At a crossroads: Armenia’s Sunday election to test East-West balance

A part of the Soviet Union for most of the 20th century, the 3-million-strong country has maintained close political and economic ties with Moscow since independence in 1991 but its government is now expanding cooperation with the EU and the US. 

The shift has been driven in part by the loss of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan in a seismic military defeat that occurred on the watch of Russian peacekeepers stationed in the sensitive territory. 

Nikol Pashinyan, the centrist prime minister who came to power on the back of protests in 2018, has tried to move Armenia closer to Europe while also keeping Russia on side, given Yerevan’s dependence on Russian trade and energy supplies. 

The difficulty of mastering such a balancing act has been on show in recent weeks. 

In the run-up to the parliamentary election, in which Pashinyan and his party face a fragmented, broadly pro-Russian opposition, the Kremlin has exerted pressure by banning the import of key Armenian goods and ominously warning of a future “Ukraine scenario.” 

The EU – whose leaders flocked to Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, for major summits last month – responded by announcing a €50 million support package, including the easing of some trade restrictions.  

It’s not all about geopolitics, however: Armenians are also being asked to decide in this election how they see their country after the traumatic conclusion of the decades-long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. 

The frontrunner: Nikol Pashinyan

Polling suggests that Pashinyan’s reformist Civil Contract party will come first in the June 7 election – but the question is by how much. 

His campaign has focused on moving forward from the painful Nagorno-Karabakh defeat, which led to the displacement of 100,000 Armenians from the territory, by accepting the country’s present borders. 

This could lead to the normalization of relations with neighbors such as Turkey, a regional powerhouse, which is seen as key to unlocking Armenia’s economic potential – but it depends on the so far unratified peace deal with Azerbaijan being finalized. 

To do so, Armenia must amend its constitution to drop claims to the disputed region – something that’s unlikely to happen if Civil Contract fails to keep its current constitutional majority in parliament. 

Then, there is Pashinyan’s Russia balancing act.

From playing drums alongside a crooning Emmanuel Macron to friendly handshakes with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Armenian PM has shown his pro-EU face to the world over the next few months, while also meeting Vladimir Putin. 

He has sought to reduce Armenia’s dependence on Moscow, but is not turning his back on the Kremlin. 

Pashinyan has vowed to keep his country in the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while continuing its de facto exile from the military-minded Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). 

He would try to keep walking the Russia-EU tightrope, if he returns to power. It is a “pragmatic” position that, in practice, eschews lofty goals such as EU candidacy, an expert told TVP World’s Eastern Express this week. 

“Armenia is much more pragmatic and is deepening relations with the West and the EU, [but] well short of membership,” Richard Grigosian from the Regional Studies Center said. “Armenia is also prudently pursuing a passive aggressive transactional strategy with Russia and not unnecessarily overprovoking Moscow.” 

The Armenian-Russian billionaire: Samvel Karapetyan 

Worth an estimated $4.1 billion, tycoon Samvel Karapetyan is Pashinyan’s strongest rival – even though he is under house arrest. 

The Armenian-Russian dual citizen was charged last year with calling for the government’s overthrow, as well as money laundering, as entered politics to speak out for the Armenian Apostolic Church in its clash with Pashinyan. 

His Strong Armenia party is running at the head of a coalition that has vowed to stop the country from becoming an “arena of geopolitical confrontation.” This would mean restoring friendly ties with Russia, including renewing full participation in the CSTO. 

Strong Armenia is vehemently opposed to Pashinyan’s push for a peace deal with Azerbaijan in its current form, and has stoked nationalist narratives by accusing the prime minister of wanting to let 300,000 Azerbaijanis settle in Armenia.  

“The opposition landscape is fragmented, but energetic,” TVP World’s political editor Stuart Dowell says. “Strong Armenia speaks to voters who want stronger business leadership, warmer ties with Russia and resistance to Pashinyan’s peace policy.”  

A poll in late May by the International Republican Institute (IRI) put Karapetyan’s party in second place at 6%, far behind Civic Contract on 32%. However, 23% of those polled said they were undecided, with 21% refusing to disclose their preference. 

The other pro-Russians 

Pashinyan has characterized his main opponents as a “three-headed war party,” throwing Strong Armenia into the same category as two others: former president Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance and eccentric tycoon Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia. 

Both see Russia as Armenia’s key ally and are opposed to European integration. Kocharyan’s party is currently the main opposition and has called for a different peace deal with Azerbaijan, involving China, Russia and the US, while floating the prospect of Armenia having a Belarus-style union with Moscow. 

Tsarukyan – best known globally for funding a record-breaking 77-meter statue of Jesus Christ – has longstanding business ties to Russia. On May 21, Andranik Tevanyan, the leader of another party in his electoral coalition, was arrested and charged by the Armenian authorities with spying for Moscow. 

What will happen? Around 2.5 million Armenian citizens are eligible to vote in Sunday’s poll, which is held under a proportional representation system with different electoral thresholds for parties and coalitions. 

A minimum of 101 members will be elected to the single-chamber parliament, with the actual number of seats dependent on the results. The last election, held in 2021, resulted in 107 MPs – with Pashinyan’s party ensuring a constitutional majority with 71 seats.  

Whether that happens this time remains to be seen. 

According to Stefania Kolarz and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz from the Polish Institute for International Affairs, the most likely scenario is a win for Pashinyan, but short of the two-thirds needed to change the constitution. 

“This offers the prospect of maintaining the current foreign policy course, though without the ratification of the peace treaty with Azerbaijan,” the experts write, adding that a bigger-scale win would be Western powers’ preferred outcome. 

While Russia may wish to see the back of the current PM, it is not putting its weight too heavily behind the other contenders, think tanker Richard Grigosian told TVP World, arguing that Russian interference has been limited. 

“I’m not worried, simply because is not a close election. The opposition, which is divided [… with] single digit support in most cases, does not really have the potential for securing Russian support to upset the election,” he said. 

“The incumbent government’s real advantage here – beyond incumbency – is actually the advantage of having no credible alternative or rival.”

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