Armenia balances between Russia and Europe

A clear orientation towards the West despite dependence on Russia: Armenia is moving politically and strategically closer to the EU, as the EU-Armenia summit showed. However, the path is not easy.

“I believe this is a historic step for Armenia – this step towards Europe. It will bring many positive things,” says Varduhi Gasaprian, a young Armenian woman in central Yerevan.

The capital was very lively these days. Almost 40 European heads of state and government, as well as representatives of the most important institutions of the European Union, were in Armenia.

The European Political Community (EPC), a forum created in response to the war in Ukraine, met for the first time in the South Caucasus. A strong signal to the West – at a crucial moment in Armenia’s long history. And at the same time, a message to the population: Europe is serious, close cooperation will continue.

The Presidential Palace hosted a reception for the European Union summit: blue sky, red carpet, the anthems of Europe and Armenia.

“A turning point in the deepening of our relations,” said European Council President Antonio Costa. Strengthening ties could open up new job opportunities in the areas of transport, energy and digitalisation.

A historical place, a geopolitical crossroads
This is how Varduhi Gasaprian, who makes a living from tourism, sees it: “Although Armenians are a very strong people, in the current political situation we definitely need support – from the European side, from the Russian side, or from all the great powers.”

Armenia is located at the geopolitical crossroads of Europe, Russia, the Middle East, and Central Asia – landlocked. Because of this position, it has been exposed to foreign rule, conflict, and geopolitical pressures over the centuries.

Today, Armenia is still heavily marked by its Soviet legacy. The small mountainous country of three million people, nestled between Europe and Asia, is home to one of the world’s oldest Christian cultures.

The Balance of East and West

Armenia’s European course is a balancing act, Jakob Wellenstein of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation told Deutsche Welle. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is leading the country towards the West – very carefully and step by step.

“Armenia does not want to rush to break off relations with Russia – it simply cannot afford to do so,” says Wellenstein. Economic and security ties with Moscow remain very strong. At the same time, Armenia is trying to maintain good relations with its neighbors and not antagonize anyone – but at the same time it is clearly pursuing a Western orientation.

“The central message is that Armenia is successfully diversifying its foreign policy,” Benjamin Pogosyan of the Armenian APRI Institute for Applied Policy Studies told DW. The country is trying to gain new partners and friends and expand the circle of countries with which it has excellent relations – primarily with the EU. Normalizing relations with neighbors Azerbaijan and Turkey is also part of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s strategy.

A positive wind before the elections

On the domestic front, the big European rallies are of great importance, as parliamentary elections are held on June 7. “These summits represent a strong positive wind for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan,” says Tigran Grigoryan of the Regional Center for Democracy and Security. It is also a message to Armenian voters that this government has the support of Brussels – and that it would be good for it to get a new mandate.

Growing pressure from Russia

As Armenia prepares for the final stages of its election campaign, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns are on the rise – mainly from Russia. Europe is sending experts and a European partnership mission is helping the country confront these threats.

“The only legitimate source of power in this country is the will of the Armenian people,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Tigran Grigoryan warns: “Recently, there have been growing signs that Russia is ready to use tougher measures against Armenia. Last month, we heard numerous threats from Russia. The Russian side is also raising the goal of integration into the European Union.”

The atmosphere has changed significantly. Polls show a strong pro-European sentiment and declining support for Russia.

EU membership is still a distant goal

However, it is clear that membership in the European Union is still a long way off. Armenia has not yet applied for membership, and the accession process could take decades. However, the country wants to follow that path.

“For us, this is an additional argument to give a new impetus to our democratic reforms,” says Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Regardless of the outcome of the process, Armenia wants to achieve EU standards.

“For me, for all the Armenian people, this seems like a good thing – new chances, new opportunities,” says Laura Hayrapetyan. Her husband, Arsen Hostenyan, adds: “We also want good relations with the Russian people, so that something good can come out of them. We have lived side by side for a hundred years. I would like to live on good terms with all the peoples of the world.”/DW/