“We Do Not Know What Will Happen Tomorrow”: A Dispatch from the Armenia-Iran

The Vayk Food Court, located on the M2 Armenian Interstate, is a favorite haunt for those passing through. Since Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh no longer use this route, the food court is usually half or completely empty at lunchtime. On Monday afternoon, it was crowded again. The Karabakh Armenians have been replaced by Iranians. Some are buying pizza inside; others are smoking in front of the food court. One of them, in a black T-shirt, rubs his shoulders, then points his index finger at my winter coat and asks where I can buy one (the Armenian mountains are still covered in snow!). What else can you think of these days when meeting Iranians in another country? They are probably fleeing the “black rain.” But no, they all flew from Dubai to Yerevan and are heading to Iran via Armenia overland. It seemed to me that they were returning to their homeland out of patriotic motives, because I met such Iranians on the Armenia–Iran border during the 12-day war. “I am going to Iran. My family is there,” says one of them, and lists them one by one. “My father, mother, sister, grandmother, grandfather, and brother are there. I was in the cosmetics business, but now, there is a war, I am going to join my family. What we will do next, I have no idea,” he says.

These Iranians standing in front of the food court are all young people, and they talk to me in a somewhat cheerful tone, but it feels like there is something hidden under their laughter. Another one is jumping on the spot like a football player in the cold weather before a match, and says that he flew to Armenia via Türkiye, and that his friend bought a ticket for him online. “How much was it? Twenty-two… Türk liras…” He takes out his smartphone and starts calculating. “Five hundred U.S. dollars. Airlines are raising prices every day,” he says. This young man, like his friends, is also going to Iran. When asked, “How long do you think the war will last?,” he replies, “I don’t know.”

In Kapan, an anti-Israeli and anti-American poster was pasted on the gates of the Iranian consulate, the flag was lowered, and children’s toys and flowers were placed on a wall. A large portrait of Ayatollah Khamenei bears the inscription, “Our heartfelt condolences on the deaths of many innocent citizens and high-ranking officials in Iran.” Another poster reads, “He has targeted children… But what’s their sin?”

Negative impact on Armenia’s economy

Just a month ago, numerous Iranian tankers and trucks drove nonstop along this highway. It’s safe to say that, on the M2 highway in the Syunik region, trucks with Iranian license plates outnumbered Armenian ones, but these days, their numbers have significantly decreased, and it’s even rare to see them. Trucks with Armenian and Georgian license plates heading toward Yerevan were more common. Also, in early February, hundreds of Iranian trucks were parked along the airport in Kapan, the regional center of Syunik; today, there were not so many. It seems that the pace of construction work in Syunik has also slowed down with the involvement of Iranian companies.

In 2023, the Armenian government has awarded a $215 million contract to a consortium of two Iranian companies to upgrade a 32-kilometer section of the main highway connecting Armenia to Iran through its endangered Syunik region. There were hardly any construction workers seen along the construction site today, perhaps because of weather conditions, perhaps the war, or both. An Armenian businessman has been waiting at the Agarak/Norduz checkpoint for three days. “Since this war started, I haven’t been able to contact my Iranian partners. They don’t have internet. He told me through an intermediary to pick up the goods here, but it hasn’t arrived yet, and I can’t find out any information, so I’m waiting,” he says.

A resident of Agarak says that they go to Iran for shopping mainly, but it is not possible now. “Trucks pass, but they do not let us through. Ordinary people go there and buy stuff for their home and kitchen, things like washing powder, household chemicals, cooking oil, sugar, etc. It is cheap there. Each person can bring 10kg of cargo and 10 liters of gasoline, no more,” he says, expressing hope that everything will end well and they will continue to shop in Iran as before.

What about TRIPP?

Last year, after the US Ambassador to Armenia, Kristina Kvien’s announcement, the hope that TRIPP project will finally become a reality has further strengthened among people in Armenia. “Another implementation achievement is the recent US announcement of $145 million in new assistance funding for Armenia. The bulk of these funds will go toward advancing the TRIPP project and enhancing border security and management”, she stated.

In February, when the U.S. Vice President Vance visited Armenia, the talk about TRIPP increased even more, and many in Armenia believed that infrastructure construction would soon begin along the Araks River, which separates Armenia and Iran. Amid the ongoing war in Iran, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on March 12 that TRIPP is not a priority, at least today.

“It is obvious that TRIPP is not a priority for the United States administration at the moment. You see what is happening and what they are up to now. Unfortunately, there is a high probability that the process will be affected in terms of time because the government is focused on that issue, but if it turns out that it will not be affected, then it is even better,” Pashinyan said. The Armenian Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Armenia announced late last year that work on the implementation of TRIPP will begin by the summer of 2026. However, at least for now, with the breakout of the war in Iran, the topic of TRIPP project was washed away from the agenda.

Situation at the checkpoint

The Armenia–Iran border checkpoint at Agarak/Norduz in Syunik Province: on Wednesday morning, nothing unusual seems to be happening. Armenian taxi drivers here, some of whom happen to speak good Persian, are waiting for their potential clients. A young Iranian man enters Armenia, holding a plastic bag of onions and eggs, followed by trucks with Iranian license plates, leaving noise and blue smoke in the distance. Few Iranians are entering the Armenian territory, and almost no one is open to talk (let alone take pictures). It is not clear whether the checkpoint is open or closed. An Armenian border guard says he “cannot answer the journalists’ questions regarding this matter”. In any case, fuel and other trucks are moving in and out. Locals in Agarak say that sometimes, Armenians are able to go to Iran and trade, and sometimes they are prohibited. “Today, for example, it was closed; we do not know what will happen tomorrow, everything depends on the situation in Iran,” says an Agarak resident.

An Iranian family that just entered Armenia is saying that people are unable to leave Iran, mainly because of money. “The first day was terrible, the very first day when they started bombing, people started to leave in panic. But it’s not like it’s calm now; moreover, the war has spread beyond Tehran to other cities. People prefer to stay at home in shelters for safety. Medicine, food, nothing can be bought,” says an Iranian woman. “We heard loud explosions, there were glass crumbs scattered on the street, we were very scared, we didn’t attend school,” says this woman’s daughter, with a pink school bag on her back. This family loads their suitcases into the trunk of a taxi and heads to Zvartnots Airport to fly to a third country, they don’t want to name.

Contributed by Marut Vanyan

—