Armenia: Karabakh Question Clouds Eurasian Union Accession

ARMENIA: KARABAKH QUESTION CLOUDS EURASIAN UNION ACCESSION

EurasiaNet.org
Oct 10 2014

October 10, 2014 – 2:12pm, by Marianna Grigoryan

Armenia has finalized its accession to the Russia-led Eurasian
Economic Union, an intended regional counterweight to the European
Union. But while Armenian and Russian officials focus on future
prosperity, some Armenian observers believe membership in the bloc
could exacerbate Armenia’s security challenges.

During an October 10 meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council,
held in Minsk, Belarus, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan confirmed
that Armenia would be formally admitted to the Eurasian Economic Union
(EEU) when it launches on January 1, 2015. The Armenian government
approved the draft text of the accession agreement in early October,
Armenian media reported. The EEU will be an outgrowth of the existing
customs union among Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Armenian political analysts greeted the accession announcement with
mixed feelings, in part because the final text of the pact has not
been subjected to public scrutiny. There is particular concern about
the pact’s ramifications for Armenia’s relationship with the Nagorno
Karabakh territory, an enclave inhabited by ethnic Armenians who
aspire to gain independence from Azerbaijan.

A draft released earlier this year implied that a customs post would
be established between Armenia and Karabakh. Local economists say that
such an economic barrier would paralyze Karabakh’s economy since the
territory depends on Armenia as its primary market for its limited
selection of exports.

Beyond the potential economic ramifications, many Armenians would see
the establishment of a customs regime as tantamount to the cutting of
cultural ties with Karabakh, an act that could leave the territory –
and, consequently, Armenia itself – vulnerable to possible Azerbaijani
aggression.

“Currently, we have no expectations with regard to security. We see
only threats,” commented Aghasi Yenokian, director of the Armenian
Center for Political and International Studies, a Yerevan-based
think-tank.

Over the past year, Armenian officials have said repeatedly that
Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union takes into account
security guarantees for both Armenia and Karabakh, but no proof of
this has been offered.

As a result, uncertainty continues to swirl around the future of the
Armenia-Karabakh trade relationship. Two of the EEU’s three members,
Belarus and Kazakhstan, are on record as categorically opposed to
allowing Armenia to share the bloc’s trade advantages with Karabakh,
which none of the members recognize as a country independent from
Azerbaijan.

In Minsk, however, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev stated
that a “compromise” had been reached “on a delicate question within the
borders by which Armenia will be joined to our union,” the ITAR-TASS
news agency reported.

Details were not immediately available.

Members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia contacted by
EurasiaNet.org declined to comment on the challenges that EEU
membership could pose for Armenia’s ties with Karabakh.

“There is a very complicated period awaiting us, taking into account
the somewhat unfriendly attitude of the EEU to Armenia, particularly
on the part of Nazarbayev and [Belarusian President Alexander ]
Lukashenko,” commented Styopa Safarian, director of the Armenian
Institute of International and Security Affairs.

President Sargsyan, a native of Karabakh, does not, however, appear to
share such worries. Congratulating Russian President Vladimir Putin
on his October-7 birthday, Sargsyan stated that Putin’s “consistent
efforts” for a peaceful resolution of the 26-year Karabakh conflict
with Azerbaijan, and his support for Armenia’s EEU membership “deserve
the deepest appreciation.”

Opposition parties have also adopted conciliatory stances toward
Russia, observers note. This fact leaves some analysts glum; to them,
it means the political class is unlikely to push hard to promote
Armenia’s interests within the EEU.

“The opposition and the authorities do their best not to make the
Kremlin angry,” said Styopa Safarian, the analyst and former member
of the opposition Heritage Party. “This situation is not encouraging
at all.”

Editor’s note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in
Yerevan and editor of MediaLab.am.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress