168: “This is a non-standard situation for Armenia, it requires a clear calculation

Recently, the Israeli government unanimously approved the resolution presented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gideon Saar, by which the country officially recognizes the Armenian Genocide carried out in the Ottoman Empire. The move, now sent to the Knesset (Parliament) for final ratification, is the culmination of decades of careful calculations.

Although the Israeli side declares the fulfillment of a “moral and historical duty”, it is clear that the sudden “awakening” of historical justice is dictated by the deep geopolitical realignment in the Middle East and the sharp conflict with Ankara.

168.am–in a conversation with Russian Turkologist Viktor Nadei–Raevsky said that the Israeli elites have long been guided by two principles: not to spoil relations with Turkey when it might bother them, and secondly, to preserve the special role of the Holocaust in international politics, which did not allow comparing the Jewish catastrophe with other historical events. Although he also noted that Israel has not denied the Genocide, rather it has tried to recognize it at various stages.

According to him, the situation has changed, the revival of the topic is caused solely by the complete collapse of relations with Turkey, against the background of ongoing wars in the region, Israel’s policy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become one of the fiercest critics of Israel, openly accusing the Jewish state of “genocide”.

“This development is sensitive for Turkey. Ankara has been fighting for decades to prevent international recognition of the Armenian Genocide. The possible recognition of Israel at a stage when the topic is not actively discussed, the agenda of international recognition of the Genocide is not being actively promoted, can create a new international precedent, especially in the region where Turkey is trying to strengthen. Naturally, Israel views this as a tool of geopolitical pressure.

There is no need to idealize Israel’s steps. In international politics, the themes of historical justice are often activated as a result of strategic calculations. If there were no serious disagreements in Turkey-Israel relations, it is unlikely that the issue of recognizing the Armenian Genocide would be on the agenda today. This once again shows that morality and values ​​in foreign policy often work when they coincide with state interests,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

He believes that the main thing for Armenia in this situation is the correct positioning. In his opinion, Yerevan should support every initiative for the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, but at the same time, it should not become a party to the Israel-Turkey conflict or get excited when that topic is used as a tool of pressure. “Strategic calculation is also important for Armenia. If Israel finally recognizes the Armenian Genocide, it will be a victory of historical justice, but also a new regional political impetus. However, the real success for Armenia would be if Yerevan could turn this development into long-term diplomatic capital. However, if this agenda is not currently active in the RA foreign policy, then such recognition will apply only to Israel-Turkey relations, so in this situation the topic becomes a tool of influence,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

According to him, the Turkish-Israeli relations have already crossed the borders of a normal diplomatic crisis, if in the previous decade the parties were able to cooperate alongside tough political statements, then today a completely different picture is emerging.

According to the analyst, Turkey and Israel have begun to see each other as rivals fighting for regional influence, their contradictions relate not only to the Palestinian issue, but also to the post-war structure of Syria, energy projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, communication corridors in the South Caucasus and the formation of a new balance of power in the entire Middle East.

Therefore, according to the analyst, the aggravation of relations is caused by a deep conflict of geopolitical interests.

“It is in this context that the return of the Armenian Genocide topic to Israel’s political agenda should be considered. As states review their strategic priorities, they are also rethinking issues that have been shelved for years out of political expediency. This is a non-standard situation for Armenia, it requires a clear calculation and an appropriate response,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

—