April 3 2026
Armenia’s ties with Russia at post-independence low
Elliott, an analyst with the Armenian Mirror-Spectator, told TVP World’s Eastern Express program that while Russia will remain a regional power Armenia cannot ignore, the country’s broader trajectory is now clearly westward.
His comments come as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to signal that closer integration with Europe is a strategic goal, while also stressing that any final decision on EU membership would belong to the Armenian public.
‘Stunning reversal’
“There is a consensus in Armenia that Armenia is making a westward shift,” Elliott said, describing what he sees as a fundamental change in the country’s geopolitical orientation.
He cautioned that Russia is “not going anywhere,” given Armenia’s geography, history and economic links, but said ties with Moscow are now at their lowest point since Armenia gained independence in 1991
He also acknowledged that pro-Russian voices still matter in Armenian politics, especially among voters with family, business or labor ties to Russia. But, he argued, the balance has changed sharply. “Armenia actually sees actors like France and the European Union as much closer allies than it does Russia, which is a stunning reversal.”
That change has unfolded against the backdrop of Armenia’s growing frustration with Moscow’s security guarantees and its cooled relationship with the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.
In February 2024, Armenia suspended its participation in the CSTO – a military alliance made up of former Soviet states and the Kremlin’s answer to NATO – with Pashinyan saying the bloc had failed the country.
The Kremlin’s limits
Elliott said a recent meeting between Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared awkward, reflecting a relationship that is increasingly strained in public as well as behind closed doors.
He suggested Moscow still wants to remind Yerevan of the limits of its room for maneuver, particularly as Armenia heads toward a parliamentary election in June.
That tension was also visible in Putin’s remarks on Armenia’s European ambitions.
While the Russian leader said Moscow was calm about Yerevan developing ties with the EU, he also underlined that Armenia could not simultaneously belong to both the EU’s customs framework and the Eurasian Economic Union.
Pashinyan, for his part, has said Armenia will continue trying to balance its current commitments with its longer-term European aspirations.
Railways: symbol of dependence
The interview also turned to Armenian railways, which remain under Russian control as a legacy of earlier debt-for-assets arrangements. Elliott said that issue has become a symbol of how post-Soviet dependence still constrains Armenia’s strategic choices.
He argued that the rail system no longer fits Yerevan’s ambition to turn Armenia into a regional transit hub linking Georgia, Iran, Turkey and, eventually, broader trade routes across the region.
Kazakhstan has been mentioned as one possible alternative partner, he noted, while French and US interest has also surfaced in discussions about infrastructure and modernization.
The broader direction of travel, however, appears clear. Armenia has been widening cooperation with European partners, including Poland, as it tries to reduce its reliance on Moscow while avoiding an outright rupture with its powerful neighbor.
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