The current situation is a stalemate. US negotiations with Iran are on a lethargic rest, and as of now, are non-existent rather than ongoing. Israel is trying to rearm and prepare for the next stage of the confrontation. Missiles, anti-missile systems, ammunition, various types of military equipment and armored vehicles are actively imported by sea and air.
This proves that despite attempts to separate the military theaters against Iran and Lebanon, they remain interconnected. And in Lebanon, the expansion of the scale of Israel’s ground operations is becoming an agenda item.
Between Lebanon and Israel, violations of the officially achieved ceasefire regime (often by Hezbollah) show how far the sides are from a diplomatic solution and how close the region is to another major explosion. By the way, “Hezbollah” seems to have found Israel’s vulnerability against kamikaze ATS, and the attacks directed at the latter are carried out with exactly that type of drones.
The IDF urgently needs a system to counter or neutralize this threat. That problem also exists for the US if the Pentagon decides to launch limited ground operations.
A White House official (according to ABC News) has confirmed that President Trump’s administration is in intensive negotiations with the US Congress to get permission to continue the war against Iran.
If Congress approves it, along with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the option of resuming military operations may be feasible for Trump and his team.
This phase of the temporary ceasefire helps the US regroup and increase its military presence, direct and gain control over the region’s oil and gas resources, their revenues and markets, and keep Iran under economic restraints.
Iran strives to create a favorable external environment for its future actions through active diplomacy, to re-arm and restore the infrastructural damage caused inside the country, preparing for possible military operations.
For Israel, the cease-fire period with Iran is an opportunity to more intensively continue the chords of the military-political struggle against “Hezbollah” and “Hamas”.
After the last “negotiations” in Islamabad, one thing is clear that the current situation is deadlocked. there is no turning back for Iran, the US, or Israel.
Former RA Deputy Defense Minister Artak Zakaryan
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