There is no danger of a new military escalation by Azerbaijan. Benjamin Poghosyan

During the discussion about the US-Israeli war against Iran and its impact on the South Caucasus, senior researcher of APRI Armenia Analytical Center, candidate of historical sciences, Beniamin Poghosyan stated that Turkey wants to do everything not to get involved in this war, despite the cases of missile launches by Iran in the direction of its airspace, which, of course, still need to be investigated.

“There is a clear perception in Turkey that this is not Turkey’s war, and everything should be done to avoid direct involvement. And secondly, everything must be done to prevent the partition of Iran, because there are serious concerns in Turkey that in case of any partition of Iran, Turkey will have another Kurdish autonomy in Iran, where the number of Kurds is much larger than in Syria. If we talk about the humanitarian consequences, they are limited enough for now,” he continued, adding that at the moment, the events are not developing in a scenario where the situation will go out of the control of the Iranian authorities, which will lead to a large influx of refugees. flow, which cannot bypass Armenia either.

“There is no flow of refugees, moreover, there is no such information either from Turkey, Iran, or Azerbaijan,” Beniamin Poghosyan said.

Referring to the impact of the war on Armenia-Azerbaijan, Armenia-Turkey relations, according to the political scientist, here we have approximately the same situation as after August 8, 2025, when the Washington Declaration was signed.

“The risk of a new military escalation on the part of Azerbaijan remains zero. But also, Baku continues to link the signing of the final peace agreement with the amendment of the RA constitution, in particular with the removal of the reference to the Declaration of Independence from the constitution. And the complete regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations, including the complete opening of the border, then Turkey’s position here is the same, it will be only after the final signing and ratification of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty,” Poghosyan explained.

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