Armenia’s economy buys almost twice as much from foreign markets

Facebook post of Davit Ananyan, co-founder of the “Wings of Unity” political initiative

OBSERVATION 2: Foreign trade: decline in exports and deepening dependence on imports (when the real state of the economy is revealed in the external balance)

The real competitiveness of the economy is best seen not in domestic statistical growth indicators, but in the foreign trade balance.

If the economy strengthens, exports increase, markets diversify and import dependence decreases.

2026 January’s data show the opposite picture.

Thus, the external sector reveals the reality that is often not seen in official statements about economic activity.

 A drop in exports at the very beginning of the year

2026 In January, Armenia’s export amounted to 463.9 million dollars, which is 13.5% less than in 2025. the same month.

At the same time, the import amounted to 811.8 million dollars. As a result, the foreign trade turnover amounted to 1.28 billion dollars, which is 12% less than the same month last year.

This means that the very first month of the year for Armenia’s foreign trade begins with a weakening trend of exports.

 Trade balance: real “accounting” of the economy

Foreign trade balance in 2026 in January it was -347.9 million dollars. In other words, Armenia’s economy buys from foreign markets almost twice as much as it sells.

Such a structure is characteristic of economies where domestic production is weak, exports are limited, and consumption is heavily dependent on imports.

 Export Structural Vulnerability

Export data shows another important problem: the structural volatility of exports.
2026 in January, the export of precious metals and stones decreased by about 45%, ready-made food products by about 16%, and the export of devices and equipment by about 69%.

This shows that Armenia’s exports continue to be:

 with a limited product structure,

 with low participation of high-tech production, and

 depending on several product groups.

Such a structure makes the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in foreign markets.

 Geographic structure: limitation of markets

The geographical structure of foreign trade also shows a system of dependencies.

In particular, in 2026 The structure of foreign trade in January was as follows. CIS countries – 29.1%, EU countries – 14%, other countries – 56.9% in foreign trade turnover.

At the same time, the trade turnover with Russia decreased by about 38%.

These data show that Armenia’s foreign trade remains concentrated and based on limited markets.

 “External Audit” of Economic Growth

Foreign trade acts as a reality check mechanism for the economy. If the economy is actually strengthening, exports should increase, import dependence should decrease, and the external balance should stabilize.

But in 2026 January data show the opposite trend.

 exports decline
 the trade deficit remains large,
 the economy continues to depend on imports.

 Conclusion

The figures of foreign trade again show the structural problem of Armenia’s economy, in particular, the official talk about economic activity does not translate into real expansion of exports.

Armenia’s economy continues to be an import-dependent consumer economy, not an export-based production economy.

—