The statement of the US command about the complete sea blockade of Iran has led to a logistical crisis. oil tankers are changing routes in an emergency, and global markets are preparing for a confrontation.
According to LSEG and Kpler monitoring systems, chaotic movement of ships is observed in the water areas of the Middle East. The captains are trying to leave the danger zone before the start of the alleged military operation, which is scheduled for 19:00 Yerevan time (17:00 Kyiv time). In particular, the Mombasa B tanker sailing under the flag of Liberia is carrying out ballasting in the Persian Gulf, and the huge Agios Fanourios I under the flag of Malta has turned over and dropped anchor in the Gulf of Oman.
Reuters analysts note that Donald Trump the administration took an extremely risky step. The success of the operation could deprive Tehran of its main economic lever, oil exports. However, experts doubt the plan’s long-term viability. Former senior Pentagon official Dana Stroll stresses that such a mission requires huge resources, and it will be problematic for Washington to maintain the blockade ring alone for months.
Additional geopolitical risks are related to the reaction of the largest energy importers, China and India. According to experts, Beijing is unlikely to remain an indifferent observer. In addition, there is a high probability of retaliatory steps by Tehran. Reserve Admiral Gerry Roughhead warned that the Iranian armed forces will most likely retaliate against American infrastructure and military bases in the region.
The growing tension has already affected the world stock markets. Expectations of possible supply disruptions and a protracted conflict have sent prices soaring. during the morning trading, the price of one barrel of oil reached the mark of 102 dollars.
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