It is not necessary that the “third force” – “Strong Armenia” – will retain its influence in the future

“Many questions were expected to be answered from the main five-year election campaign in Armenia. Will Nikol Pashinyan retain power or will he give in under the pressure of several opposition wings, who are united in their desire to break the monopoly of the “Civil Contract”? Will Yerevan follow the path of European integration or will it follow the usual Eurasian path? Will the “historic elections” bring peace with Azerbaijan and the settlement of relations with Turkey closer?

However, after the elections, we only got a new dose of questions. As it turned out, approaching the political horizon line only made it even more uncertain and unattainable,” writes Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov in the article titled “Beyond the Horizon” in the Kommersant Russian periodical.

According to him, at first glance, the success of the ruling party and Nikol Pashinyan himself does not raise doubts.

“Even if we put aside for a moment the use of administrative resources unprecedented for post-Soviet Armenia and pressures on the opposition, we must admit that regardless of the personal attitude towards the image of the Armenian Prime Minister, he has a certain amount of support and popularity, especially in villages and small towns.

“Civil Agreement”, like five years ago, will be able to form a government on its own, without forming a coalition with anyone. However, compared to 2021, the ruling party will get ten seats less, which means that the cherished constitutional majority will not be secured.

Therefore, problems will arise when making changes to the Mother Law, although Armenia is potentially faced with the prospect of holding two referendums (on amending the Constitution and choosing the integration vector). Complications for the government? Not only. The government gets a field to maneuver both within the country and in the dialogue and negotiations with Moscow, Ankara and Baku,” Markedonov makes such a comment.

He also believes that everything is not clear even in the opposition field. According to the Russian analyst, during all eight years of being in power, Pashinyan built his own legitimacy by opposing those whom he called “formers”.

But, according to the analyst, Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the “Strong Armenia” bloc, actually fulfilled the public demand of the “third force” by implementing the “restart” of the Armenian opposition and becoming its main pillar, instead of the Kocharian “Armenia” bloc.

“It is not necessary that the “third force” will retain its influence in Armenian politics in the future, but a serious bid for that role has already been submitted,” Markedonov notes. In his opinion, the parliamentary elections not only did not eliminate, but on the contrary, they further emphasized the fundamental problems of the Armenian national-state concept, the idea of ​​”Unification” no longer works, and the concept of “Real Armenia”, which is based on the rejection of heroism and sacrifice and consumerism, does not unite the country, but polarizes it more. “The Armenian society and the political class remain divided. their various parts do not seek compromises. Their conception of the country’s future and its place in the world is extremely different. The elections are over, but the struggle for “our own Armenia” continues, and everyone has their own Armenia,” Markedonov writes.

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