European Commissioner Martha Kosi the recent visit to Armenia, which was marked by the signing of a 140 million euro agreement and a highly symbolic trip to Gyumri, once again updated the discussions on Yerevan’s foreign policy trajectory. Against the background of the upcoming parliamentary elections, the geopolitical agenda is becoming one of the main tools of the political struggle. declarations of support are being made by Western leaders, and parallels with the recent election processes in Moldova are increasingly drawn in expert circles.
But how realistic is the country’s eventual return to the European Union, given the complex regional context? Is the Armenian society ready to vote exclusively for the sake of the geopolitical vector, pushing urgent socio-economic issues to the background, and how will the crisis created around Iran and the change of administration in the USA affect the security architecture of Armenia?
VERELQ– political scientist discussed the limits of European integration, the subtleties of diplomatic evasion by the authorities and the hidden meanings of the visits of European officials. Davit Harutyunov with.
Photo: Davit Harutyunov, source: Sputnik
VERELQ. The visit of Martha Kos ended with the signing of an agreement worth 140 million euros and public gratitude for the help provided to Armenia in the evacuation of European citizens. How do you rate these steps? Is this a sign of the transition of Armenia-EU relations to a new level of long-term strategic integration, or is it rather a situational interaction dictated by the current crisis in the region?
Davit Harutyunov. This is the continuation of the previous line of development and deepening of cooperation with the EU, and we may witness other similar agreements in the future. At the same time, it is clear that this rapprochement has its limits, which are also outlined by the EU itself, that is, the question of joining the alliance is not set at the moment. This is also understood by the Armenian authorities, who are currently trying to avoid European integration. Formally announcing the course of joining the EU, Yerevan at the same time strives to preserve the system of relations with Russia, especially within the framework of the EAEU. How long the Armenian side will manage to continue this improvement remains under question.
VERELQ. The European commissioner’s trip to Gyumri attracted the special attention of observers. Considering the specificity of the region, the presence of the Russian military base there and the recent change of the city government, how is this visit perceived in expert circles? Is it considered exclusively within the framework of getting to know the EU regional programs, or do they see a certain political message in it?
Davit Harutyunov. Probably both. The European Union does not hide that it competes with the Russian Federation in Armenia, and in this sense, the visit to Gyumri fits into that logic. At the same time, the representatives of the bloc have always been active in the regions of Armenia, and this activity is often noticeable in the regions of high political importance at the moment. Let me remind, for example, the activity of EU representatives in the Syunik region of Armenia in 2021-23, that is, against the background of the tense situation on the borders of that region.
VERELQ. On the eve of the parliamentary elections, we hear statements in support of Armenia from a number of Western politicians (first, open sympathy from J.D. Vance, then from Donald Tusk), and EU structures direct measures to protect the electoral process from hybrid threats. At the same time, critics call this activism an attempt to influence the electorate. In your opinion, where is the line between international support for democratic institutions and interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state?
Davit Harutyunov. I think that in the current situation, countries like Armenia will not be able to avoid interference in their internal affairs by various power centers. Moreover, in the context of elections and other internal political processes, such interference has occurred in the past, but now we can talk about its increase. At the same time, the effectiveness of such an intervention in terms of the results of the elections remains under question. On the one hand, cooperation with the EU is used by the authorities in the framework of pre-election campaigning, on the other hand, in the upcoming elections (unlike the 2021 elections), social topics may become more important than the topics of foreign policy orientation and security issues.
VERELQ. Some European politicians and analysts draw parallels between the upcoming elections in Armenia and the recent elections in Moldova. In your opinion, how correct is such a comparison? Is there a danger that such positioning will lead to excessive polarization of the Armenian society according to the geopolitical vector?
Davit Harutyunov. The issue of choosing a geopolitical orientation is actively used by both the authorities and the opposition within the pre-election campaign. The first ones present it as a choice in favor of, in their opinion, more prospective relations with the West, actively playing on the skepticism (skepticism) about relations with Russia, which is widespread in the Armenian society after the events of 2020-23. The opposition talks about the authorities’ foreign policy adventurism, choosing to dominate Turkey and Azerbaijan and, in the face of Russia and Iran, betraying old and experienced allies. In fact, Armenia’s real opportunities in choosing a foreign policy orientation are limited and are dictated by the priorities of the main power centers and the real balance of forces in the region. As for its influence on the situation in the Armenian society, I think that the factor of geopolitical choice will play a certain role within the framework of the elections, but, I repeat, probably the socio-economic theme will dominate.
VERELQ. The European Union emphasizes the growing role of trade routes passing through the South Caucasus and declares its willingness to invest in regional infrastructure. However, taking into account the complex geopolitical situation, the tense relations with the neighbors and the conflict in the south, how realistic is the implementation of these economic projects without building a new, stable security architecture for Armenia?
Davit Harutyunov. I am afraid that Armenia will not be able to form a stable security architecture for a long time, and any government in the country will have to conduct a complex avoidance policy between regional and global players. At the same time, the prospects for regional infrastructure projects will certainly be affected by the instability of the actions of the current US administration, which is currently the main player in such projects, as well as the consequences and course of the crisis around Iran. Moreover, the scale of the consequences of the last factor remains unknown for now, as well as the outcome of the conflict itself and the new reality that may be formed in the region as a result of it.
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