Tbilisi: In five months, 40 practice alerts near the Georgian border and on occupied territories. What is Russia getting ready for?

Rezonansi, Georgia
June 2 2017
 In five months, 40 practice alerts near the Georgian border and on
occupied territories. What is Russia getting ready for?
 by Tiko Osmanova
[Armenian News note: the below is translated from Georgian]
A demonstration of force or preparation for combat activities - to
check combat readiness, Russia has issued about 40 practice alerts in
the Southern Military District over the past five months. What might
these activities by our northern neighbour imply? Pundits have come up
with several versions about this issue. However, at this stage, they
believe there is no likelihood of a military conflict erupting.
Alert sounded near Georgian border
Yesterday [1 June], the latest alert of the kind was sounded near the
Georgian border and in [Russian-] occupied [Georgia's breakaway]
Tskhinvali [region]. According to the Russian mass media, on the order
of Southern Military District Commander Gen Col Aleksandr Dvornikov,
one part of the district's military detachments was brought to full
readiness to check their combat readiness.
At 4 o'clock in the morning, the alert was sounded in the military
units mobilised in Chechnya, Dagestan, Krasnodar Territory and
Tskhinvali region, as well. A total of 6,500 military men and 1,500
pieces of military hardware participated in the military inspection.
What might these activities by our northern neighbor imply? Pundits
have come up with several versions regarding this issue. However, at
this stage, they estimate there is no likelihood of a military
conflict erupting.
Russia's demonstration of force
According to expert in military issues Mamuka Areshidze, the northern
neighbour's activeness in this direction is merely a demonstration of
force. The more active Nato initiatives become in the South Caucasus,
including Georgia, the more Russia is trying to show its military
potential.
"This does not imply anything but a demonstration of force, as the
geopolitical situation unfolding [in the region] does not suggest any
reason for Russia's possible aggression. I see no need for Russia to
begin combat activities anywhere, except Syria, of course.
All military formations of the Southern Military District, which are
located in the all the regions of the North Caucasus, including
Krasnodar and Stavropol territories and [Georgia's breakaway] Abkhazia
and South Ossetia [Tskhinvali region], are actively engaged in the
inspection.
"The more active Nato initiatives are in the South Caucasus, including
Georgia, the more Russia is trying to show its military potential,"
Areshidze told Rezonansi.
He also said that the only region in the Caucasus where there is high
likelihood that a military conflict will erupt is [Azerbaijan's
breakaway Nagornyy] Karabakh.
"Combat operations are already under way in Syria, which Russia is
actively engaged in, similar to Turkey and the United States. For all
major players, the range of activities is quite limited there. If any
of them disrupts the balance, the danger of a third world war will
arise. This does not play into the hands of any of the sides.
"At present, the only danger posed is the renewal of the Karabakh
conflict. This is more or less likely.
Georgia's, Azerbaijan's international standing "different"
"Georgia's and Azerbaijan's standing in the international arena is
different. Relations between Georgia and Nato have not gone beyond
declarations notwithstanding the fact that the Nato Parliamentary
Assembly was held here and messages of rapprochement were sent.
However, this does not imply Georgia isjoining Nato. Neither does this
imply that the situation regarding this issue will change in the near
future. Russia has already become used to this, and does not see any
particular danger in it.
"Regarding Azerbaijan, official Baku has joined an extremely important
international coalition, which is being formed around Saudi Arabia and
is also called the Arab Nato. This fact is a serious message for
Russia. This is an anti-Iranian coalition, which implies the
redistribution of forces in the Middle East region.
"If Azerbaijan displays new military aggression in the context of the
Karabakh conflict, it is not ruled out that Russia will not react the
same way as it did last summer. There is not a high likelihood, but it
still is [possible]," Areshidze said.
Several reasons for demonstrating force
According to Tbilisi University Professor Korneli Kakachia, Russia's
demonstration of force is related to several factors.
"Given the reforms recently implemented in the defence and security
spheres of Russia, this activeness should not be surprising. Russia's
defence policy has become more aggressive. Apart from this, Russia is
engaged in conflicts with its neighbours and this demonstration of
force should not be surprising. This is also aimed at checking the
effectiveness of the amount of money spent on these reforms.
"No-one is able to precisely say where Russia is going to use this
force in practice. However, it is a fact that this is mainly targeted
at post-Soviet countries. The thing is that Russian authorities still
consider them as the sphere of their influence, including our region
and Karabakh.
"Russia voiced the desire to have a military presence in Karabakh.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are certainly opposed to this. However, it is
not ruled out that [Russia] will take steps in this direction.
"Apart from Karabakh, [Russia] might use force in Ukraine. However,
what matters most is that all this might be meant for domestic
consumption. In 2018, Russia is holding a [parliamentary] election.
Therefore, the authorities need to somehow show society how strong
Russia is and how [successfully] it is regaining its special [place]
in world politics," Kakachia told Rezonansi.