Russian Deputy Prime Minister Warns Armenia’s EU Aspirations And Actions Agai

On April 2, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk warned that Armenia’s EU-oriented policies and actions against Russian businesses may force Moscow to reconsider economic ties, citing risks to investments, transit routes, and nuclear cooperation.

Overchuk stated in an interview with TASS that Armenia has approached a threshold at which Russia may be forced to revise its economic ties with the country. He noted that although Armenian officials consistently affirm their friendship with Russia and commitment to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during bilateral and multilateral meetings, “comparing words with actions” suggests otherwise. According to him, Moscow maintains open and respectful dialogue, yet observes discrepancies between Yerevan’s statements and its policies.

Overchuk emphasized that despite assurances from Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, that Russian businesses face no risks in the country, developments indicate the opposite. He recalled that during discussions last summer, Pashinyan directly denied any threats to Russian investors, but subsequent actions have raised concerns. “We see that we are being told one thing, while in reality, something completely different is happening,” Overchuk stated, pointing to alleged violations of property rights involving a Russian businessman in the electricity sector and pressure on a Russian state-owned company to sell its railway concession.

He further underlined that Moscow is aware of both external and internal forces in Armenia seeking to reduce cooperation with Russia. Referring to Armenia’s adoption of a declarative law expressing its aspiration to join the European Union and efforts to align with EU standards, Overchuk argued that recent actions against Russian economic interests should be viewed within this broader political context.

Addressing regional infrastructure, Overchuk stated that the United States is interested in establishing a transport corridor through Armenia—referred to as the “Trump Route”—to facilitate the export of critical minerals from Central Asia and to strengthen oversight of Iran’s northern border. He added that various regional actors attach different strategic importance to the route, including Azerbaijan’s interest in reconnecting its territory and expanding access to Turkey.

Overchuk also drew attention to developments surrounding the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, stressing that Russia is closely monitoring decisions regarding its extension and Armenia’s broader nuclear energy policy. He remarked that explanations provided by Armenian authorities regarding dissatisfaction with an electricity company’s services remain an internal matter, yet emphasized that “property rights are primary” and that state seizures undermine investor confidence. According to him, such precedents increase perceived risks, reduce asset values, and encourage short-term profit strategies among investors.

Discussing regional transport cooperation, Overchuk stated that Armenia halted engagement with Russia on unblocking routes after previously agreeing in 2023 on principles such as sovereignty and reciprocity with Azerbaijan. He argued that this shift has exposed Armenia to “new, very serious threats” that did not previously exist. At the same time, he stressed that both Moscow and Yerevan share an interest in reopening transport links, particularly through the Meghri route, which could enhance connectivity with Iran, Turkey, and other EAEU markets.

Overchuk claimed that Armenia is being prepared for EU membership, which Russia considers a hostile bloc, warning that such a course would entail significant long-term consequences. He linked this trajectory to decisions regarding railway concessions and broader economic policy, asserting that these moves align with Yerevan’s declared rapprochement with the EU.

He also criticized plans for Western data center construction in Armenia, arguing that such projects generate minimal employment and complicate tax collection, while contributing to rising electricity prices that would affect both households and businesses.

Turning to the regional balance, Overchuk stated that the agreement on the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” has disrupted longstanding stability in the South Caucasus. He referenced the historical framework established after the Treaty of Turkmenchay in 1828, noting that recent developments have altered established geopolitical dynamics. According to him, Russia’s participation in trilateral negotiations had previously ensured a balance of interests among Armenia, Azerbaijan, and other regional actors.

He noted that Armenia’s decision to proceed with the project without Russia, alongside Turkey’s ongoing railway construction toward Nakhichevan, has reduced clarity regarding the future of the Meghri section and increased pressure on Armenia. Overchuk described the exclusion of Russia from negotiations as “a big mistake.”

According to Overchuk, Armenia agreed to retain only 26% of transit revenues under the new route, effectively ceding 74%, which he characterized as a sovereign but potentially disadvantageous decision. He argued that continued participation in the trilateral framework could have ensured full ownership and near-completion of the project under more favorable terms.

He also questioned the long-term viability of the corridor, citing reliance on cargo transported across the Caspian Sea, which is shrinking due to climate change. This, he stated, introduces significant investment risks and may necessitate reliance on Russian rail infrastructure or costly dredging operations. “This is not fantasy,” Overchuk emphasized, referencing the rapid environmental decline of the Aral Sea as a precedent.

Additionally, Overchuk pointed out that Turkey is already constructing a direct railway connection to Azerbaijan, regardless of Armenia’s involvement, thereby limiting Yerevan’s ability to influence future cargo flows. He warned that if Russia’s economic interests in Armenia diminish, transit through Armenian territory may also decline, further restricting the country’s negotiating leverage.

Addressing nuclear energy cooperation, Overchuk stated that Russia’s state corporation Rosatom could extend the operation of Armenia’s nuclear power plant until 2036, provided certain conditions are met. However, he criticized Armenia’s preference for European contractors, arguing that they lack experience in seismically active regions and fail to coordinate adequately with the plant’s original designers. He stressed that Rosatom’s involvement must constitute at least 70% of the work to ensure safety guarantees.

Overchuk highlighted Russia’s global leadership in nuclear construction, noting its extensive portfolio of projects worldwide. He added that while Armenia has shown interest in small modular reactors, only Russian technology currently offers viable solutions, a fact well understood by Armenian specialists.

He further warned that discussions about limiting the presence of Russian companies in Armenia could prompt reciprocal considerations regarding Armenian businesses operating in Russia. Emphasizing that economic relations are a “two-way street,” he suggested that restrictions on one side would inevitably affect the other.

Overchuk also expressed skepticism about Armenia’s prospects in EU markets, particularly for agricultural and beverage exports, urging businesses to realistically assess these opportunities. He noted that expectations of replacing EAEU trade with EU trade may not align with actual European market access.

Finally, Overchuk stated that discussions about Armenia’s EU integration have already had tangible economic consequences. He noted that mutual trade between Russia and Armenia declined from $11.5 billion in 2024 to approximately $6.4 billion in 2025, attributing a $5.1 billion loss to uncertainty surrounding Yerevan’s geopolitical orientation. “How do you think Russian entrepreneurs will react,” he asked, “if Russian businesses are forced out of Armenia while Armenian companies continue operating in Russia?”

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