Transport geopolitics. Kazakhstan as a Turkic influence

While the war against the neighboring Islamic Republic of Iran is constantly being discussed in the international press, attracting international relations and US foreign policy “attention”, the US interest in TRIPP does not seem to fade.

Although the pace of implementation of agreements has suffered significantly. Before the American side becomes active, third parties apply to participate in TRIPP-related processes. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan Yermek Kosherbaev and the Minister of Transport Nurlan Sauranbaev are making official visits to Yerevan and Baku these days. The agenda of the Kazakh side seems to be broad, Kazakhstan has been frequently mentioned in Armenian official messages and speeches in recent months, taking a key role in establishing contacts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as in wider regional geopolitical and transport processes.

However, returning to the visits, we should mention that during the official visit to Yerevan on April 8-9, Minister Kosherbaev met both RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Nikol Pashinyan. Ararat Mirzoyan in the meeting with his Kazakh counterpart, he noted that the establishment of strategic partnership, which took place in November last year, when Nikol Pashinyan paid an official visit to Kazakhstan, became an important stage in the development of Armenian-Kazakh relations.

“In our broad agenda, I must emphasize one important, key direction for the economic development of our two countries and regions: interconnection. I am sure that the joint efforts towards the further development of transport and logistics infrastructures, including the logic of the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative of the Armenian government, will contribute to the best realization of the economic potential of the region and the strengthening of interregional cooperation,” Mirzoyan told the Foreign Minister of a country that has started importing wheat through Azerbaijan to Armenia in recent months.

Pashinyan, in turn, noted in the meeting with the Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan that the processes taking place in the region have a positive effect on the cooperation between Armenia and Kazakhstan, in particular, the railway communication established through Azerbaijan, Russia and Georgia gives a new impetus to the expansion of trade and economic ties.

Yermek Kosherbaev also said that the established railway communication will significantly expand bilateral trade and economic relations.

At the same time, Yermek Kosherbaev emphasized the unblocking of regional communication channels and highlighted Kazakhstan’s support for TRIPP and the RA Government’s “Crossroads of Peace” projects. He emphasized that Kazakhstan is also interested in the implementation of the above-mentioned projects and the expansion of regional trade and economic ties.

Nikol Pashinyan and Yermek Kosherbaev discussed issues related to the development of cooperation in the fields of infrastructure, construction, agriculture, technology, aviation and tourism. In that regard, the implementation of direct flights between Armenia and Kazakhstan, which will start in the near future, was highlighted. Kazakh officials are in Baku today, where they met with Ilham Aliyev, discussing the Middle Corridor, the Trans-Caspian Green Energy Corridor, and the fiber optic line on which Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are cooperating. Baku also mentioned the role of the process of normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the TRIPP project.

It was a short time ago when Nikol Pashinyan announced that Armenia is losing its competitive advantage in the general context of regional de-blockade due to the Russian management of Armenian railways.

According to Nikol Pashinyan, the solution to the situation should be for a country friendly to Russia and Armenia to buy the right of concession management from Russia. However, Moscow does not seem to be enthusiastic about this proposal of Yerevan. At the meeting with the Russian President in the Kremlin on April 1, Pashinyan most likely did not receive a positive response from Moscow in this regard. After that visit, on April 2, during the briefing following the Government session in RA, Pashinyan stated that they have no plans to unilaterally terminate the railway management contract. “The Republic of Armenia has that leverage, but we don’t plan and don’t want to go that way,” Pashinyan said.

To the question of whether it is possible for Yerevan, regardless of Moscow’s position, to try to negotiate and reach an agreement with the Kazakh side, Pashinyan responded by saying that they are not going to do anything behind Russia’s back and will continue to work against the Russian Federation, at least at this stage as long as the opportunities for dialogue are wide and open.

According to Pashinyan, the visit of Kazakh officials is related to the TRIPP project. According to him, the Kazakh side is interested in TRIPP. They are trying to understand what transport opportunities are opening up, including for themselves.

“We should also invite Kazakhstan to be ready to use the transit routes passing through Armenia to look at their exports, imports and the transport services they provide in the chain, because the business of the transport sector, which is private, but the state also has a certain role, cannot be taken separately, because very well, it was taken from one part of the country to another border, but in continuation, there must be a strong partnership in order for that sector to work,” Pashinyan said.

Today, during a joint press conference with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia, speaking about RA-US cooperation on TRIPP, RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan said that partners, that is, third parties, will be needed during the construction of TRIPP, as well as in the system management phase.

“It’s no secret that, as much as this is a bilateral project, it stems from and corresponds to the interests of many countries, starting from China, ending with Portugal, not to mention our immediate neighbors. Isn’t TRIPP on another planet? One end of TRIPP should touch the Republic of Azerbaijan, the other end should end in Nakhchivan, which is also the Republic of Azerbaijan, but the logical continuation, we have talked about this a lot, is Yeraskhov, the other network of Armenian railways, the Kars-Gyur railway junction and the Turkish railway network, the countries of Central Asia are especially very interested… a day ago we met here with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, who was also in Armenia accompanied by the Minister of Transport of Kazakhstan, therefore, there are discussions, the Middle Eastern countries are interested in these topics,” said Mirzoyan.

Kazakhstan has quite ambitious plans in the South Caucasus, striving to become an economic “guarantor” in the region, connecting its interests with the stability of the Trans-Caspian international transport route. In this context, Kazakhstan’s interest is not only political, but also strategic, aimed at the uninterrupted operation of alternative land routes and the suppression of Russian influence.

For the Kazakh side, TRIPP is considered as an element of the Middle Corridor. This interest acquires a systematic and more important character, especially in the light of the proposal made by the Armenian government to the Russian side regarding the transfer of the right of concession management of Armenian railways to Kazakhstan. This is an attempt to move the management of transport infrastructure away from the sphere of Russian influence. The Russian side’s disagreement shows that the Kremlin views control over regional communications as a cornerstone of its geopolitical influence. Kazakhstan’s entry into the Armenian infrastructural field can weaken Russia’s leverage in the region, which is perceived by Moscow as an undesirable change in the status quo, even taking into account the allied relations with Astana within the EAEU framework.

It should also be noted that Kazakhstan’s involvement in the transportation hubs of the South Caucasus significantly strengthens the Turkish factor in the South Caucasus. Astana’s ambitions are seen as the completion of a unified economic chain of the “Turkic world”, which is strategically beneficial to both Baku and Ankara. As a result, the replacement of Russian concession control by Kazakh may become the point where Moscow’s influence will significantly suffer, paving the way for new alliances and communication models where the priority is not post-Soviet ties, but deepening new relations between Turkic-speaking states.

Yerevan has obviously positioned itself in this field, contributing to the establishment of Kazakhstan in new transport projects, simultaneously pushing out the Russian presence from the Armenian transport network.

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