The End of Moscow’s Monopoly: America’s Strategic Victory in the South Caucas

Historically, the South Caucasus has been at the epicentre of great power rivalries, from Roman to Russian hegemonies, shaping a complex region marked by deep ethnic divisions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region has often been labelled as Russia’s backyard, but this dynamic is now shifting as growing American interest expands Washington’s sphere of influence directly along Moscow’s periphery.

The US Vice President’s historic state visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan on 9–11 February captured a pivotal moment in contemporary American foreign policy. What was once considered peripheral to American interests is now positioned to consolidate the United States’ strategic diplomatic and economic orbit. Under President Trump’s second term, Washington has emerged as a guarantor of regional peace, with plans to advance major investments in AI, defence, energy, and trade corridors. Key agreements totalled billions of dollars, signalling a westward reorientation amid declining Russian influence.

First American Vice President in Armenia

J D Vance honoured the Armenian victims of the tragic events of 1915 at the Tsitsernakaberd Memorial Complex in Yerevan on 9 February as a gesture of solidarity prior to official talks with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. He continued to emphasize Armenia’s importance in the Christian faith as one of the first peoples to accept and missionize the religion. Both officials prioritized the TRIPP (Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity) initiative, designed to facilitate Armenia’s role as a Europe–Asia bridge for trade and energy flows. This economic corridor would enable Central Asian rare earth minerals, uranium, and other metals to be exported to Western markets via Azerbaijan and Armenia, including through the Zangezur, or Syunik, corridor, thereby significantly reducing US dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies, which currently account for approximately 70 per cent of American consumption.

‘Under President Trump’s second term, Washington has emerged as a guarantor of regional peace’

Among the many significant deals signed in Yerevan, the agreement on AI and semiconductors attracted considerable attention following the Vice President’s endorsement of NVIDIA’s partnership with Freebird AI. The project entails a $500 million initial factory, expanding into a $4 billion Phase 2 megaproject—one of the world’s top five GPU clusters—creating jobs and reducing US chip vulnerabilities.

Another civil nuclear agreement, aimed at reducing Yerevan’s reliance on Russian energy, secured a $5 billion US investment to construct small modular reactors, along with $4 billion in long-term support to help Armenia diversify its energy portfolio. A defence cooperation agreement included an $11 million V-BAT drone sale under the Foreign Military Sales programme, enhancing surveillance capabilities following joint ‘Eagle Partner’ exercises. In Armenia’s experience, drone supremacy proved decisive during the Second Karabakh War, when Azerbaijan deployed advanced Israeli and Turkish drones to shift the conflict’s outcome.

However, Iranian pressure on Armenian officials—Khalil Shirgholami confirmed that a deal is expected to be signed in 2026—could potentially complicate expanded military cooperation with Washington, given the sensitivity of exposing American technology to hostile states. The IRGC and Iran’s political establishment have consistently opposed President Trump’s regional peace efforts and have attempted to disrupt the process through various channels.

Vance’s Visit to Azerbaijan and the Charter of Strategic Partnership

Vice President Vance’s visit to Baku was the highest-level diplomatic trip of an American official to the nation’s capital since Dick Cheney’s 2008 tour of the South Caucasus. The Second Lady, Usha Vance and the Vice President paid their respects at the Alley of Martyrs, laying a wreath at the Eternal Flame to honour the victims of the 20 January 1990 Soviet massacre, symbolizing respect for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.

The historic visit defines a turning point in US–Azerbaijan relations, underscored by the signing of the Charter of Strategic Partnership, which formalizes cooperation will cover defence, AI, counterterrorism, and Caspian maritime security. The agreement also encourages private US investment in Azerbaijan’s infrastructure, including the establishment of multiple AI data centres to expand America’s digital footprint, although specific financial figures remain undisclosed pending private sector commitments.

‘The historic visit defines a turning point in US–Azerbaijan relations’

The defence pact provides for the export of American-made patrol boats to complement Azerbaijan’s newly acquired Israeli-made ‘Sea Breaker’ precision-guided missiles, strengthening its capacity to address Iranian threats in the Caspian Sea. Integration into the TRIPP strengthens Azerbaijan’s posture in rerouting Central Asian rare minerals westward, enhancing US supply chain resilience which will ultimately grant Washington greater strategic access to the Caspian basin and the Middle Corridor.

The record of Azerbaijan is a testimony of its active participation in NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme together with its peacekeeping operations alongside American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The country holds strategic importance for United States interests because it shares a border with Iran, and operates as a vital transportation link between Central Asia and the rest of the region.

Erosion of Russian Influence and the Rise of US Engagement

Under Nikol Pashinyan’s premiership, Armenia has transformed from a Russian satellite state into a pro-Western democracy, aiming to deepen its ties with the European Union and the United States. Following the peace agreement signed under the supervision of President Trump, Azerbaijan also appears to be moving along a more US-aligned trajectory.

Baku has traditionally maintained relatively pro-Western orientations due to its close ties with Ankara and Jerusalem, while supplying natural gas to more than a dozen EU member states. Recent developments further institutionalize both Yerevan’s and Baku’s political engagement, reflected in their accession to the Board of Peace as founding members.

For Armenia, Russia has proven to be an unreliable guarantor of its security, significantly eroding public trust. Fewer than 20 per cent of Armenians now perceive Russia as a reliable ally, compared to 93 per cent in 2013. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is seeking the repeal of Section 907 following its suspension under President Trump’s rapprochement policy in August 2025, a move that would further enhance military ties between Azerbaijan and the United States.

Despite Russia’s role as a catalyst for renewed tensions and regional instability, both countries remain committed to learning how to coexist in peace. The downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane in December 2024, along with Russia’s continued efforts to undermine Nikol Pashinyan’s democratically elected government, has discouraged both nations from seeking political alignment with Moscow. At the same time, US strategic interests in the region centre on preserving peace after three decades of continuous bloodshed.

Farid Shukurlu is a Research Fellow at the Danube Institute in Budapest. He holds an LLM in International Law from the University of Hull and a Bachelor of Social Sciences, magna cum laude, in International Relations and European Politics from Masaryk University, with additional studies in European Union law at Eötvös Loránd University.

His research focuses on international law on the use of force, security doctrine, and the foreign policies of the United States, the United Kingdom, Hungary, and Israel, with particular expertise in EU law and international law.