Most likely, the Kremlin will put pressure on Pashinyan and demand yes

Artak Zakaryan writes on his Facebook page:

“The parliamentary elections were fatal and marked the next round of anti-national policy recharging (2018, 2021, 2026).

The external and internal struggle for influence on Armenia and public opinion will continue in a more targeted manner. This means that the growing tension around Armenia, the conflict-generating policy of the CP, public grievances and internal political struggle may have a more complex and complicated course.

Through diplomatic channels, the rulers of RA will ask to receive Pashinyan in Moscow. He will try to come to an agreement at any cost, because he realizes that he cannot go far with his “anti-Russianness”. The Kremlin will naturally demand to stop the European projects, and Pashinyan will try to present it as a “multi-vector policy” and “this is not against you” theses. The probability of reaching an agreement is very low, but the parties will observe diplomatic protocols.

CP does not have the necessary number of deputies to change the Constitution, to remove from the basic law the references to Artsakh and the recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Declaration of Independence, the exclusive mission of the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church, reformulate the description of the family, submit to the courts, etc. First of all, Azerbaijan and Turkey demand it, with the full support of the West, of course.

Nikoli needs a piece of paper called a “peace treaty” with Baku, which is one of the legal and political conditions for integration to the West.

For now, the draft TRIPP line is also in the air. The largest set of conflicting policies and interests of the CP remains at the heart of this project.

The other circumstance. Currently, Armenia simply has no alternative to Russian gas. Probably, EN will propose options for the construction of gas pipelines, but it is a very slow process. There is already talk about the old “Nabucco” project. The main question is, can Armenia’s energy diversification be provided only by Iran? Tehran receives electricity and supplies gas in return, but this still does not completely solve the problem. It is of fundamental importance for the economy of Armenia and the social needs of our citizens.

Blocking of Armenian products (perhaps also Armenian capital, transfers, labor market) and unilateral elimination of privileges in Russia can become a headache and an unresolved issue.
In Moscow, they take Armenia very seriously and do not want to lose it. Most likely, the Kremlin will put pressure on Pashinyan and demand a referendum to find out whether the Armenian people want to be with the European Union or the EAEU. This dilemma is an unprofitable agenda for Nicole, and she will try to avoid it by all means.

Despite the promotion by the European Union and the United States, Armenia’s real movement towards the West will slow down significantly. Moscow has not very strong, but nevertheless, levers of inhibiting influence, and the probability of reaching mutual agreements with Pashinyan is low.
This means that the results of the 2026 election have brought Armenia into a more complex and exhausting period of multilateral dependence, internal political governance crises, bilateral and multilateral diplomatic mistrust, financial and economic, internal repression and new security threats.

We are entering a phase where once again the effectiveness of the parliamentary governance system, its strengths and weaknesses should be tested in the face of growing external and internal challenges.”

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