ruben Rubinyan, the candidate of the ruling “Civil Pact” party for the position of president of the to-be-formed National Assembly, will not continue to be Armenia’s special representative in the negotiations with Turkey, if elected. Ruben Rubinyan stated this in a conversation with journalists today.

It should be reminded that Ruben Rubinyan, the Armenian envoy to the Armenian-Turkish negotiations, was chosen by the “Civil Agreement” as a candidate for the president of the National Assembly, which will be formed as a result of the June 7 elections.

“Since I was elected as a candidate for the President of the National Assembly, if elected, I will obviously not continue to be a special representative of Armenia in the negotiations with Turkey,” Rubinyan announced today. He also mentioned that as far as he knows, it is not yet known who will replace him as the envoy of the Armenian side. “But the prime minister and the government will discuss,” said the NA vice-president.

By the way, it is noteworthy that the special representative of Turkey, Serdar Kilic, recently congratulated Ruben Rubinyan in the process of normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations. Kilch wrote on X’s microblog page:

“I congratulate Ruben Rubinyan, my partner in the process of normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations, on the occasion of his election to the position of speaker of the Armenian parliament. Over the past four years, we have created a productive work culture and sincere friendship. I wish him continued success in his new position.” Turning to this congratulation, Rubinyan said why Kilic should not have congratulated him, he received congratulations from Russia and other places in the same way.

The departure of Ruben Rubinyan from the position of the special representative of Armenia in the Armenian-Turkish settlement process essentially provides an opportunity to reassess the real effectiveness of the negotiation platform formed in recent years. Although many meetings took place during this period, joint statements were published and external dynamics of dialogue were maintained, the process never turned into negotiations leading to a result.

And most importantly, the Armenian-Turkish border continues to remain closed, although the Turkish side has no political reason to keep it closed due to the policy of the current RA authorities. And recently, the Turkish side explains the fact that the border is closed simply by technical preparatory processes. However, analysts dealing with Turkey’s regional policy clearly know that Turkey’s slowness is due to coordination with Azerbaijan.

168.amin a conversation with Russian Turkologist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky said that that platform solved the problem to the extent that it showed that Armenia and Turkey are negotiating, but the problem is not even the personalities of the negotiators, but the process, its structure and a number of key regional realities. According to him, the key decisions of Armenian-Turkish relations are made not at the level of special representatives, but by the highest political leadership of Turkey, which in turn consistently connects this issue with the development of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.

“Ankara has never hidden that it considers the full regulation of relations with Yerevan within the framework of coordination with Baku, actually giving up the opportunity to form an independent agenda. Under these conditions, the format of special representatives gradually turned into a political communication rather than a real negotiation tool. It ensured the continuity of contacts, but did not create such mechanisms through which it would be possible to overcome the main political contradictions. In fact, a process was formed where the visibility of the negotiations was maintained, but the preconditions ensuring their results were missing,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

According to him, Ankara continues to condition the Armenian-Turkish agenda exclusively on the course of the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, which means that the appointment of a new special representative of Armenia will not change the essence of the process itself. In other words, in his opinion, only the negotiator will change, while the negotiation logic will remain the same, maintaining the imitation of dialogue without a real possibility of a political breakthrough.

He mentioned that Turkey’s regional policy in recent years has been more emphatically built on the principle of “one region, one strategy”, where the South Caucasus is considered not a separate direction, but a component of the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani geopolitical space.

Therefore, according to Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, Ankara never separated the regulation of relations with Armenia from the interests of Azerbaijan and continued to consider it as a logical continuation of the partnership with Baku.

In his assessment, Turkey’s policy towards Armenia remains conditional, every important step is evaluated in the context of coordination with Azerbaijan, and only after that, from the point of view of the Armenian-Turkish bilateral agenda.

This reality means, according to the analyst, that Turkey’s policy towards Armenia continues to remain not an independent foreign policy direction, but a tool for broader regional calculations.

“Ankara strives to maintain leverage in the South Caucasus, while strengthening its position as a regional power. Therefore, until Turkey reviews the fundamental approaches of its policy towards Armenia and does not separate the Armenian-Turkish relations from the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process, it is difficult to expect that even the negotiation formats will be able to provide a different result,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

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