These days, there is an atmosphere of preparation for victory in Baku.
While the Armenian society is mired in political turbulence, and the leadership of Armenia is moving towards the West, Baku is moving from words to action.
On June 18-19, a festival with the eloquent name “Return to Western Azerbaijan” will be held near Baku. This is a clear political signal. In Baku, they no longer act according to the logic of the status quo, but think about the “usurpation” of new territories, territories that are part of the sovereign territory of Armenia.
However, the main intrigue will be resolved much earlier, on June 7. Apparently, Ilham Aliyev is already preparing to celebrate the victory over Armenia.
The main instrument of that victory is not the weapon, but the upcoming elections in Armenia.
The reproduction of Nikol Pashinyan’s power in Yerevan will be a real victory for Baku. A government that is weak, dependent on external beneficiaries and has weak internal legitimacy is Azerbaijan’s best ally.
It was during Pashinyan’s rule that Armenia gave up Artsakh step by step, and today Armenia already limits its jurisdiction and sovereignty in its own territory.
Armenia is currently in the status of condemned. Armenia has found itself in deep political isolation. We have ruined relations with Russia, but we have not filled the security vacuum with new alliance ties.
The conflict with Moscow, groundless emotionally and pragmatically, collapsed the existing security system, and new ones were not created.
Armenia has appeared in a security vacuum.
Here the bitter truth must be told directly. The EU and the United States are unreliable partners. When it comes to real military support, Brussels and Washington remember their own interests first. No American soldier will stand at the border of Nakhichevan, no European observer will block the corridor with his body. The West has its interests in the South Caucasus, the service of which Armenia often puts in the status of a small coin.
The conflict with Russia will have severe economic and security consequences for Armenia.
The possible removal of Moscow from Armenia will create a vacuum, which will quickly be filled by the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem. Baku clearly sees this vulnerability and only increases the pressure.
The consequence is inevitable. Today, Armenia, without allies, is defenseless against the aggressive ambitions of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Ankara and Baku are working in tandem to demand the Zangezur Corridor.
Armenia does not have and will not have serious support from the West. in western capitals they have other priorities.
That is why they are excited in Baku. If Pashinyan retains power again on June 7, the victory of Azerbaijan’s agenda will become final and irreversible.
This undesirable scenario for Armenia can be stopped only in one case: Armenian society must reject Pashinyan’s rule on June 7.
Political scientist Suren Surenyants
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