Russia’s old ally set to give Putin a bloody nose

Yet that often transactional relationship has steadily unravelled since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin never much cared for Mr Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 after Armenians, weary of Moscow-backed strongmen, swept the charismatic reformer into office in a popular uprising.

Initially careful not to alienate the Kremlin, on whose goodwill Armenia’s economy depended, Mr Pashinyan gradually moved closer to the West, appalled by Russia’s conduct in Ukraine.

Putin retaliated by striking at the heart of Armenian identity. In 2023, Russian peacekeepers stationed in the Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh stood aside as Azerbaijan launched an offensive to reclaim the territory.

According to analysts, the Kremlin expected traumatised refugees and enraged nationalists to overthrow Mr Pashinyan and replace him with a more pliant leader.

But Putin miscalculated. Armenians directed their anger not at Mr Pashinyan, but at Moscow. In punishing the Armenian leader for his lack of subservience, the Kremlin destroyed its own leverage.

Mr Pashinyan seized the moment to argue that Armenia’s future depended on ending its vassalage to Moscow.

Rather than treating Nagorno-Karabakh solely as a sacred symbol of Armenian identity, he recast it as a burden that trapped Armenia in dependency and prevented closer integration with Europe.

Urging his people to embrace the “real Armenia” within its internationally recognised borders, he argued that abandoning territorial dreams could unlock prosperity and security.

The potential rewards are considerable. Reopening Armenia’s sealed borders with Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey would end decades of isolation, expand trade, and allow the country to host a US-backed transit corridor linking Europe with the energy and mineral-rich states of Central Asia.

“Pashinyan is openly looking for a gradual decoupling from Russia,” said Laurence Broers of Chatham House, an international affairs think tank.

“He has tied his political fortunes to regional stabilisation with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and is looking to the EU as an alternative anchorage to provide Armenia with security and support in a volatile environment.”

Alarmed by the prospect of Armenia slipping from its orbit, Moscow has responded with threats and intimidation. Russia has banned a range of Armenian imports, hinted at ending discounted gas supplies and warned Armenia that it could suffer the same fate as Ukraine.

At the same time, Armenia has been inundated with Kremlin-linked disinformation, in what analysts describe as one of the most sustained foreign-influence campaigns seen in modern Europe.

Mr Pashinyan has been falsely accused of buying luxury homes abroad, child trafficking and plotting to flood Armenia with Turkish mosques and French nuclear waste.

So far, the campaign appears to have had a limited impact. Polling has varied wildly, but most Western analysts believe Mr Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party remains on course for victory.

“Pashinyan’s figures are trending in his favour,” said Stephen Nix, Europe and Eurasia director at the International Republican Institute (IRI), a Washington-based democracy organisation that has conducted polling in Armenia.

“We’ve assessed that whichever party convinces the electorate that they are the best guarantor for peace and economic prosperity is going to win, and Pashinyan has stayed on message in both areas.”

IRI’s latest poll puts support for Civil Contract at 32 per cent, with the strongest pro-Russian bloc, Strong Armenia, on only 6 per cent.

Yet the election has also exposed deep divides within Armenian society. Many Armenians – particularly among the diaspora and the 120,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh – remain unwilling to accept the loss of the territory as readily as their prime minister.

Mr Pashinyan has at times worsened these tensions himself. During a series of heated exchanges with Karabakh Armenians, he lost his composure, describing some critics as “pitiful”, “runaways”, and “scumbags”, prompting accusations of victim-blaming and hate speech.

The prime minister has also faced accusations of authoritarianism following the detention of senior clergymen and opposition figures, including Samvel Karapetyan, the billionaire leader of Strong Armenia, who remains under house arrest awaiting trial.

Government officials insist such figures are seeking to destabilise the country on Moscow’s behalf. Last year, Armenian authorities said they had foiled an alleged coup plot involving senior clergy and a pro-Russian Armenian militia fighting in Ukraine.

The atmosphere has grown increasingly febrile. A video circulated recently on Armenian social media showing five masked men in combat fatigues brandishing rifles and warning Mr Pashinyan: “We know where and when you are going. You must answer for your every step.”

Mr Pashinyan mocked the men for hiding behind masks. But many Armenians will have taken the threat seriously.

Their country has a long history of political violence. In 1999, gunmen stormed parliament and assassinated the prime minister, the speaker and six other senior politicians in an attack whose motives remain murky to this day.

Polls suggest Armenians are increasingly hopeful that the country may finally be emerging from decades of isolation and instability. But as they loosen Russia’s grip and turn towards the wider world, many also fear the dangers that may lie ahead.