“Divorce” or shock? what will happen to RA if it leaves EAEU?

Relations between Armenia and Russia are experiencing perhaps the most complicated period in the entire post-Soviet history, gradually moving from a hidden freeze to a public clarification (dotting all the “i’s”). The resounding statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was made on May 9, 2026, became a catalyst for wide public and expert discussions.

Commenting on Yerevan’s desire to get closer to the West and the prospects of European integration, the Russian leader directly called on the Armenian authorities to orientate themselves on their geopolitical and economic vector. According to Putin, it would be logical to hold a referendum in the country to find out the opinion of the citizens of Armenia. do they want to join the European Union or stay within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)? The Russian President emphasized that Moscow does not intend to obstruct the Armenian people’s election. In the event that the public votes for the European path, Russia, according to him, will make appropriate decisions and will be ready to follow the path of “gentle, intelligent and mutually beneficial divorce”.

This rhetoric of “civilized divorce” is actually putting a cross on the perennial Armenian policy of balancing. Yerevan is openly asked a question. choose between two incompatible customs and economic blocs. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already responded to this statement, rejecting the very term “divorce” and declaring that a referendum will be held only when its “objective necessity” arises.
However, the question remains open. Is Armenia practically ready for such a scenario? Will the country’s economy, which is deeply integrated into the Russian market and critically dependent on Russian energy sources, survive the severance of conventional ties? And how realistic are the hopes that Europe will be able to compensate for these huge losses?

In order to understand these complex issues, VERELQ magazine spoke with the famous Armenian economist Tatul Manaseryan. Below is the full version of this interview, organically supplemented with the necessary context, so that even a reader not delving into economic nuances can understand the essence of the tectonic shifts taking place.

VERELQ: As for the latest statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin… Let’s recall that he mentioned that Armenia should decide as soon as possible on its geopolitical vector: to stay in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU: an economic integration bloc under the auspices of the Russian Federation) or to leave it and take a course towards joining the European Union. Basically, Yerevan was offered a “civilized divorce” option, so to speak. What do you think such a harsh wording of the question indicates? And is Armenia and its economy ready for such a civilized severing of ties with Russia?

Tatul Manaseryan. First of all, we should probably approach this issue not only and not so much from the perspective of the interests of Armenia itself, but from the position of how the Russian Federation sees it.

It is necessary to understand the logic of the head of the Kremlin, because during large-scale military operations (he means the events taking place in Ukraine), when, unfortunately, the political palette does not consist of many colors, but becomes strictly black and white, the principle is clear: Russia’s enemies cannot be its friends. And, according to the head of the Russian Federation, the states that openly oppose Moscow cannot be close friends of Russia’s strategic partner, Armenia. The logic of the Russian demand is hidden in this. I think that Armenia needs a consequence for itself do, and the choice is unfortunately unavoidable.

If we remember the year 2017, then Armenia managed to successfully combine the two directions. we were in the EAEU, but at the same time we signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the European Union. But then, of course, there was no war. Yes, there was tension, a tense geopolitical situation and complicated relations between Russia, the European Union and NATO. But now it is quite obvious that more than fifty countries are indirectly at war with Russia in one way or another.

And Moscow, according to Putin and other Russian leaders, does not welcome, so to speak, the two-faced steps and expressions of its allies. Unfortunately, Armenia faces a tough choice, and the traditional “complementary policy” (that is, trying to sit on two chairs and balance between the West and the Russian Federation) may no longer be appropriate here. Well, it cannot be said that this demand arose without reason. occasions in the face of unfriendly steps and statements that have recently taken place in Yerevan were sufficient.

And what economic damage will be done to Armenia in case of severing of ties? I think one could start with the energy security threat (since we are critically dependent on Russian gas and nuclear fuel supplies). Next comes food security. Will Armenia be able to provide itself with basic products at the expense of other sources outside the EAEU? This is a big question. Well, without strategic goals, without a clearly defined strategy of diplomacy, it is impossible to get along here, of course.

VERELQ: It is clear. Let’s dive into the economy. In your opinion, which sectors of the Armenian economy will suffer the most if Armenia is deprived of duty-free access to markets and leaves the EAEU?

Tatul Manaseryan. I already said that it is primarily the energy sector.
And the second is the food supply, in particular, grain and wheat. This is what we now import on preferential terms from Russia, and we have also recently imported from Kazakhstan. Let me remind you that Kazakhstan is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, and leaving the bloc will also complicate logistics with it.
The next sector is the banking sector and the financial system of Armenia as a whole. It is no secret to anyone that more than half of the financial capital in our banking system is capital of Russian origin. And I don’t think that under the current state of things, Armenia will be able to avoid serious financial threats and economic fluctuations in the event of a break in relations.

There are also a number of other important issues. It should not be forgotten that most of the Armenian migrant workers are in Russia. The social aspect of this phenomenon cannot be underestimated. the money and capitals that come from Russia in the form of private transfers (money transfers from relatives) literally keep thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of families in Armenia.
Other sectors will also be hit, such as construction, since we get most of our building materials from Russia anyway. Agriculture can be seriously affected, after all, Armenia sends more than 80% of its agricultural products to the Russian market (where there are no customs barriers). And it’s not just raw materials, it’s flowers and a variety of ready-to-eat foods with high added value. Meanwhile, Armenia currently exports mostly cheap raw materials and semi-finished products (such as copper ore) to the European Union. Well, to put it briefly, the picture is like this.

VERELQ: Perhaps the last question. Will the European Union somehow soften this economic blow for us or not? Or, taking into account that we only export raw materials there, it is unlikely to completely replace the Russian market with the European one?

Tatul Manaseryan. They will be able to soften the blow only with promises. You yourself understand that today Europe is not able to solve even its own problems related to the energy crisis and security that arose after giving up Russian energy carriers. And without ensured energy security, no sector of the economy can function smoothly.

VERELQ: OK, got it. In other words, the prospect that Armenian products will flow massively and be successfully sold on the European market is rather unrealistic?

Tatul Manaseryan. It is currently a myth. Because even if the energy issue is completely resolved in Europe itself, and even if Europe can (and this is a fantastic scenario for now) help Armenia in ensuring our energy security, Armenian products are still not very competitive.

They are not yet ready to appear en masse on the European market and compete there with local products that are subsidized by the state. In addition, the EU has strict quality standards, quotas and phytosanitary norms. So, we have to go through very long and complicated stages of internal reforms in order to really reach the European market.

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