Ankara’s silent carte blanche. Why does Erdogan support Pashinyan’s election?

After the Pashinyan-Putin telephone conversation, Pashinyan’s telephone conversation with the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan took place on June 2.

According to the message of the RA government, Pashinyan sent his best wishes to Erdogan on the occasion of the last Kurban Bayram. According to the report, Erdogan congratulated Pashinyan on his 51st birthday.

“The interlocutors also exchanged ideas on the issues of the bilateral agenda and expressed satisfaction with the occasion of the activation of contacts. In particular, the visit of Turkey’s Vice President Cevded Yilmaz to Armenia to participate in the European Political Community Summit, the decision to establish Turkey-Armenia direct trade procedures and the opening of the Akhalkalak-Kars railway for exports from Armenia and imports to Armenia were highlighted,” the message said.

The message spread by the Turkish side was almost indistinguishable from the message of the RA government, there were minor differences. The message of the Turkish presidency was more brief, it did not contain any mention of birthday congratulations or other emphasis. “During the conversation, the process of regulating Turkey-Armenia bilateral relations, as well as regional issues, was also touched upon. President Erdoğan announced that the settlement between Turkey and Armenia continues with steps aimed at starting direct trade.

Emphasizing that Turkey is making efforts to establish peace and stability in our region, President Erdoğan added that they will always support the steps to be taken in this direction,” said the message from the Turkish side.

It is noteworthy that this phone call follows Putin’s call to Pashinyan on the occasion of the latter’s birthday.

“The interlocutors also exchanged ideas on the current issues of the bilateral and multilateral agenda. The Prime Minister of Armenia thanked the President of the Russian Federation for his balanced positions, friendly tone, and support on a number of issues that give rise to mutual understanding,” said the message about the telephone conversation.

It should be noted that this year Pashinyan received birthday congratulations only from the heads and prime ministers of 4 CIS partners, as well as from the head of Turkey. In the light of the European integration vector of the RA foreign policy, it is noteworthy that Pashinyan did not receive congratulations from his Western partners.

168.amin a conversation with Russian Turkologist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky said that the personal congratulation of Nikol Pashinyan by the President of Turkey is not only a manifestation of ordinary diplomatic etiquette, but also political support from Ankara to the RA government.

According to him, this position of the Turkish side is conditioned by the general vision of regional processes that currently exists in the region. Naturally, according to the analyst, few people seem to share this vision in Armenia, so the change of power in Armenia can change this process and this foreign policy. “At present, important progress has been recorded for Turkey and Azerbaijan in a number of directions in relations with Armenia without much effort, while simultaneously maintaining the agenda of preconditions with Armenia. The continuity of the current government has provided an opportunity for Armenia-Turkey relations the current regulation and the atmosphere of predictability in it,” said the analyst, adding that this is also due to the fact that global agreements have been reached, they have geopolitical significance, such as the road connecting Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan through the RA territory and then to Turkey. As for the mention of the steps aimed at the start of direct trade, then, according to him, the subject of trade and export is currently extremely relevant for the Armenian side.

“Against the background of export problems to Russia, the RA authorities should try to show that Armenia has alternatives and can reach new agreements with Turkey, Azerbaijan or the West, that is, it is not dependent only on Russia from an economic and commercial point of view. It also has pre-election significance, because society needs to show that Armenia is able to create alternatives if there are problems in the Russian direction. People do not study in depth whether these alternatives really exist, but the conversations and statements about them create that impression, so this the observation that announcements about new trade agreements with the EU are made in this context,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

Speaking about the perspective of Akhalkalak-Kars railway operation, the Turkologist said that this is also presented in the pre-election stage as a foreign political achievement of the current government, which allows Armenian voters to present concrete results of regional de-blockade and economic development. “In this case, many people do not study how this supports the Armenian economy and what benefits it will bring, but the announcement about it may have a certain effect,” the analyst noted. The latter drew attention to the fact that along with all this, the Armenian-Turkish border is not yet open, the relations are not established, because Azerbaijan is waiting for constitutional changes in Armenia, after which maybe the Peace Agreement will be signed and steps from Turkey will follow.

He believes that the support addressed by Erdogan to Pashinyan should also be considered through the prism of Ankara-Moscow regional competition and positioning. In his opinion, it is no coincidence that the call of the Turkish leader followed the phone call of the Russian president, which indicates the competition between major regional players. “Nevertheless, it should be noted that the future course of Armenia-Turkey relations is not strongly determined by individuals. Ankara’s strategic calculations are based on deep, geopolitical realities and self-interest. This means that Turkey is ready for different scenarios, and at the core of it all is the further goal of strengthening its own influence. However, before further developments, many people are waiting for the results of the elections,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

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