168: War and peace do not depend on one person. Aliyev is our dignity

In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan the guest American-Armenian conflict expert, specialist in international conflict resolution and negotiations (Conflict Resolution, International Law, Mediation), Doctor of Law Hrayr Balyan.

Hrayr Balyan was one of the authors of the speeches of the 39th President of the USA, Jimmy Carter, he was in 2008-2022. was the director of The Carter Center’s Conflict Resolution Program.  He worked for the United Nations, OSCE/ODIHR and a number of prestigious non-governmental organizations and held leadership positions at the “Covcas Center for Law and Conflict Resolution” in Geneva, the International Crisis Group in Sarajevo and other institutions. In addition to his fieldwork, Hrayr Balyan practiced law in the United States and presented the details of his experience through lectures at a number of universities and academic institutions around the world. Currently, his subjects of study are the South Caucasus and the Levant.

Why is Nikol Pashinyan threatening the people, blackmailing them, threatening with war, even setting a deadline: if he is not re-elected, there will be a war in September, and now his teammates are saying that if there is no Nikol Pashinyan, there will be no Armenia.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• If we take an example from the already former prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, who also told his people that if he is not elected, a war with Ukraine will start, we will see a different example. In Hungary, the people did not believe his words and voted for the collective opposition.

• War and peace do not depend on one person. They depend on various factors: Armenia’s defensiveness, Azerbaijan’s internal situation, the international situation… Pashinyan’s blackmail is only aimed at dividing and scaring the people. 

• I cannot say what is in his (Pashinyan’s, editor’s) mind, or whether he has an agreement with Azerbaijan or not, to specify the dates for the start of the war.

It is not right to go to the elections with threats of war. I can’t and I don’t want to guess what is in the mind of the prime minister, who is talking about a possible war if he is not elected.

• The peace agreement is only initialed, has no legal force and has many gaps. If it is signed in this form, it is a problem. In that document, there is no mention of the 19 hostages held in Baku, there is no mention of the occupied territories of Armenia. There are also other issues that do not exist in that initialed document.

• Azerbaijan not only makes demands before us, but also takes hostile steps towards us. The last one was the destruction of Stepanakert Cathedral by Azerbaijanis. Bad messages are coming from Baku։

• A peace treaty can be signed between two parties on a piece of paper, but in order to establish peace between peoples with that piece of paper, the issues between the two peoples must be resolved. Until these issues are resolved, there can be no peace. Peace established on paper is very easy to disrupt. As long as Armenian hatred does not retreat in Azerbaijan, there can be no peace։

• Today, the Azerbaijani army controls Artsakh and 7 regions around Artsakh. How many Azerbaijanis returned there?․․․ A few hundred?․․․ I consider the talk of 300,000 Azerbaijanis returning to Armenia to be absurd if they do not go to live in the territories under the control of Azerbaijan.։

To remind: Ilham Aliyev in 2025 on December 18 had announced, that 300,000 Azerbaijanis have appealed to the RA government to create conditions for their return, adding that they are still waiting for the RA authorities’ answer on that issue.

• Azerbaijan demands to change the Constitution of Armenia, Armenia does not present a similar demand, and in general the parties are in unequal conditions. The demands presented by Azerbaijan are opposed to the spirit of the peace treaty. Azerbaijan has already violated many points of the initial document. In this case, Armenia should also present demands: withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Armenia, stop destroying the historical and cultural monuments of Artsakh, and stop the speech of Armenian hatred.

• Aliyev is keeping 19 hostages to humiliate us, to throw our dignity into the mud. Armenia’s concessions must end. Armenia should demand the return of the hostages։

• I saw the picture of Khor Virap in the new passports from the opposite side, so that Ararat cannot be seen… I think the next step should be to draw a curtain on the border so that Armenians cannot see Ararat։

• The change of the negotiator depends on the people’s vote. We will see how the people will vote on June 7.

• Today we are at a turning point in history when international and even local rights are being ignored by the superpowers and their allies. Even America advocates the use of force, ignoring international law. The war against Iran is a vivid example of this. Turkey is doing the same thing against the minorities inside its country, particularly the Kurds. Israel does the same. In all parts of the world, power decides. This started 10-15 years ago and is getting worse. I cannot say when we will return to the field of law. Against the power of others, we must oppose our power, not relying only on the right.

• Artsakh page cannot be closed. Only the displaced people of Artsakh can close that page, and they have no such intention. The people of Artsakh have the right to return, the right to own their property, and it is Armenia’s duty and obligation to help the people of Artsakh in this matter.։

• The Meghri issue was raised by Heydar Aliyev in the negotiations, when starting in 1999․–from to Key West, was negotiating with Robert Kocharyan. Aliyev proposed to replace Meghri with Karabakh and Lachin Corridor. The government of Armenia offered only to give Azerbaijan a way through the sovereign territory of Armenia. Let the Armenian government publish a document that a document has been negotiated to replace Meghri. there is no such thing, if there was, they would have published it։

• The offer to provide territory to Azerbaijan in Meghri came from the President of Turkey. Paul Goble took this and presented it as a program, which was brought into the middle in 1999․ during negotiations and in 2001․ During the negotiations of Ki Wiest.

• TRIPP is not Goble’s plan, it is different. The TRIPP document has many flaws, and we still do not know what benefits and harms it will bring us, until the details are negotiated, and we are not aware of it. As they say, the devil is in the details. I don’t want to praise Trump, but with TRIPP at least the war against Armenia was postponed.

• Armenia needs the USA to the extent that it has more than one million Armenian votes in America as voters.

• TRIPP is part of the Middle Corridor, and thus it is important for the countries of the region, including Iran, as well as for the USA and Europe.

• Next week, on May 4-5, the heads of countries participating in the European summit will be in Yerevan. This is a demonstration of support for Nikol Pashinyan. This summit cannot have any other advantage for Armenia. During those two days, Armenia will be in the center of international news, and both the government and the opposition should understand how to benefit from it. Can the opposition organize such demonstrations that the European leaders know that we have hostages in Baku, and until they are repatriated, there will be no peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Leaders of European countries should know and be ashamed, raise the issue before Baku։

• I will not be surprised that after the European summit, the pressure against the opposition will intensify in order to ensure the reproduction of Pashinyan.

• If one day negotiations on the return of Artsakh residents begin, the OSCE Minsk Group negotiation documents will be useless if there is not enough political will to use them.

• The pogroms of Sumgait, Baku, the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh are criminal crimes that have no statute of limitations. These claims have been presented, these claims are being examined in international courts, but the issues of withdrawing the claims are raised in the signed peace agreement, which is wrong. In that way, we will once again choose the path of force over international law։

• In one way or another, the leadership of Armenia tries to deny the Genocide, even blames the Armenian people for it, but the April 23 rally and the April 24 march to the Genocide memorial showed what the people’s opinion is about it.։

• Although it has suffered a lot of damage, Iran has emerged victorious from this war at this moment. Neither Israel nor the US achieved their goals․ Iranian statehood did not collapse. No matter how much the USA declares, the regime has not changed in Iran. On the contrary, more radical people have come to power in Iran. In today’s conditions The logic of TRIPP can be completely changed. 

• Armenia’s EU membership does not depend only on Armenia, but mostly on Europe. Until Europe resolves the issue of Ukraine, it has neither the time nor the desire to deal with Armenia.

• There was a very heavy atmosphere at the Putin-Pashinyan meeting, threat after threat sounded. Putin threatened Pashinyan with Armenia’s economic hardship. We should carefully approach issues with Russia. Armenia may find itself in a difficult economic situation if it is not prudent.