Before and after the September wars. What has changed today and what hasn’t?

After the government session on March 19, Nikol Pashinyan briefed the opposition forces again accused in provoking a war and even specified a clear deadline. “All these forces are acting from the positions of peace revision, which due to this fact means an inevitable war, moreover, not long after the elections, maximally in the fall. I analyze the texts, right? They are preparing a war with grave consequences.”

Why September again, a “strategic deal” with Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani threats, availability of intelligence data based on some unseen circumstances and an assessment of the probability of war operations, or psychological pressure on the Armenian society before the elections?

Basically, all 3 versions have the right to life. But first let’s talk about the last one. The public has hard memories related to the month of September: the 44-day war in Artsakh began On September 27, 2020, the September battles took place on September 13-14, 2022, in 2023, Artsakh was completely depopulated again on September 19-20.

In other words, on the one hand, the current government of RA does not go to “Yerablur” on September 27 or September 19 to pay tribute to the memory of the victims, and to forget the struggle for Artsakh, on the other hand, it is playing on the public’s memory and emotional strings. What is this if not psychological terror?

Now what about the capabilities of the authorities to predict the war and not only, first of all, just a few episodes in the context of the 44-day period, because we have covered it in detail on different occasions.

Thus, the exact date of the war became clear 2 days after its beginning: On September 25, 2020, and here it is enough to remind only on September 26, 2020 According to Pashinyan’s family newspaper, “Armenian “freelancers” of Azerbaijani propaganda”. the article where he blames the opposition for not believing in him and believing in Aliyev, excluding the imminent war and Turkey’s direct participation in it.

“…Allegedly, Azerbaijan used those two years to strengthen the front line and prepare for war, while our authorities were busy fighting internal political opponents, and now they are preparing a propaganda ground to involve Turkey directly in a new war, and we are consistently spoiling our relations with Russia, therefore, we have serious security problems and we must get rid of these authorities as soon as possible.

Since when did Armenia begin to believe more not in its own authorities, but in the President of Azerbaijan? and: legally speaking, what is the name of spreading the enemy’s propaganda in one’s own country and justifying its legitimacy?”, the article states.

And nothing that after the July battles at that time Hulusi Akar, head of the Turkish Defense Department, to Armenia had threatened take countermeasures to: “The death of Azerbaijani soldiers will not go unpunished.”

At the same time, Aliyev made a clear demand from the UN chair: RA should withdraw its troops from the “occupied territories”.

Nikol Pashinyan, in his turn, gave an interview to Petros Ghazaryan, which was never broadcast in its entirety, nor was it handed over. At the trial of the 44-day investigative commission, as promised.

And after the war, Nikol Pashinyan put the responsibility of predicting it and even changing his mind on the “relevant institutions”.

Meanwhile, still in 2019 in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia warned that the next war will be bigger than the April 2016 war.

And from here I asked Pashinyan: legally, what is it called or what are the consequences of not only hiding the fact of an impending war from the public of one’s country, but also not preparing for it?

And on March 20, Andranik Kocharyan, Chairman of the Standing Committee on Defense and Security of the National Assembly, on the air of “News Radio” allegedly tried to “stick” the former, considering the contents of the arsenal as the reason for the defeat in the 44-day war, from helmets to the ammunition supplied by Davit Galstyan (Boss David), in particular, the “junk missiles”.

In other words, Andranik Kocharyan repeated Nikol Pashinyan, who years ago in the National Assembly had announced թե՝ “For the first time, a few days after the war, I learned that there is a problem with helmets and body armor in the army”, to which the former Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia Davit Tonoyan responded from the detention center, saying that «weapons and military equipment, ներառյալ՝ The demand for helmets and body armor was presented in detail in the “Weapons and Military Equipment Development Program”. which was last reaffirmed by the RA government during the tenure of Nikol Pashinyan»:

168.amthe wrote that Pashinyan approved a plan for the development of the armed forces without reading and understanding.

In other words, even if there was a problem in the warehouse, it is in the area of ​​responsibility of the head of the country and the supreme commander, also: “On Defense” RA law according to

In this context, it should be noted that military-technical in criminal cases Pashinyan has not yet proven his political justice, if not to say that some accusations they have disappeared. 

For example, in 2022 On October 24, Nikol Pashinyan announced during his visit to the Anti-Corruption Committee: “Plates were removed from rockets with terrible names, in which there is gold.”

Like earlier statement Pashinyan had done in 2021. At the end of May, during the meeting held at the pre-election headquarters of the “Civil Agreement” party of Ajapnyak administrative district, “There are people in Armenia, an officer, who removes the plate from the S-300 to sell the gold inside for 30-40 thousand drams.

Let’s leave aside the fact that Pashinyan knew this before the war and may not have done anything technically, moreover, our studies showed that there was an accused official, and who he is, the prosecutor’s office kept secret, and they could not find out the identity of the thief, so the article was suspended in this regard. This is also for the information of Andranik Kocharyan.

Let’s return to the main topic of the article and move to 2022 September battles during which, by the way, Suren Papikyan was the Minister of Defense of Armenia during the operations, the Armenian side lost more than 220 victims, according to various reports, we lost 50 positions, the Azerbaijani armed forces, according to official data, In Jermuk area crashed into the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia with a front 8.5 km wide and: up to 7.5 km deep, as of that day, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces were 4.5 km away from the Jermuk gates.

And today, when Suren Papikyan considers the statements of the opponents to be belligerent, did he consider the steps and statements of Baku prior to the September battles to be such, and they were? Moreover, on the very day of the September battles, Pashinyan admitted the following.

“Perhaps it will seem strange to many that Azerbaijan thus expresses its dissatisfaction with the results of the 44-day war. I realize that I am saying something very strange now. Now I can’t say many details…”

Shortly after this, Nikol Pashinyan recognized Artsakh as a part of Azerbaijan in Prague, well, then already in September 2023, Artsakh was depopulated. And the RA authorities said that the RA Armed Forces cannot help the Armed Forces to avoid a new war, to avoid getting involved in another war, and there is still a question: what was written in the RA Armed Forces deployment plan? In this case, the remarkable thing is that first there is a promise to Azerbaijan, and then it is already announced that war will not be allowed. Isn’t it clear that if you promised or said something, if you don’t do it, they will get it by force? We can do it in the 44-day war such details to find though of course it would start one day.

Today, Baku demands to remove the Declaration of Independence from the current RA constitution, which allegedly contains a territorial claim to Azerbaijan, and Nikol Pashinyan considers it conflicting. But at the same time, the constitution of Azerbaijan will continue to operate, which, according to Pashinyan himself, presents territorial claims In relation to RA, de jure Baku demands About 60 percent of the RA territory. In other words, there is both a territorial claim and a reason for the activation of the conflict, and what is Pashinyan going to do, if in practice Aliyev decides to implement the constitution of his country, hand it over peacefully or by war? It’s a logical question, isn’t it? The RA citizen might want to know the answer to this question clearly and objectively. We repeat: the constitution of conflict-ridden Azerbaijan will not be changed.

Why does Pashinyan not consider this as war-mongering, but he is looking for a war-starter in the words of the opposition, while forgetting that when the opposition circles in the context of the 44-day period, his own pre-war steps and statements, including in the context of the July battles, considered the war “brought on”, CP members considered it unfair and even “reported” against RA, although they said on different occasions that Baku had the UN resolutions, which they were guided by in September 2020.

Let us add that Pashinyan confessed In connection with the Azerbaijani invasions in May 2021, that The army was given a political order not to fight, because in a month there were extraordinary NA elections, and they promised peace, which collapsed in a few months, in 2021. with the November battles. 

Continuing the topic, let’s add that in February of the current year 168.amthe had written About Baku’s fears regarding the outcome of the Armenian National Assembly elections, in particular, that Aliyev’s close circle believes that with Pashinyan’s government, yes, the peace agenda is established but not irreversible.

“Because political forces may come and stop these processes, because they see it differently. If the current process drags on for years, the peace agenda will be transformed, for better or for worse, that is another matter. But it is clear that it will be necessary to develop new mechanisms, especially if the referendum fails.” Azeri political scientist Farhad Mammadov also announced in RA.

And on March 20, during the live broadcast on Facebook, Pashinyan for the first time this is the idea to change the negotiated document, and this is exactly what he considers warlike.

“Even if we go with the most optimistic forecast, to reopen the established peace, means to create an opportunity to transform all the content that we finally fixed as a result of the negotiation process. On a theoretical level, we can consider that this content can become better, but on the same theoretical level, this content can become worse. But it is much more likely that this content can completely collapse. As this simple, most neutral statistical enumeration shows, it is two against one. There is one chance that the content can get better, and there are two chances that the content can get worse. In either case, the logic of development leads to war. We must record this very clearly,” Pashinyan stated.

Of course, this also speaks of the fact that for Pashinyan it is not peace that is important, but that it should be in his hands.

Referring to the thesis of the need for guarantors by the opposition, Pashinyan noted that this opens the door to bring peacekeepers into our region and our country.

Of course, this is, to put it mildly, ridiculous, not only because the US presence of one or another level in RA territory and region is planned by TRIPP, but also because it was Pashinyan who invited RA peacekeepers and Russian border guards to the region, then stationed them in some places, and after some time refused their service. Not to mention EU observers yet.

Facts are a powerful thing. So, Pashinyan will do well to present his peace agenda without blackmail and the threat of war, which has failed once. And the state should always have preparations and counter-scenarios for the war scenario in its vault.

—