On April 23 finished submission of registration documents of parties and alliances of parties to the Central Electoral Commission of Armenia to participate in the June 7 parliamentary elections. All necessary documents presented two alliances and 17 parties.

As the election day approaches, the political situation in Armenia is characterized by a significant intensification of the confrontation between the ruling “Civil Agreement” party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the opposition forces. Meanwhile, the government is taking certain measures to maintain the majority in the parliament to ensure.

The 2026 elections will be the first nationwide elections in Armenia after the country’s leadership recognized the Nagorno Karabakh territory as Azerbaijani, which caused a complex socio-political divide in Armenian society.

The interest in the results of the upcoming vote is fully justified by its significance. Armenia is a parliamentary republic headed by a prime minister elected by the parliament. in fact, the head of the government is appointed by the parliamentary majority.

It depends on the results of the elections՞c country will be able to overcome the political clash of the current and former ruling elites, and will continue to do so՞ should Armenia “diversify” its economic model and foreign policy priorities towards the West and Turkey?։ In that case, over time, it is possible to break traditional ties with Russia, which will most likely lead to additional serious economic problems for Armenia and, as a result, impoverishment of the population.

Փաշինյանը, փորձելով ընդլայնել իր ընտրազանգվածը, փաստացի արդեն մեկուկես տարի առաջ քարոզարշավը սկսեց մարզային շրջայցերով, հեծանվաերթերով և այլ միջոցառումներով: To change the situation with the drop rating willingly he is trying to increase his popularity and at the same time threatens with another war, announcing that if he is not elected, it will begin in September. Despite this, polls so far are showing a downward trend in the support of his electorate. Moreover, Political analysts certainly cannot claim that Pashinyan will win, but they are also in no hurry to declare that the opposition will win.:

There’s a lot on the table. And the ruling party uses a multi-level strategy that combines institutional and propaganda tools.՝ including changes to electoral legislation on the eve of elections and pressure on opposition leaders through the legal system.

Armenian political scientists do not rule out the application of the scenario tested in Moldova, rejecting the registration of pro-Russian political forces: For such a refusal in Armenia, it is enough that any of the members of the CEC file a complaint regarding the inconsistency of the submitted documents with the requirements established by the electoral code, and also that the objection be approved by two-thirds of the votes of CEC members. The CEC is headed by Vahagn Hovakimyan, a former member of the CP, a close friend of Pashinyan, who collaborated with him on his family daily “Haykakan Zhamanak”.

in 2022 entered into force The amendments to the EC, in which pre-election political ones were put campaign the new rules. With one such change is planned to that only RA citizens can provide financial support to political forces in the maximum amount of 10 million drams (a little more than 20 thousand US dollars at the time of the entry into force of the change) during 1 year, which is not something outside the norms of universally accepted world practice. But in the same year it became known that the ruling party itself violates that norm։

CP has named 140 “philanthropists” among those financing its activities, 134 of which are members of that party, which is not prohibited. The problem, however, is that the Civilnet news portal is an investigation carried out by establishing contact with many of the mentioned benefactors. 15 of them denied having donated any money for the party’s needs at all, while others avoided answering.։ It is predictableBefore the elections, the relevant authorities will probably look for illegal cash injections, but don’t՞or again only in the opposition camp.

In April, a number of arrests of supporters of “Strong Armenia” were already carried out. On April 14, on charges of violating the ban on charity during the pre-election period (on the birthday of 103-year-old Amalya Abgaryan, a participant in the Great Patriotic War congratulations) two members of the party were arrested. On April 16, during the searches of the party’s office in Artashat was arrested 15 people allegedly in the case of alleged election bribery. It seems that the authorities are trying to create grounds to remove the “Strong Armenia” bloc from the election.

Accepted changes according toIn the EC, the threshold for individual parties to enter parliament has been lowered (from 5 percent to 4 percent), but at the same time, it becomes more difficult to create large alliances that could really compete for power (up to 8 percent for coalitions of three parties and up to 10 percent for alliances with a larger number of participants). This, in fact, makes the creation of broad opposition alliances much more risky and difficult.

On January 23, at the initiative of the ruling party in the EC done change in limiting the possibilities of independent observation and control of elections. The new law prohibits election observation organizations that “publicly campaign” for or against certain forces.:This is a copy of the regulation applied in Moldova, when the pro-government observation mission gets all the opportunities, and on the contrary, the opposition representatives, in fact, can be prohibited from working in the elections. This initiative is directed against a number of non-governmental organizations, which are accused of “biased behavior” in the previous elections.

On April 7, the Armenian Parliament will have a second and final reading accepted Additional amendments to the Electoral Code. The document, which was also drafted by the ruling party’s deputies and was presented in an extraordinary session a day before the discussion, plans to ban the use of names of individuals in the names of parties and pre-election alliances.

Only the representatives of the ruling faction voted for the adoption of the amendments. The Armenian opposition has stated that the amendments are directed against the name of the party alliance “Strong Armenia with Samvel Karapetyan”, which was created by that Armenian businessman living in Russia, who is located under house arrest.

Thus, the Armenian authorities changed the rules of the game just a few days before the acceptance of the documents (April 13).։ Changes in the key provisions of the Electoral Code of Armenia in less than half a year also contradict the recommendations of the Venice Commission. Such changes can be made at least 1 year before the elections, so that the subjects of the electoral process can adapt to the new conditions.: Moreover, the western institutions, which are called to protect democratic values, remain silent on this occasion.

At the same time, the authorities use arrests, searches and criminal proceedings on charges that the opposition and a number of experts consider political motives. In particular, Premier Christian Newsthe writes` In 2025, “Armenia arrested half of its archbishops during a large-scale crackdown on dissent.” in June 2025 were arrested Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, the leader of the “Holy Struggle” movement, who played a key role in the mass protests of 2024, as well as dozens of his supporters.

They are accused of terrorism, mass riots and trying to seize power. Political scientists associate the persecution of the clergy with both the neutralization of the protest movement and the pressure on the Armenian Apostolic Church, which was traditionally an influential institution and in recent years criticized Nikol Pashinyan’s political course.

The attempts of one of the main, if not the main, benefactors of the Armenian Apostolic Church (ARC), Samvel Karapetyan, to come out in support of the church, which allocated large funds for the restoration and renovation of Etchmiadzin, are over with his arrest. To him is an accusation run for public appeals to seize power, and later for tax evasion, money laundering and property theft.

However, Karapetyan’s arrest did not receive the support of the Armenian population. Moreover, as a result, it opened a path for the businessman to big politics, where the “Strong Armenia” party he created became one of the most powerful power centers of the opposition camp.

He continues to be under house arrest, and his company, “Electric Networks of Armenia”, has been nationalized. Court on April 17 for another three months extended Karapetyan’s detention, which, according to the expert community, technically deprives denying him the opportunity to fully participate in the pre-election campaign.

Two mayors of major cities of Armenia who represented the opposition were also arrested. For example, the mayor of Gyumri, the second largest city in Armenia, V. The criminal case against Ghukasyan was initiated under Article 422 of the RA Code of Criminal Procedure (public calls to seize power, violate territorial integrity, renounce sovereignty, or forcibly overthrow the constitutional order). The opposition believes that it is for statements about the need for an alliance with Russia.

Moreover, the leader of the ruling party uses negative rhetoric towards the opponents. Thus, in general, he labels the opposition forces as a “party of war”, and in his speech in the parliament on April 17, Pashinyan called the potential voters of the opposition named “dog and dog”. This statement raised a wave of indignation on social networks and was evaluated as an insult. The prime minister is also trying to publicly label his political rival, Samvel Karapetyan, as “distributing election bribes”.

Moreover, according to the opposition, the increase in pensions two months before the elections is not a result of systemic reforms, but a direct election bribe of the state budget. account։

At the same time, the experts point out Vague indicators of Pashinyan’s popularity. This is also documented by a Western organization affiliated with the American Council on Foreign Policy sources. “…KP’s popularity has decreased, 2026 the ruling party will face tough competition in the parliamentary elections. The outcome of the vote may determine whether Armenia will return to its previous pro-Russian and pro-Iranian position.”

In response, pro-government political technologists started publish sociological polls that present a picture of the CP party leadership. However, experts and politicians have questioned their reliability, stating that sociology has long been a tool for studying public sentiments in the country. turned into a way to influence them.

However, even these survey results prove that the aggregate rating of the three main opposition forces (“Strong Armenia” bloc, “Prosperous Armenia” bloc and “Armenia” bloc) exceeds the indicator of the ruling party.: The representatives of the opposition claim that the real support of their forces is much higher, and the published data is the result of an order.

It is the electoral insecurity that forces the CP to assure the voters of its unconditional victory։ According to political technologists, such pre-election rhetoric demoralizes undecided voters (of whom there are about 60%) and allows the electorate to believe that the election results are predetermined. This, according to their calculations, should reduce voter turnout, which will only benefit the ruling party։

His electorate goes to the polls in an orderly manner every election, and in the low turnout of supporters of other parties, he ends up in the majority. At the same time, it should be admitted that the ruling party, due to the attraction of administrative resources and the actual monopoly in the country’s information space, seems to be the favorite in the election campaign for now, although this difference cannot be called significant.

In this context, the leaders of the opposition, weighing all the positive and negative aspects, considered that going to the elections with a single list is extremely risky. And if they act separately, the possible ban on the registration of any party or alliance will contribute to increasing the number of votes for other opposition forces. It is unlikely that any party will succeed in winning alone in Armenia, but the sum of the votes of the opposition forces may exceed the percentage that the ruling party can collect.

Currently, the opposition in Armenia is represented by three different structures. arrested businessman Samvel Karapetyan’s “Strong Armenia” alliance (including the “Strong Armenia”, “New Age” and “United Armenians” political forces), the “Armenia” alliance of former president Robert Kocharian (comprising the “Armenian Revolutionary Federation” party, the right-wing “Apr” party) and the “Prosperous Armenia” party of one of the richest entrepreneurs of the republic, Garik Tsarukyan.

In the parliamentary elections to be held in June, the opposition forces intend to come to power in the “Gyumru-2” scenario (to reduce vote polling as much as possible, and then to conclude factional alliances in the already elected body). After the March 30, 2025 local government elections, when the opposition succeeded to unite, the failure of CP in the second city of the republic was a painful lesson for Yerevan. Opponents of Pashinyan hope to create tactical alliances after the elections on this background.

The leader of Armenia bloc, former president Robert Kocharyan stated earlier that the approaches of the opposition in fundamental issues are similar, but he does not see the point in uniting just before the elections.

The opposition party “Mother Armenia” led by Andranik Tevanyan was established in September 2025 on the basis of the alliance of the same name and has a faction in the Yerevan Council of Elders. Tevanyan emphasizes. “The June elections should be approached as a referendum on the preservation of Armenia’s independence and territorial integrity. The future of our country will depend on the voice of every citizen. Staying at home, being passive and disappointed is the same as desertion.”

Samvel Karapetyan “Ohstrong Armenia» the alliance is considered one of the main opposition favorites in the upcoming parliamentary elections. His involvement fundamentally changed the political landscape, tearing it apart «former ones» and: «of those present» the logic of confrontation. New the party filled a niche previously perceived as lacking an alternative. As a result, even those citizens who normally do not participate in elections can show activism.

Paradoxically, the restrictive measures applied to Karapetyan and his supporters can have a double effect։ On the one hand, they objectively make the campaign of one of the most popular opposition forces difficult. On the other hand, they can mobilize oppositional the electorate. Thus, in the middle of April, one of the biggest rallies of recent months took place in Yerevan, which, according to some data, gathered about 40 thousand people.

Karapetyan himself emphasizes on young people, who until then were mostly not involved in active political activities. He focuses attention on solving the problems of economic development of the country, the social problems of the population, trying to avoid as much as possible clarifications on foreign political views, in particular, on geopolitical priorities. Karapetyan’s “5 steps of power” economic in the program One of the key directions was the industrialization of Armenia, with the simultaneous creation of 300,000 quality and well-paid jobs throughout the country.։

The program is aimed at developing the economy, creating real opportunities for business, strengthening family and national values, restoring the reputation of Armenia as a reliable partner, as well as ensuring the rights of the people of Artsakh to live in dignity, restoring faith in the future of young people through the development of the education system, and preserving and protecting the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church.

And here obviously there is competition between Samvel Karapetyan and Nikol Pashinyan’s programs, which are presented In the doctrine of economic and institutional transformation of Armenia.

In a tense domestic situation, Nikol Pashinyan and his team are trying to get support from abroad. The Prime Minister represents the ruling Communist Party as the only pro-Western force that brings peace to the region, and the opposition as allegedly “pro-Russian agents”. Against the background of these statements, he is trying to get the patronage of the West before the next parliamentary elections.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed unconditional support Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, in Baku are ready to be 100% in solidarity with the position of the Turkish minister։

Kaia Callas, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy stated directly about the readiness of the EU to intervene in the electoral process. “There are elections in Armenia soon, and what can we do to help them?” They asked for help to fight against the harmful influence. This assistance is similar to what we have provided to Moldova.” He promised to allocate 15 million euros to Armenia to counter “foreign interference in the upcoming elections”. If “as in Moldova”, then it is not interference in the electoral process.

The fact that a hybrid support group is arriving in the country from the European Union also indicates the insecure position of the ruling party and the need for external support power. Undoubtedly, the participants of the summit of the European political community and the first European Union-Armenia summit tried to demonstrate it.

On the eve of the elections to the current government supported also US Vice President JD Vance during his February visit to Armenia.

However, everything is not so clear-cut regarding the “Western approach” to the June 7 elections։ Unlike Western official circles, the Armenian diaspora, which has ties with the governments and parliaments of Western states, often does not support Pashinyan’s foreign and domestic political course.

April 11-12 in the capital of France happened Diaspora Armenian Nationwide Military Movement Congress։ 150 representatives of public associations from both Armenia and 26 countries of the world participated in the event.

The Paris Congress gave its interpretation of the situation in Armenia. The government’s policy towards the Armenian Apostolic Church was severely criticized. There have been many criticisms of the Prime Minister and his refusal to support and advance the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide.: Karabakh, of course, is a “traumatic point” for many diaspora activists. They also did not accept the concept of “real Armenia”, which actually separates the current Republic from the large Diaspora.

In addition, the Congress delegates called on all citizens of Armenia, wherever they are, to come to the country and vote in the upcoming elections. “It is necessary to change the anti-national course of the current authorities and establish the national-state course of development,” the statement said.

In contrast to the demonstrative interference in the Armenian elections by Western politicians, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his meeting with the Armenian Prime Minister on April 1, simply hoped expressedpro-Russian forces թույլատրվելու է մասնակցել հանրապետությունում կայանալիք ընտրություններին։

In my opinion, Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow was an attempt to show hesitant voters that the Prime Minister is not disposed against Russia, as he has stated many times. However, in the context of these statements, it was not possible to reach clear agreements, and the known difficulties in relations are preserved. After the public debate with the Russian President, Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk gave clear signals about Russia’s “red lines” in Armenia’s foreign policy and economy.

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The analysis of expert assessments shows that the opposition’s chances in the 2026 Armenian parliamentary elections are significant, but limited by systemic problems.

On the one hand, the current government approaches the elections with a heavy burden of unresolved issues, from the consequences of military defeat to socio-economic difficulties, which creates objective prerequisites for changing it. The ratings of the ruling party, while remaining high among individual political forces, may not be sufficient for a sure victory.

On the other hand, the opposition is highly fragmented, lacking a unified leader and program, and carries the negative burden of associations with former ruling elites.

Experts agree that the behavior of an undecided and protesting electorate, which makes up a large part of the population, will be a key factor. The geopolitical context (rapprochement with the EU while maintaining historical ties with Russia) and the internal political conflict with the Armenian Apostolic Church add additional uncertainty to the pre-election race.

Alexander Annanand:

Retired Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

interaffairs.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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