In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan the guest citysome analyst Hakob Badalyan is.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• There were many things in this election process that had not happened before, including, on the night of the election, during the process of counting the votes, it was announced that the KP had won (Nikol Pashinyan announced at midnight from the KP office that they had won, when only 10 percent of the votes had been counted, ed.). Foreign countries, especially Turkey, where there is a sense of statism, should have followed the formality and not congratulated Ruben Rubinyan for something that does not exist. Ruben Rubinyan is only a candidate for the Speaker of the National Assembly, not the President. We can say that his candidacy is at least acceptable. 

To remind, Ruben Rubinyan was warmly congratulated by his colleague in the bilateral commission, special envoy of Turkey, Serdar Kılıç, one or two hours after announcing Ruben Rubinyan as a candidate for the president of the next convocation of the National Assembly.

Also, let’s remind, years ago, during the election of Ruben Rubinyan as the vice president of the National Assembly, the story of his “scientific studies” in Istanbul became the subject of wide discussion. At that time, Rubinyan admitted that he had been conducting studies in Turkey for several months within the framework of the Hrant Dink Foundation program. Later, information was published in the media that he first studied at YSU, then in London and Poland, and before the 2018 color revolution, in 2017-2018, he did some research at the “Istanbul Politics Center” attached to Sabanj University within the framework of the “Exchange of experience between Armenia and Turkey” project of the “Hrant Dink” Foundation.

The topic of his studies is noteworthy: the influence of non-governmental organizations on the processes of democratization in Turkey. According to media publications, the university itself is even more remarkable. Its founder is Turkish businessman, nationalist Haji Omer, who in 1934 On the advice of Kemal Ataturk, he chose the surname Sabanji and with the help of the same Ataturk seized the personal and church property of the Armenians of Adana, with a total value of 100 billion dollars.

The university was founded by Sabanji’s children, and its main purpose was propaganda work with foreign students to convert them into agents of Turkish influence. According to the mass media, there are many employees of the special services of Turkey among the professors of the university.

• The election of Ruben Rubinyan as the Speaker of the National Assembly is largely due to the fact that he is related to the process called the Armenian-Turkish settlement. This choice is essentially determined by the Turkey factor:

• Alen Simonyan, known for his anti-Russian statements, we saw that he began to show a warm attitude towards Valentina Matvienko, the speaker of the Upper Chamber of the State Duma of the Russian Federation. I think Alen Simonyan did not justify himself during the Armenian-Azerbaijani parliamentary track, although he was very enthusiastic about that topic. We cannot rule out that Simonyan himself, realizing that he cannot meet the expectations in the Azerbaijani and Turkish tracks, specially placed himself in the Russian line.

• The opposition never intended to destabilize the situation on any occasion. But the situation could change during the counting of votes, and this worried the centers that were not interested in qualitative change in Armenia. Nikol Pashinyan himself should have been interested in that change, thus freeing himself and Armenia from the trap, but he did not do it.

• Now Russia simply does not have the desire and time for Nikol Pashinyan. We see that the situation on the Ukrainian front is tense, and I don’t think that Armenia’s problems, at least as far as Putin is concerned, are essential for Russia, even if there was an agreement regarding the Pashinyan-Putin meeting. As for the economic sanctions imposed by Russia on Armenia, I claim that it worked in Pashinyan’s favor, and the part of his electorate that would not even go to the elections, mobilized around him, within the logic of “we will not exchange strawberries for our sovereignty”. I think this contributed to the fact that, taking into account “Prosperous Armenia” processes related to the party, Pashinyan will collect 3/5. I don’t think they understood this in Russia, but I can’t say what is their priority. But I say again: I don’t have the impression that Russia has set itself the task of replacing Pashinyan. If we thought otherwise, then we are naive. Otherwise, he would not help, would not assist Nikol Pashinyan to de facto mislead the Armenian people. Why was Russia’s friends announced by Putin, which allowed Nikol Pashinyan to intensify his anti-propaganda against the opposition, calling them pro-Russian forces? What did it give the Armenian people?:

• Russia’s future policy towards Armenia will be determined by the developments on the Ukrainian front. The priority for them now is to be able to maneuver in the issue of Armenia. In that matter, Pashinyan gives them that opportunity, even with his voiced anti-Russian attitude. 

• I think Pashinyan is not particularly concerned that Putin did not congratulate him. But one of the first congratulated Kazakhstan, which is a Russian, Turkish and British communication destination in the Eurasian zone. From this point of view, the situation is complicated, and I think that not congratulating Putin has nothing to do with real politics:

• It is not necessary to overestimate the possibility of Pashinyan to deceive any country. If there is anyone who is deceived, it is the Armenian society. The European market cannot replace the Russian market. The Armenian economy is being sacrificed. Armenia’s economy is turning into a service economy within the framework of the Middle Corridor. And putting one of the most important branches of the economy – agriculture – under attack for political calculations is an attack on the economy, therefore, it is against the sovereignty of Armenia.:

• The European Union does not need anything else from Armenia than to meet the demands of Azerbaijan as quickly as possible, while building the ideas related to the same Middle Corridor. The current government sacrifices Armenia’s economy to solve its political problems. 

• It is important when the president announces that Russia wants to take away Armenia’s sovereignty, and in this matter Armenia relies on the support of the European Union. Here it is difficult for the European Union to refuse, and somewhere it finds itself under its own responsibility. And this is beneficial for Russia:

• When listing the beneficiaries of destabilizing our region, one should not forget about Israel. 

• Europe is highly dependent on Turkey, and there is nothing new here. It is noteworthy that before the NATO summit to be started in Istanbul, Trump also paid homage to Turkey and Erdogan. The nature of US-Israel relations is also changing, and this too will be a difficult process.

• Today’s processes have the logic that the scales are leaning towards Turkey, and from a tactical point of view, of course, today Turkey’s influence in Armenia is greater than Russia’s. Unfortunately, we are still waiting for who will come and rule us. Unfortunately, Armenia as a state has practically no content today. That “peace” is not a content, and a state without content generally cannot make a choice whether it goes to Russia, Turkey or Azerbaijan. They make choices against themselves, competing with each other. And now Nikol Pashinyan has found himself in a situation where he indulged himself:

• The problem is that the Armenian government formulates its presence in any process at the level of propaganda. Apart from propaganda, there is no politics, and this aggravates our situation.

• When any investor sees that NSS employees at the level of the prime minister are empowered to leak information, it is unlikely that Armenia will be an attractive country for investments. 

• Nikol Pashinyan is moving towards classical authoritarianism. And it will succeed when the authoritarianism of the government is built with the pyramid of power. But this cannot last long:

• Our society is under a very strong information attack, and in that sense, resistance has been overcome. This can lead to a very dangerous situation.

• In Baku, Ursula von der Leyen will probably try to reduce Baku’s demands towards Armenia, so that Yerevan meets them as quickly as possible, so that Europe, in turn, gets its share of the Caucasus. And if it doesn’t work, and Aliyev doesn’t give in, and he probably won’t, already in Armenia he will try to convince Pashinyan to accept Azerbaijan’s demands, promising more and more lavish pies.:

• Macron and Ursula von der Leyen do not quite flow in the same stream. It is possible that before the latter’s visits, France with that document, in which there was a statement about Artsakh, is simply trying to complicate the negotiation environment for him. I do not rule out that in this situation, Macron and Aliyev can act within the framework of the same logic. In addition, it is not the first time that the Executive and the Parliament may have different positions in France. It is not surprising that there may be such a resolution in the Parliament, and then the government will use it for its own interests. But this is more of an opportunity for Aliyev than a problem. 

• A card is being played that a number of regional actors are sensitive to. The recognition of the Armenian Genocide will give Netanyahu an opportunity to open the field. Apart from Turkey, Iran, Russia and Europe will be sensitive to this issue. Whether the Knesset will accept it or not depends on what issues Netanyahu’s bloody hand will resolve by raising the issue. In addition, it is important who knows:

• The only intrigue in the Constitutional Court is the return of PAP votes. The CC will not cancel the election results, and depending on the positions in the external environment, the problem is only the decision related to the votes of “Prosperous Armenia”. But I want to think that regardless of the decision of the CC, in the long term our political forces know what to do. It is not worth talking about the defeat of the opposition. Yes, the opposition did not win, but it did not lose, but it managed to do a lot. The leading forces of the opposition have managed to do a lot in recent months, now we need to develop the result, continue talking to the public.

• Mandates are a tool that should not be abandoned. During the Parliament of the previous convocation, I was also against the opposition giving up the mandates. But in the case of taking the mandates, one should not allow the process to move into the opposition-government conflict field, one should form one’s own agenda, and use the mandates to serve it. There is a possibility of that. Politics should not be dictated by Facebook statuses and likes. And in this regard, Samvel Karapetyan’s last statement was important:

Details in the video.

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