A strategic pause, a realignment or a pause in the war? Trump extension

US President Donald Trump has announced that at the request of Pakistan, he is extending the two-week ceasefire with Iran established on April 8, which expires on April 22. It is noted that the ceasefire is being extended indefinitely.

On the Truth Social platform, Trump wrote that attacks on Iran will be suspended until “the leaders and representatives of that country can come up with a joint proposal.” At the same time, the blockade of Iranian ports will continue.

“Therefore, I have instructed our armed forces to continue the blockade and remain ready and capable in all aspects. The cease-fire will be extended until they present an offer and the discussions are completed, one way or another,” added Trump.

In another post, the US president noted that Iran does not want the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed because it loses $500 million a day. According to Trump, if the naval blockade of Iran ends, “there will never be a deal until we blow up the rest of their country, including their leaders.”

Iran’s Minister of Agriculture also stated that the blockade of Iranian ports by the US had little effect on the country’s ability to supply basic goods and food, noting the high level of domestic production and alternative import routes. “Despite the blockade of the US Navy, we have no problem with the supply of basic goods and food, because due to the size of the country, it is possible to make imports from different borders,” stated the Minister of Agriculture.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked President Trump for extending the ceasefire with Iran on behalf of himself and Field Marshal Asim Munir at the X, noting that it would allow diplomatic efforts to continue. He expressed hope that both sides will continue to maintain the ceasefire and reach a comprehensive peace agreement during the second round of negotiations planned in Islamabad.

Despite the US extension of the ceasefire, Britain’s Maritime Operations Center said that Iranian forces had fired on two cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seriously damaging one.

Majid Mousavi, commander of the Aerospace Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened Iran’s southern neighbors with the destruction of their oil industry if the territory of those countries is used for attacks on Iran.

This situation indicates that a delicate balance has been created in the Middle East, where the parties are trying to avoid a full-scale war while maintaining the maximum pressure levers. Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire but maintain the naval blockade is a classic “whip and donut” policy with several strategic layers.

168.amin a conversation with Russian Turkologist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky said that Washington’s waiting for the Iranian proposal is like a strategic pause, which will give an opportunity to understand how to behave in the future and to reorganize in general, to review the future scenarios of developments.

According to him, this stage is also a similar stage for Tehran, which was able to reach this decision by its resistance. At the same time, according to the analyst, with this latest phase of the war, the current US administration realized that a direct military conflict has unpredictable consequences for the world economy, particularly the energy market.

“Waiting for an offer from Iran, the USA throws the ball into Tehran’s court. Along with all this, the US believes that the blockade causes great damage to Iran, so it is more appropriate not to spend a lot of money on the war itself, but to exhaust Iran with the blockade. However, narrow specialists express different opinions about this calculation. Another important circumstance is that by considering Pakistan’s mediation, the US shows its allies that it is taking them into account. This is important against the background of the decline of the USA’s reputation and reputation as an ally after the developments with the Persian Gulf countries,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

He does not consider this to be a cessation of war, the parties are trying to maintain a policy of maximum pressure on each other, without large-scale military clashes, which could resume at any moment.

“Without hot military operations, however, the war situation, the atmosphere is maintained with all its risks. Naturally, if it is not possible to find some possible deal formula during this pause, the situation will become much more dangerous. However, in Iran, taking into account the previous attempts to negotiate, they understand that simply participating in the negotiation does not solve any issue, the negotiation does not protect against aggression, so there is a way to go and come to a new situation of relations,” he said.

For the South Caucasus and other regions, he said, all this means that the tension in the neighborhood is maintained at the same level, which implies a responsible foreign policy and a correct balancing policy between the East and the West.

“Tensions around Iran are directly projected onto the South Caucasus, where Armenia and Azerbaijan face a difficult choice, having a neighbor Iran that has hard-line positions, and a partner US at a stage of relations when the US is a mediator in the region and is trying to implement big projects.

For the South Caucasus, this means a period of high alert. While superstates are waiting for each other’s proposals, small regional players should also make their own observations, position themselves and be ready for all possible scenarios.

Naturally, the main problematic topic for Iran in this region is American activity in the South Caucasus, we are talking about activity in the direction of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and participation in political and logistical projects, which, as everyone knows, concern Tehran. Today, that concern will be more, therefore, the problems with Iran will be more in that regard. And how the interests of Iran and the USA will be reconciled in the region,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

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