This is not blackmail, it is the objective reality, but when the exporter does not raise his voice

During and after Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Russia, the statements of Russian officials in Armenia had all kinds of reactions, including accusations of interfering in the internal life of Armenia, to speaking in the language of warning.

Economist Hayk Farmanyan, for example, does not think this is an intervention or a warning.

“This is an increase in objective reality, – 168․amIn a conversation with the economist mentioned and elaborated, leaving the EAEU means the collapse of our economy. And when they say: let the price of gas become 600 dollars, we will leave the EAEU, they probably hoped to get cheaper gas from Azerbaijan. Alen Simonyan also says that Azerbaijan is the guarantor of our security.

Naturally, Azerbaijan cannot be a guarantor of security, nor can buying gas from Azerbaijan be considered energy security by us.”

According to Hayk Farmanyan, at this moment, those circles that may be affected by these decisions in the future should have a say.

“There are economic statistics. 60 percent of our export volume is to EAEU countries. EAEU membership also means free movement of labor force and duty-free trade. Now what will happen when Armenia leaves that union? Russia will collect customs duties from us.

Let the trading entities that export their products to the Russian Federation think for themselves and make their voices heard. I have the impression that those business circles avoid speaking about the risks they face,” he emphasized.

The economist responded to the observation that they are still talking about the possibility of combining the two economic unions. “And the Russian authorities record the fact, they say: you cannot be in two unions. That is, if the European Union is hostile to Russia, and you go to the European Union, then… What does Overchuk say? you will not have an air border. In other words, this is just a record of a completely logical fact. This is neither blackmail, neither good nor bad, just the simple reality.

In other words, what the authorities of Armenia will say is their idea.

But, I repeat again, those economic subjects of the Republic of Armenia, which export to Russia, should already follow up and raise their voices.”

Hayk Farmanyan also emphasized that today the economic prospects for the EU are not realistic either.

“What are the Armenian authorities doing? They say we will direct our exports to the European Union. What do the numbers say? Let’s compare the 1st quarter of 2025 with the 1st quarter of 2026. compared to the same period of the previous year, we have a decline, and this is in the event that the Armenian authorities finance from the state budget all those economic entities that export to the EU member countries, in the amount of the customs duty that is payable in the given EU country.

Even in this case, when 2-4 billion dollars were financed from the budget of Armenia, that amount did not serve its purpose, because we have a decline in exports. Now, in this case, it is absurd to talk that the European Union will be seen as an alternative, that buying gas from Azerbaijan will be seen as an alternative, etc. I cannot comment.

The number one beneficiary of these realities is the businessman, the exporter. “When the exporter does not raise his voice, whatever the political forces say or not does not matter,” he concluded.

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