The factor of Ali Larijani. Will Iran go for total escalation or will it retreat?

The Middle East crisis has entered a new and unpredictable phase of tension. Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz’s sensational statement that Ali Larijani, the former secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and special adviser to the country’s spiritual leader, was killed as a result of the latest attacks by TSAKHAL, shocked the international community.

While Tehran still does not officially confirm this news, and possible statements published on behalf of Larijani appear on social networks, the information in the press and on the Internet is very different.

The image of Ali Larijani is not just that of a public official. he is one of the most influential and experienced figures of Iran’s political elite, who has been at the center of the country’s strategic decision-making for decades. The possible loss of a figure of such a level can be considered as the culmination of the “beheading strategy” implemented by Israel. If the information is confirmed, this will be the next heaviest blow to Tehran after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and Ali Khamenei, which will force Tehran to either continue the war or retreat.

The importance of this event for the course of the war is difficult to overestimate. First of all, it is psychological pressure on the people of Iran, the IRGC and Iran’s allies.  The conflict, which was originally intended as a series of limited strikes, is now turning into an ontological struggle, where the parties have crossed all the “red lines”. The Larijani factor can become the spark that will determine whether the region will go towards total escalation or whether one of the parties, in this case Iran, will back down.

Russian orientalist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky 168.amtold that if the rumors are confirmed, it will be a great loss for Iran during the war, where even during the lifetime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani had an exceptional role and weight in making decisions, maintaining ties between the branches of power and ensuring stability.

If that news is confirmed, according to his qualification, then Iran will have to overcome it, because in this case it is not only about the official, but personal qualities and a clear role due to it.

“Ali Larijani’s statements are more weighty than the president’s statements, usually sharper, clearer, expressing the true sentiments of the Iranian state. Therefore, taking all this into account, this can be a difficult destination.

On the other hand, we see that Iran was ready for any scenario from the beginning of this war. Thanks to that, the war did not go as planned, especially by the USA, and it is not in the interests of the prolongation of the war to this extent. If Israel is interested in longer scenarios, the same cannot be said about the USA,” the analyst explained.

Considering all this and Iran’s calculations, in his opinion, it is not possible to say unequivocally that Iran will not overcome such a loss.

“The question is that Iran had foreseen such a process, because it became clear even after the 12-day war that the goal of the US-Israel alliance is to break Iran’s resistance by beheading the leadership of Iran. Therefore, a system was developed so that Iran could maintain the stable operation of the system with quick appointments and replacements of officials,” Raevsky said.

According to him, however, such an event, if confirmed, will perhaps become a watershed and a great indicator of what kind of resistance Iran is ready for.

He believes that this conflict no longer has a negotiated solution, because the USA and Israel want to defeat, not to negotiate and reach compromise solutions.

“If the situation turns in Iran’s favor, in that case Iran will set preconditions. In general, these are the moods at present. Judging by the publications of the international press, the international mediation efforts do not give serious results either,” Raevsky noted.

As for the South Caucasus, he believes that as long as Iran resists effectively, many countries maintain neutrality, even having good relations with the USA and Israel. “I think that if the situation turns in favor of the USA, Israel, Turkey and Azerbaijan will also change their current position towards Iran, strengthening even more in the neighboring zones. As long as Iran resists, it has a balancing and stabilizing role, as well as curbing a number of ambitions,” he noted.

Let’s remind that Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, recently commented on the actions of US President Donald Trump on the X social network.

“Trump says he wants a quick victory. Although starting a war is easy, it cannot be won with a few tweets. We will not back down until we make you regret this serious miscalculation,” Larijani wrote.

In all his speeches, the statement that Iran will not retreat runs like a red thread. In his statements, he was quite harsh about the so-called “Zangezur Corridor” project and TRIPP, noting that Iran will not accept a change of the Armenian-Iranian border, geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus. Let us emphasize once again that Iran has not officially confirmed the news of Larijani’s murder.

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