Verelq: From blockade to transit. Will power exports change Hara?

Recently, in the center of attention of the expert community and political circles, the prospect of uniting Armenia’s electricity grids with the neighboring countries, Turkey and Azerbaijan, is being actively discussed. Against the background of the changing geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus, politicians are increasingly talking about energy cooperation. About how realistic such projects are from an engineering point of view, what benefits and challenges they promise to Armenia’s economy due to the rapid growth of solar generation, what prevents their immediate implementation, and how regional tensions around Iran can affect Armenia’s energy security. VERELQ an expert in the field of energy told in an interview to the periodical Ara Marjanyan։

Ara Marjanyan is in the photo, the source is Sputnik

VERELQ: Mr. Marjanyan, statements about the possible connection of Armenia’s power grids with Turkey and Azerbaijan have been actively discussed for several weeks now. How realistic and forward-looking is this direction?

Ara Marjanyan. From a technical point of view, the restoration of parallel work with Azerbaijan’s electric power system does not present a particularly great difficulty. For decades, our energy systems have operated in parallel mode. This will require the restoration of overhead high-voltage lines and some upgrading of substations in both countries. This is about the technical side of the matter.

From an economic point of view, the unification of the parallel work of the electricity systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan seems extremely beneficial for our country, because Armenia has a significant potential for electricity export. In addition, the geography is such that Armenia can provide electricity transit from Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan or supply there directly from its own balances.

From the geopolitical point of view, in the changed current situation, the signing of last year’s bilateral and trilateral memorandums creates quite favorable conditions for the implementation of such projects. However, it is necessary to raise the main condition and concern of Armenia. the development of all these initiatives should not hinder, but, on the contrary, should contribute to the development of energy cooperation between Armenia and Iran.

VERELQ: Between our two countries, there is an agreement on the supply of gas for electricity under the barter scheme.

Ara Marjanyan. Absolutely true. And I think that the commissioning of the third 400 kilovolt high-voltage line should remain in the focus of attention of both Armenia and Iran. It will have additional and complementary significance both for the creation of the possibility of parallel work of the power systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as for the implementation of the complex project of de-blocking Armenia and the launch of relevant transit projects.

VERELQ: And what about Turkey? How realistic is cooperation in this direction?

Ara Marjanyan. The connection of Armenian and Turkish networks is quite realistic. Let me remind you that during the Soviet years, there was a high-voltage power transmission line from Gyumri in Armenia (then called Leninakan) to Kars in Turkey, through which mutual flows of electricity were carried out. In 2009, Armenia offered Turkey to restore the operation of that line. However, at that time, the region was in the geopolitical logic of encircling Armenia and suffocating its economy, so Turkey refused to implement that project.

Instead, they built a Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan power bridge. Turkey expected significant supplies of electricity from Azerbaijan and Georgia. But, as we noted back then, these were completely unreasonable expectations. Neither Azerbaijan, nor Georgia, neither at that time, nor today, nor in the near future, significant volumes of electricity are planned for export to Turkey.

The new geopolitical situation created in our region since August 2025 suggests that the energy cooperation between Armenia and Turkey can be revived. Such a partnership will serve the interests of both countries. First, it will allow Armenia to export both its base-load electricity, which is produced by gas and nuclear plants, as well as two hydrocascades, as well as energy from solar photovoltaic plants. And isn’t it the case that the development of solar generation in Armenia has experienced an unprecedented, rapid growth? we now have more than 1,000 MW of photovoltaic capacity installed, which is roughly three times the capacity of an operating nuclear power plant unit.

The possibility of exporting solar electricity to Turkey or, in the more distant future, to Europe (for example, through the Black Sea submarine cable or other projects) will allow Armenia to relieve the difficult situation created in the country due to the overproduction of solar energy. This opens the door to export clean and fairly cheap electricity outside the country’s borders.

VERELQ: Mr. Marjanyan, from a technical point of view, as you say, all this is feasible. But if it is so beneficial, why hasn’t the process started yet? Why are Turkey and Azerbaijan still blocking it?

Ara Marjanyan. This is where we go beyond engineering. The point is that in many cases the interests of politics, especially regional ones, contradict common sense and obvious mutually beneficial solutions based on certain psychological, historical and geopolitical considerations. Of course, all these factors are present, but I think the situation is different today. There is now an opportunity to pursue obvious and mutually beneficial solutions rather than outdated and entrenched political patterns.

VERELQ: It is clear. And a question about Iran. Given Trump’s threats to target Iran’s energy capabilities (in this case, substations), and considering our close cooperation (isn’t Iran effectively acting as the frequency regulator of Armenia’s power grids), would this worst-case scenario pose threats to Armenian energy?

Ara Marjanyan. First of all, let me begin by extending my support to the heroic Iranian people who are going through extremely difficult times right now. I believe that they will successfully overcome these trials.

As for the negative development of events and the possible threats to the Armenian electric power system in the event of strikes on Iran’s electric power facilities, it will certainly lead to certain losses for our energy. However, this will not undermine its stable operation and will not call into question Armenia’s ability to take care of its own needs.

In the worst case, the commissioning of the third high-voltage line, which was planned for this year, will be delayed for a longer time. It is possible that the infrastructure of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline will be affected, which will lead to the temporary suspension of works under the “gas for electricity” barter agreement. However, even in such an extreme adverse scenario, the blow to Armenia’s electricity supply will be insignificant and our energy system will maintain its stability.

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