The war against Iran goes beyond the logic of a quick war. who is the thread?

While the US-Israeli war against Iran continues, US President Donald Trump, speaking about the so-called negotiations with Iran, made a number of harsh statements regarding Iran, negotiations and allies during the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers.

He continued to insist that Washington is “conducting very meaningful negotiations with the right people in Tehran” and stressed that the conflict “will end soon”. According to him, Iran is trying to make a deal because “Iran has been destroyed”. According to Trump, the US has destroyed 90% of Iran’s capabilities, and Iran, according to him, is “begging for a deal.”

At the same time, he pointed out the high level of Iranian negotiators, noting that they are “very smart”. Speaking about military aid, the US president allowed the possibility of resource redistribution. Ammunition intended for Ukraine can be directed in other directions. Trump noted that the US is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, and emphasized that its opening would be possible in case of a “right deal” with Iran. 

On the Truth Social page, Trump wrote that he is postponing the strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for another 10 days. “At the request of the Iranian government, I am postponing the phase of destruction of power plants by 10 days, until April 6, 2026,” the US president wrote.

The talks, according to Trump, are ongoing, and despite statements to the contrary, “they are going very well.”

Despite this, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has called on the entire civilian population of the region to stay away from areas adjacent to the locations of US forces. “The cowardly American-Zionist forces are trying to use civilian places and innocent people as human shields. We advise you to immediately leave the places where the American forces are stationed so that no harm is caused to you,” said the statement, which was published on the Sepah News website.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has announced that strikes against Iran will be intensified and expanded in response to Iran’s missile attacks on civilians.

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I warned the Iranian terrorist regime to stop the rocket attacks on the civilian population of Israel. Despite the warnings, the shelling continues, and therefore ISIL strikes against Iran will intensify and expand to include additional targets and areas that help the regime produce and use weapons against Israeli citizens. They will pay a heavy price for this war crime,” stated Israel Katz.

The war continues, although talks about negotiations do not stop, as well as complaints that the war is too costly for the United States.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the US armed forces suffered a total of 2.9 billion dollars in losses during the first three weeks of the armed conflict with Iran. According to the periodicals, the amount of damage done to American military equipment and replacement of damaged equipment is estimated from 1.4 to 2.9 billion dollars.  The WSJ notes that most of the damage was done by Iranian missiles and drones. Despite all this, according to the American mass media, the Pentagon is also considering a ground operation, for which higher costs are required.

Russian analyst Vladimir Yevseyev in a conversation with 168.am said that the situation goes beyond the logic of a quick war and enters the phase of prolonged, exhausting confrontation. According to his assessment, the initial calculations in Washington and Tel Aviv were based on breaking Iran’s military and nuclear potential through short-term and high-tech pressure, but this scenario did not materialize, Iran not only retained the ability to strike back, but also showed that it is ready to confront, using its main advantages – geopolitical position and energy leverage.

“And against this background, the tension around the Strait of Hormuz became a key factor in the war, because it is here that a significant part of the global oil supply is concentrated. Iran has shown that it can influence not only military, but also global economic processes, increasing its value at any negotiating table. This is the reason why, in the conditions of military pressure, Tehran is not in a hurry to make concessions. And the active talks about the negotiations, which are circulating especially from the American side, reflect political and informational tactics rather than real diplomatic progress. Iran continues to deny the fact of direct negotiations, accepting only mediated communication. This is important, which shows that the parties have not yet reached the level where a real compromise is possible. Their demands remain fundamentally incompatible.” said the analyst. He believes that a rather interesting balance of power is formed against this background.

According to the analyst, although the US continues to maintain its role, its political position has become more complicated: the war is complicated, expensive, long-term, problematic in terms of internal politics, and uncertain and unclear in terms of goals.

“Israel continues to maintain the most rigid line and is interested in the extension, because it understands that it is not possible to quickly achieve the set goals. And Iran, contrary to many predictions, managed to organize the resistance well, strengthening its positions. All this shows that it is too early to talk about the end of the war. It would be appropriate to say that the conflict is changing its form. We notice that the intensity of open military clashes is changing, but the tension remains. In the future, we may witness similar trends. The most realistic scenario is the scenario of de-escalation without a final agreement, that is, the parties will try to reduce the intensity of military strikes, but will not abandon their positions. At the current stage, the side that is able to impose its agenda on the political and economic levels, rather than winning on the military field, is in the most advantageous position. And with this logic, Iran has currently managed to disappoint many and resist, becoming the dictator of conditions. However, this is not the final result, the war continues, negotiations continue between many different players. Let’s not forget that there is talk of a ground operation, it can also be unpredictable, although many people think that the USA has no chance in this matter. predicted the analyst.

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