There is no internal politics in Armenia. All the processes going on inside Armenia in at least the last 200 years are exclusively the continuation of foreign policy.
The reason for that is geography. Due to its geographical location, Armenia has been and always remains at the center of global geopolitical processes. In school textbooks, this was formulated with the empty sentence “Armenia was a bone of contention between x and y”, where x and y changed, but the phenomenon itself did not change, forming a kind of complex.
Meanwhile, this has a clear political science explanation. Regardless of what is happening inside Armenia, there is a wider, global reality that influences, if you will, predetermines the logic of events inside Armenia. For the Armenian state and the Armenian people, these processes dictate both the state process and public life. Good or bad, but we don’t have the luxury to build a state and society directly, from scratch and in “sterile conditions”. The external environment does not allow strong differences to exist inside Armenia: right and left, conservatives or liberals, greens and communists. It is an unacceptable luxury. In this area, the state must be ready to be the focus of external processes. Therefore, it should be a highly militarized, rapidly mobilized and developed Sparta. The reason for this is just one variable that decides everything.
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In the last 150 years, the main external challenge of Armenia has not changed. In the east and west of Armenia, there are two Turkic states, Turkey and Azerbaijan, which aim to remove the Armenian factor between them in order to unite and expand their sphere of influence. As they say, removing the “cursed Armenian wedge” is the main way to ensure the vitality of their states. Again, not because they are Armenian-haters by birth, but because from a political point of view, the Armenian political project interferes with the Turkish political project due to its position. This is not a whim, a preference or an idea of an individual politician. This is one of the pillars of Turkish political thought, from Enver to Erdogan.
This challenge exists, and it should be at the basis of the calculation of any action of any Armenian force, from a politician to a party, from an NGO to a state institution. Again. this is not good or bad, this is reality. One can have disagreements on pensions, agricultural credit or any other similar issue, but the first benchmark of any political program is the Turkish threat. Whatever is done, whatever is drawn, should be based on the following question. How does this help/hinder to neutralize the Turkish objective threat?
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This is a reality that is avoided at all costs not only by a part of the citizens, but also by the forces of the national field. Meanwhile, this approach does not allow not only to see the real challenge in time and predict the developments, but also to face them effectively.
Now let’s come to the elections. the national forces are obliged to take into account the Turkish threat and in no case underestimate it. In their programs (not in pre-election propaganda), but in real political programs, one should take into account the fact that Turkey and Azerbaijan currently have clear tools to spread influence over Armenia. Therefore, if there is an obvious demand from their side to change the Constitution and it is not possible to achieve this by convincing the Armenian people (they tried and are trying, but they did not succeed), then there is no possibility to rely on fair and transparent elections. It’s just not there.
Therefore also. one cannot think that we live in Liechtenstein and we will have fair elections. Turkey and Azerbaijan will not allow it, as they have influence in Armenia. Therefore, it is impossible to move forward without alternative plans (the so-called “plan B”). It is simply not possible.
It is not too late to think about it and reorganize the national struggle. The Turkish threat is real and orientational, the actions of the national forces, if you will, the way of life should derive from this and in no case the other way around, remembering that there is no internal political life, there is a continuation of the external.
Judging by the pace of events, everything will be much faster at this stage of the struggle.
Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan
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