A few hours ago, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declassified the 2026 plan of the US intelligence community. Annual Threat Assessment Report. Armenia has a special place there.
We have posted the full translation of that section below.
“The Peace Summit held between Armenia and Azerbaijan under the auspices of the USA on August 8 created an opportunity for the two countries to establish lasting peace and contributed to the growth of regional stability. Among the outcomes of the peace summit was a preliminary agreement on the terms of a peace treaty and plans to create the US-led Trump Path for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which would link Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave through southern Armenia, opening up trade flows for both states and the entire region.
• These developments create a significant change in the direction of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. In 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan militarily regained control over its Nagorno-Karabakh region, which until then was under the control of the ethnic Armenian population supported by Yerevan.
• Since August 8, both sides appear willing to maintain the positive momentum gained from the Peace Summit. Ceasefire violations on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan have drastically decreased and are now almost non-existent. In October 2025, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, announced that Azerbaijan had removed restrictions on cargo transportation through the territory of Azerbaijan to Armenia, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reciprocated the move within days. Since then, Azerbaijan has supplied gasoline to Armenia and allowed transit transportation of wheat.
• There are still obstacles on the way to the final conclusion of the peace agreement. For example, President Aliyev continues to insist that Armenia should amend its Constitution to remove the reference to what he describes as the wording that Nagorno Karabakh is part of Armenia. That step will require holding a constitutional referendum in Armenia, the result of which is not guaranteed.”
Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, advisor to the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, Ruben Safrastyan
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