Increasing the priority of the economy in Armenian-Russian relations is not

The Pashinyan-Putin meeting held in the Kremlin the other day continues to be widely discussed in the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections and tense internal political developments in Armenia. As we already reported, in his speech, Russian President Putin emphasized the benefits that Armenia’s economy receives due to EAEU membership and cheap Russian gas prices.

Vladimir Putin also referred to the prospect of RA EU membership, talking about the impossibility of combining EAEU with EU.  And most notably, Putin said that he would like pro-Russian forces in Armenia to be able to participate in internal political developments and not face restrictions.

The meeting was followed by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk’s reference to the current Armenian-Russian situation, saying that Yerevan is very close to the point after which Russia “will be forced to build” economic relations with Armenia in a different way. According to him, in case of Armenia’s accession to the European Union, Armenia will not have air communication with Russia. “Now there is no air communication with the countries of the European Union. This means that we will not have air communication with Armenia,” said the Russian Deputy Prime Minister.

According to Overchuk, the citizens of Armenia should be aware of the possible consequences of the decision taken by the official Yerevan regarding rapprochement with the European Union. “Perhaps it sounds very harsh, but we want people in Armenia to understand that if this happens, it will happen, because the decisions of rapprochement with the European Union have been made,” said the Russian official. By the way, Overchuk is the official who from time to time addresses the topic of Armenia’s EU integration, noting the impossibility of the EU and EAEU, and the fact that Russian business is beginning to lose interest in Armenia. In one of his last references, he also noted a trend that the Armenian-Russian trade turnover is starting to decrease significantly. This was also done by the Russian President during his previous meeting with Pashinyan.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Konstantin Simonov said that the Armenian-Russian relations have entered a pragmatic phase based on mutual interests. According to him, there is a significant decrease in the component of political loyalty in relations.

“Naturally, the economy came to the fore, because Yerevan is trying to seek political cooperation, as well as security in the West. This is a qualitative change due to regional realities, reinterpretation of the parties’ interests. For years, Armenian-Russian relations were built mainly around security: military cooperation, presence of a military base, Russia’s role as the main guarantor of security. However, the events of recent years have reduced the perception of the effectiveness of that model, as a result of which there has been a need to rethink the structure of relations. And against this background, the economy becomes the platform where the parties can maintain and even develop cooperation, avoiding the sharpest political contradictions.

It is especially important that Armenia remains a member of EAEU, which provides access to the Russian market, and for Russia, Armenia is an important economic partner in the region, both as a market and as a platform to maintain economic presence in the South Caucasus. In this sense, the deepening of economic relations also has a geopolitical context.

Emphasizing economic priority does not mean that political or security issues are completely off the agenda, but they have been moved to the background. This can be interpreted as an attempt to depoliticize relations in a difficult period, when the parties focus on the areas where cooperation is more realistic and effective,” said Simonov.

Therefore, according to him, it is no coincidence that the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation mostly refers to Armenian-Russian relations, referring to EAEU, economy, business, etc.   According to him, increasing the priority of the economy in Armenian-Russian relations is not only a situational step, but also a consequence of new realities, an attempt to maintain the strategic connection in the changing geopolitical environment, moving it to a more pragmatic and calculated dimension.

“However, the stability and effectiveness of this process will depend on the extent to which the parties will be able to combine economic interests with security and political contradictions. At the same time, Russia’s desire to maintain its influence is noticeable. However, the observations about the gas price and the impossibility of the EU-EEU combination should not be considered as a negative statement, I think that these statements are aimed at showing the fact that Armenia’s benefits are in the EEU, and Armenia aspires to the EU, which, if it joins, cannot be a member of the EEU and receive the same benefits as currently. This is an open conversation, I think it’s natural that it’s like this, because it’s about the quality of people’s lives,” said Simonov.

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