Before and after the June 7 elections in Armenia, the entire CP elite talked about a “hybrid war against Armenia from the North”, mostly accusing the Armenian opposition of collaborating with Russia against Armenia.

This conversation continues even after the June 7 elections, although Nikol Pashinyan declares that he has friendly relations with the Russian president, has met with him many times and had phone conversations. And recently he announced that on August 15 he will participate in the session of the EAEU intergovernmental council. However, he does not say why, for example, he does not ask the Russian President why he is “waging a hybrid war against Armenia”.

After the elections in Armenia, what will be the direction of the foreign political vector of Armenia, is it possible that Russia will be pushed out of the region in general?

Head of YSU Political Institutes and Processes Chair, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Garik Keryan speaking about this issue, he said: he sees such a tendency, but he cannot say that this tendency has gained such dominance that it will be so.

“What is related to Armenia and the South Caucasus depends on the end of the Iranian and Ukrainian wars.

Second, the end of these two wars will lead to the formation of a new world order, in which the United States, China, and Russia will be key actors, of course, in different positions: Russia with a weaker role, the United States and China with a greater role. I have no doubt that such a three-centered world order will bring new agreements in terms of the division of spheres of influence and interests.

The new border division of interests and spheres of influence will also bring the answer to the question of which sphere of influence the South Caucasian countries remain in.” 168.am-Garik Keryan said in a conversation with

According to the political scientist, if Armenia is left out of the zone of Russian influence, then the Russian presence here will be reduced to a minimum. If the division of the world turned out in such a way that only Armenia remained in the zone of Russian influence, then Armenia’s clear participation in Eurasian Russia-centric structures, especially EAEU and CSTO, will be restored.

“We will not have a clear answer to this question until, as I already said, until those two wars are over, the formation of a new world order depends on the results of those wars. Do we know how the Ukrainian crisis will end? For example, we also don’t know the role of Iran in the region, now there are many experts who say that Iran is becoming the number one superpower in the Middle East, based on the fact that it will dominate all its neighbors if the United States fulfills its commitment and leaves. After this, can Turkey, which is the strongest country in the southern wing of NATO, dare to act like Iran? Maybe 1 year is still necessary for us to see the end of the Iranian and Ukrainian crises,” emphasized our interlocutor.

Garik Keryan also does not rule out the influence of the EU in the region in cooperation with the United States, nor is it ruled out that in a certain geopolitical situation Turkey, as a NATO ally, can gain supremacy in the South Caucasus.

“Of course, a question may arise, what will happen to the EU, Brazil, India, and the others? These will also maintain their role, but not on the front line, as, for example, the United States and China are, but in the tripartite system there will be sub-systems, allies, or regional independent or independent units,” emphasized Garik Keryan.

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