Verelq: It is resource competition that throws power out of balance

The pre-election campaign launched in Armenia has entered an active phase, being distinguished by unprecedented concentration of resources and hardening of rhetoric. The main political actors, both the government and the opposition poles, have adopted very different tactics of mobilizing the electorate, trying to dictate their own agenda to the public.

What are the characteristics of the current election campaign, can it be considered fully competitive, and how do the parties use the administrative, financial and media tools at their disposal? On this and other key issues related to the electoral process VERELQtalked to a political technologist Vigen Hakobyan with.

 

In the photo is Vigen Hakobyan

VERELQ. Mr. Hakobyan. We are already in the middle of the campaign (meaning the active phase of the electoral process). What do you think sets this campaign apart from previous ones, and what key characteristics would you single out?

Vigen Hakobyan. I believe that this campaign differs from the previous ones in that the vocabulary of the government (in particular, the governing “Civil Pact” party) is much freer, and the hate speech is much more pronounced. This is not accidental and is a result of the tactics of the government, because they understand very well that a high turnout for them can be a mortal danger. The government is trying its best to keep the passive, apathetic and undecided mass, which usually does not go to the polls, to the same position. For that, it is necessary to make the elections as unserious as possible, to make them full of blasphemy, to be able to make the hate agenda as dominant as possible and involve the opposition parties in it as well. The government is trying to turn the electoral process into a process accompanied by ugly words and actions. The goal is that the electorate, which is not usually involved in politics, but has sensitive feelings, which could suddenly go to the elections this time, will get sick of it all and decide to just drink coffee on the street or in a cafe on the day of the election.

VERELQ. In other words, is the goal to mobilize his electorate and keep those who were already apathetic?

Vigen Hakobyan. Yes, the electorate of the government, including the “Civil Agreement” electorate, is already mobilized. That mass can be big or small, but it is always thick, very disciplined and controlled. People are monitored, registered, directed and taken to polling stations (a process often carried out by the use of government leverage). I am not saying that the entire electorate is forced to do this, but the mass that is under the influence of administrative resources (employees of the state apparatus, municipal governments and subordinate institutions) is usually very disciplined, and almost 80-85% of these people participate in the elections. It ensures a fairly high turnout for the government. And the opposition usually does not have such levers as an administrative resource. In other words, the government, with its words and actions, mobilizes its own electorate even more and demobilizes as much as possible those people who are hesitating whether to vote or not. They make the process so unpleasant that people voluntarily refuse to go to the polling station.

VERELQ. Okay, Mr. Hakobyan, in that sense the government has resources, but these elections are distinguished by the fact that the opposition also has few resources, at least financially. For example, what do you think the opposition is doing to wage a smart and attractive fight, or are there problems with creativity?

Vigen Hakobyan. Unlike the government, the opposition has several layers. Competing opposition forces that can overcome the passing threshold (the legal minimum percentage bar to enter the parliament or council) and fight for victory and large percentages have different tactics depending on their target groups.

For example, the main target of the “Armenia” alliance (led by the second president of the Republic of Armenia, Robert Kocharian) is the radical electorate, which demands that their pre-election speech and campaign be as radical as possible. Here, we see that the “Armenia” alliance comes up with quite radical slogans, sometimes trying to keep up with the speech of the Prime Minister (Nikol Pashinyan). It is done to satisfy the demands of own electorate. they want to see a leader who says he will punish, arrest and respond to insult with even harsher insult. They also shoot harsh clips, for example, about 300,000 Azerbaijanis (referring to the opposition’s claims that the policies of the authorities may lead to the mass return or resettlement of Azerbaijanis), the screening of which was blocked on some platforms. The radical electorate will not perceive light PR (modern, “hype” tricks of public relations), they demand a classic tough approach. The only thing that, in my opinion, the opposition was inferior to in the initial stage was that it mostly responded to the government’s agenda. However, from a certain stage, the same “Armenia” bloc started dictating its own agenda to the government and giving tough answers within the framework of that agenda.

As for “Strong Armenia” (meaning the force operating in the opposition field), they have a division of roles, based on the current realities, because their leader is under house arrest (within the restraining order applied by law enforcement officers). Narek Karapetyan, visiting regions or big cities, mainly presents positive, socio-economic programs, trying not to get into Pashinyan’s agenda and offering an economic alternative (for example, the promise of 300,000 jobs). And Samvel Karapetyan, not having the opportunity to leave the house, took on the political component. They have found creative formats, such as shadow government meetings or question-and-answer formats, through which he is active every day. In addition, he tries to dictate his own agenda with answers full of sarcasm, which have a lot of views on the Internet. In other words, they try to combine the socio-economic and security alternative presented on the street with the hard political component active in the online domain.

“Prosperous Armenia” (the party led by Gagik Tsarukyan) works in a rather classic style. They do not want to disperse their forces in different directions, but they know exactly where they can get their interest. They go where they have support, where they are expected or where they have done a certain job before. They work very targeted.

VERELQ. Okay, and last question. Following this process, can the election campaign in Armenia be considered competitive or not?

Vigen Hakobyan. I do not doubt that the struggle is competitive, but the problem is that the government overuses its administrative and legal resources without facing any legislative restrictions. It is enough to mention only the story related to Andranik Tevanyan (social-politician), when the Prime Minister on vacation (Nikol Pashinyan, who took a temporary leave to participate in the campaign as a candidate) gave an instruction to the NSS, and they took the number two of the alliance, who is also the head of the faction of the Yerevan Council of Elders. We see what is happening. the government does not engage in traditional election bribery, but uses state resources as an election bribe. For example, by making changes in the pension and insurance system just a few months before the elections, they try to win over certain age groups and target groups.

Meanwhile, the opposition warns that their supporters are constantly being detained (referring to the interrogations and arrests carried out by law enforcement agencies). However, the fight is still competitive, because this time the government is quite weak in terms of rating. This government is not as strong in terms of efficient use of administrative resources and human resources as previous governments were. In “Civil Contract” there is only Nikol Pashinyan, who can bring a real voice, and the rest create more problems for the team with their words and actions. And besides, how little we talked before, we have never had such a resourceful opposition. Today, the opposition has resources in all aspects, both financial, political, foreign relations, economic, media and structures. It is this competitiveness that throws Nikol Pashinyan off balance, and the process gets out of control even by his own standards.

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