If the price of gas triples, our energy system will collapse. Atom Marg

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk warned on the air of Russian Channel One that in case of Armenia’s accession to the European Union, Armenia will not have air communication with Russia. This is not all. The Russian official also noted that Armenia is very close to the point after which Russia will have to build economic relations with Yerevan in a different way.

The RA authorities have announced that they aim to join the European Union.

On April 1, during the meeting held in the Kremlin with RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that it is not possible to be a member of both EAEU and EU at the same time.

Pashinyan answered: “What we are doing and our agenda are compatible at the moment, and as long as it is possible to combine those two agendas, we will combine them. When it is not possible and a decision must be made, I am sure that the citizens of Armenia will make a decision.”

This choice between the EU and EAEU, which was proposed to the authorities during and after Pashinyan’s last visit to Moscow, is considered by various circles as an attempt at pressure.

Why and what was actually said on the topic? 168․am-answered the questions economist Atom Margaryan.

“The EU and EAEU are different integration entities, with their institutions, their formats, their regulations, their customs territory and, of course, taking into account the geopolitical realities, the Russian-Ukrainian war, etc., they are opposites.

What the Russian side says has, of course, objective grounds. On the other hand, there is also a question of orientation. If you are in the customs territory of the Eurasian Economic Union, you use that privileged status, you cannot take the road towards the EU.

But the problem is that Russian assets, investments, gas supply, the Russian market have no direct alternative for us, at least for the moment, at least in the visible horizon,” the economist added.

In this context, he referred to the bill on the initiation of the EU membership process, fully adopted by the National Assembly on March 26.

“The law on membership of the European Union, which was adopted, is just nonsense without consultations, without broad discussions, without, ultimately, a referendum,” he remarked.

Atom Margaryan drew attention especially to the issue of energy carriers, reminding Putin’s records regarding the gas tariff.

“If the price of gas triples, it means that our energy system will collapse. Those branches that are sitting on Russian gas will also collapse. There are different estimates of inflation. it can reach up to 20-25%. All livelihood sectors that depend on transport and energy sources will simply become uncompetitive. This is a very simple, elementary calculation.

The other is logistics. announced that if you join the European Union, air traffic will be stopped, this will also lead to collapse.

Next are the labor markets. there are 700,000-800,000 Armenian workers who are in the Russian Federation either with RA citizenship or with dual citizenship. Those people can simply be told to take their things and go to their homeland. what should they do?

These are in addition to the private transfers of 3-4 billion dollars every year, which enter Armenia from the Russian Federation,” explained Atom Margaryan.

The economist responded to the observation that the RA authorities mentioned about combining. “But what does it mean to combine? you can work with 3rd countries, like, let’s say, they work with other countries like China and India, but being a member of an integration organization means that the customs border is simply closed.

It is one thing to work with the European Union and quite another to be part of the EU, and the tariff and non-tariff regulations that operate within the borders of the Eurasian Economic Union, and Armenia, as a member of it, benefits from it, will cease to exist in a day.

But it will take decades to reach European Union standards, it is not easy to get there. The same Moldova, Ukraine – what is their condition, they are candidates for that membership? So, it is not saying that, and it is simply impossible from the point of view of legal regulations.”

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