THE MAIN AIM OF AZERBAIJAN IS THE COMPLETE ISOLATION OF ARMENIA FROM THE REGIONAL PROJECTS
PanARMENIAN.Net
31.05.2008 GMT+04:00
USA’s urge to force out Russia from the Caucasus as soon as possible
and to gain the complete control over the Caspian and Central Asian
energy resources first of all strikes Armenia.
Azerbaijan does its best to isolate Armenia from all the regional
transport projects. The GUAM Summit held in Baku, during which once
again the issue of new transport corridor constructions was raised,
is the evidence of the above mentioned. This time the topic of the
discussion mostly was the rail road bridging the Black Sea with
South Korea.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The initiator of this project is the Ukraine,
which does not exclude the possibility of Turkey, Azerbaijan and
Georgia joining the project.
According to the words of the Ukraine Ambassador to Azerbaijan Boris
Klimchuk, in the future the route may be connected to the Great Silk
Road and reach South Korea.
It must be said, that Baku’s efforts for now are blessed with
some success, which is explained by the domination of political
importance of all these projects. In all these projects the economics
is definitely on secondary importance. And since Armenia in the
political aspect is of no interest to the other parties, naturally
the preference is given to Georgia and Azerbaijan. There is another no
less important factor of Turkey, which in its striving to become the
regional power-holder starts dictating its rules, which comply with
the rules of the USA. In this context particularly the visit of the
Turkish Prime-Minister Recep Erdoghan to the autonomous Republic of
Nakhichevan scheduled in the beginning of June should be viewed. The
Turkish Daily News informs that during his visit the Turkish Prime
will meet the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. During the meeting
the projects of socio-economic development of the region, such as the
construction of the railroad Kars-Nakhichevan and the gas pipeline
Erzrum-Nakhichevan, are going to be discussed,
With its participation in the railroad construction
Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku, which is already referred to as the
Baku-Ankara road, Georgia also has a rather significant asset in
Armenia’s isolation. Voluntarily or not Armenia becomes the hostage
of its own policy, which is basically oriented towards Russia, as a
guarantor of security in case of the renewal of military actions in the
Nagorno-Karabakh or, God forbid, the tension on the Armenian-Turkish
border.
However, the latter is not very likely to happen, yet, excluding such
a possibility would also be wrong.
USA’s urge to force out Russia from the Caucasus as soon as possible
and to gain the complete control over the Caspian and Central Asian
energy resources first of all strikes Armenia. The truth is though,
that even if Yerevan changes its priorities in the foreign policy of
the country, there are no guarantees that the USA will change the
routes of the pipelines or the railroads. The only thing that can
change the route of the pipelines is the stirring up of the militants
of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on the way of oil transportation.
It should be reminded that even in the Russian projects "South Stream"
and "North-South" Armenia has no expectations either. By the way,
the refusal of the US government to support financial assistance to
Kars-Baku railroad is caused not by the sympathy towards Armenia,
but simple pragmatism. One thing is to put big money in oil pipeline,
another thing is to put big money in a rather problematic railroad,
whose payback, regardless Baku’s assertions, is rather dubious.
Not everything is all right with the widely publicized project of
Nabucco. Nabucco gas pipeline International announced about the
extension of more than 1.5 times construction costs of the gas
pipeline reaching 7.9 milliard Euros. In the information on the
official web site of the project, it was mentioned that the costs
of the project of Nabucco have grown on the background of the growth
of the prices of oil and the demand on steel. The consortium of the
project reassessed the major expenses on the bases of the assessments
of the supply and the delivery service for the construction of the
gas pipeline. According to the new evaluation, the project needs 2
million tones of steel pipes and more than 30 compressor units. The
Nabucco gas pipeline will provide gas from Azerbaijan and Central Asia
to the countries of the European Union. From Central Asia to Nabucco
the gas may be delivered by planned Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, which
will go under the Caspian. The pipeline, with an initial capacity
of about 8 milliard cubic meter per year, is planned to be ready by
2012. The first gas supplies must start in 2013, if it finished by
then. The growth of the oil prices will continue, dollar still drops,
and in the present conditions of the world economics, the project may
simply be postponed for an uncertain period. The construction of the
oil pipeline Baku-Ceyhan forewent 10-year negotiations, and without
Heydar Aliyev it would not be build at all. The current President
of Azerbaijan, unfortunately, or fortunately, has not inherited the
connections and the foresight of his father.