168: The Church defeated Pashinyan. WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTIONS? If the young man

Satik Seyranyan in the “Pressing” program the guest is a member of the International Sociological Association (ISA), a member of the Political Sociology Research Committee, a member of the European Sociological Association, director of the “ARAR” Foundation This is Armen Khachikyan։

On March 6, the results of a survey published by the American International Republican Institute, IRI, were published, an 81-page document. The data was collected during the period between February 3-13, 2026, using the telephone survey method. The sample consists of 1,506 RA citizens over 18 years of age, covering three age groups.

With them, the policies implemented by the authorities in various fields, public sentiments, political preferences, etc., were evaluated. According to that, the three structures with the highest level of trust are the armed forces, the Armenian Apostolic Church, and regional governorships.

The respondents, for example, also answered the question whether Armenia is moving in the right or wrong direction. If in the post-revolutionary period of 2018, 73% of the population believed that Armenia is moving in the right direction, then as of February 2026, 47% of the country’s population is of the same opinion.

The issues related to the upcoming parliamentary elections are in the center of attention and discussions in the political field.

The opposition is suspicious of the results of the International Republican Institute survey published three months before the National Assembly elections, while the government is euphoric as if the elections are over and they have already won. In fact, neither the government has a reason to be happy, nor the opposition to be sad and depressed.

About the survey results and other surveys published by the American International Republican Institute, IRI The main theses of the interview with sociologist Armen Khachikyan are below.

• Sociology is not just polls. Public opinion expressed in opinion polls does not necessarily mean that it should be expressed in elections. As a rule of thumb, if a telephone survey is made and 20% of the masses respond, the results may not represent the full picture. Many people shy away from saying who they will vote for. If, for example, I am asked, I will not tell about my political preferences, not because I am afraid, but because it is personal information and can be used against me.

• The survey is conducted among 1000-1500 people. In that survey, percentage combinations related to gender, region, educational census and other factors should be preserved. No response index should be considered. However, the resulting picture may not be identical to the election results because the turnout during elections is different. That is, the sample and a bucket of 1000-1500 borscht do not always reflect the real picture.

• Sociology prompts but does not compel. 

• The numbers can be interpreted in many different ways. It can be said that 30% of people in Armenia support Pashinyan, and it can be said that 70% do not. In the same IRI survey, there is a number that the authorities will not like and that they do not talk about…

• Why this research was published late, I cannot say.

• There is an electoral rating and a trust rating. They are different. For example, Gagik Tsarukyan’s rating is high, but when you ask who you will vote for, many people do not see him as the head of the country. According to the results of various researches, the collective opposition forces have a higher electoral rating than Nikol Pashinyan. However, no one knows what temperature, blood pressure or other indicators society will have on June 7, as an organism, so to speak… At this moment, it is not correct to say exactly who will win. 

• There are fewer people who are undecided now. A year ago, their number was much higher – 60%, and this is a serious boost and means that the opposition has room to work. 

• Unfortunately, the opposition still does not understand and does not realize the general mood of the public. The undecided should be the most targeted segment for the opposition. If instead of 50, 60% participate in the elections, that 10% will most likely vote for the opposition, because the government’s electorate is clearly oriented. The opposition must find its electorate among the undecided. Especially among young people, the degree of apathy, disappointment with politics, with the revolution of 2018 is quite high, because in their opinion, the revolution was a very good thing, they participated, but the result was bad… The opposition should work very seriously with this segment. Apart from that, the society is also disappointed by various failed opposition movements, such as the Salvation of the Motherland, Resistance and Sacred movements, because they came, participated, but did not achieve results… 

• In Armenia, the higher the age, the greater the electoral activity. It’s also big among women:

• No matter how much any political force tries to close the issue of Artsakh, the majority of our public does not consider it closed. 2025 according to the results of our survey, 90.1% believe that the loss of Artsakh is temporary, we should strengthen the army and bring back what was lost. Our society has not digested the loss of Artsakh and will definitely not digest it for several years. Moreover, among the youth there is absolute support for the return of the people of Artsakh to Artsakh and the status of Artsakh. The more the Artsakh issue is put on the agenda, the more useful it will be for them. About 30,000 Artsakh citizens emigrated, about 100,000 Artsakh citizens who remained in Armenia, longing for Artsakh in their hearts, are waiting for a political force to come and return them to their homes.:

• On TRIPP, 65% do not believe it will bring peace. Peace is the dream of all of us, but most people don’t believe in that kind of peace.

• The ranking of the Church and the Armenian Army has always been the highest in Armenia. Even after the defeat in the 44-day war, our people treat the army like their child, the Church like their father. After so many attacks by the authorities, after so many campaigns, the ranking of the Church, for one thing, remains very high. Only 3% of the youth view the church negatively. As a result of the anti-church campaign, even the church’s rating did not fall. On the contrary, people began to get to know our church members better, church rules, and became more connected with the Mother Church. In December, feeling that the society does not accept the campaign against the church, the government, seeing that it was affecting his rating, he quite wisely backed off and now attacks are not prioritized:

• A group of Generation Z (Gen Z) asked young people living in the marzas studying in Yerevan, have you seen the video attributed to Saint Arshak by the authorities, and I must say that they are not interested in it at all, they see it as normal that a person can have a private life and feelings. 

• Among the youth, Pashinyan has lower sympathy and support than among the middle-aged and elderly.

• The phenomenon of Samvel Karapetyan was very surprising. A businessman and philanthropist who did not take part in the political life of Armenia. But that’s enough, he said, “I will protect the Church in our own way”, he was arrested, and within 2-3 months his rating surpassed all political forces. First of all, it was the result of supporting the Church, now “Strong Armenia” led by him is the second most powerful force in the political field of Armenia. Therefore, Artsakh and the Church continue to be the priority of the Armenian population, and supporting them will always be useful.:

• 2025 Starting from January-February, the support of 2 foreign political actors in Armenia began to increase: USA and Russia. The support of the European Union, on the contrary, decreased. Now the picture is almost the same. The Iranian factor had its impact in connection with his statements regarding Syunik.

• Peace as a political promise is the best, but in my opinion, this peace has no support in Armenia. This is what the survey results show.

• The older people are, the less media literate they are, the more they fall prey to political propaganda, the more politically active and electorally active they are, so in order to achieve results, opposition political forces must work with young people, especially those aged 30-35.

• For the population of Armenia, Azerbaijan continues to be openly perceived as an enemy.

• The 5,000 casualties that we had in the 44-day war could not but have an impact on people’s psychology, and sometimes even people involved with the aggression of the Azerbaijanis say, well, maybe they have changed, it is our child’s fault, let’s not die… And that is natural, no one wants war.

• It is obvious that Samvel Karapetyan has the highest electoral rating in the opposition. The 2nd is the power of Gagik Tsarukyan, the 3rd and 4th are the DOK led by Vardan Ghukasyan and the “Armenia” alliance led by Robert Kocharyan. Polling of votes is a big problem in the elections, so the best option would be for the opposition to act with a united front. 2021 26 powers took part in the election and it is obvious that 20 of them crushed the votes. That danger still exists today.

• I urge women to participate in political processes. It can have a very positive effect: 

• Perhaps the election will have other “surgical” interventions. Nikol Pashinyan will probably try to restrain Samvel Karapetyan’s power with legal mechanisms, to prevent him from participating… 

• The opposition must understand that these elections will not follow the logic of the previous elections. There will be much more brutal interventions. It is difficult to expect the government with a constitutional majority to open its doors to the opposition through elections.

• In today’s world, anti-rating is almost impossible to reverse. It is obvious that Nikol Pashinyan will have the highest anti-rating after losing power.

• Generation Z is the 11-28-year-olds who know the world with smartphones and gadgets since their birth. They do not care about many things, they are much more individualistic than collective in their thinking, they are more materialistic than idealistic, they would rather not participate in the elections than they will, but all the same, they are patriotic and church-loving. They have great potential to build a better Armenia.

• The opposition should simplify its tools of political propaganda, not campaign like it did in the 1990s, and if it does not have 4% of the vote, it should not participate in the elections. 

• I think that today the RPA is going the right way with its position of not participating in the elections.

Details in the video.

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