Month: December 2023

Azerbaijan and Armenia have agreed to a prisoner exchange, and to work towards normalizing ties and a peace deal to a decades-long conflict — a move the United States and European Union have welcomed.

Azerbaijan will release 32 prisoners of war to Armenia in exchange for two, all members of the military, according to a joint statement published by Azerbaijan’s state news agency AZERTAC.

“The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region. Two countries reconfirm their intention to normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the statement reads. The breakthrough comes after talks between the offices of the Azerbaijani president and the Armenian prime minister.

“An agreement has been reached on taking tangible steps towards building confidence between two countries,” the statement reads.

A US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the prisoner swap represented “an important confidence building measure” as the two countries work towards a peace agreement.

“We commend Azerbaijani President (Ilham) Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister (Nikol) Pashinyan for their joint efforts to lay the groundwork for a more peaceful and prosperous future for the people of the South Caucasus,” Miller said in a statement. “The United States will continue to strongly support efforts to reach a durable and dignified peace.”

“Establishing and deepening bilateral dialogue between sides has been a key objective of the EU-led Brussels process: today’s progress is a key step,” EU Council President Charles Michel said on X. “I now encourage the leaders to finalise the … peace deal ASAP.”

The neighboring nations have been engaged in a decades long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in the Caucasus Mountains.

In September, Azerbaijan regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic-Armenian enclave within its borders, after launching a lightning 24-hour assault.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally considered part of Azerbaijan but for decades has been under the control of Armenian separatists. Armenia and Azerbaijan had already fought two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and ceasefire agreements between them have proven brittle.

Armenia earlier this year conceded that the region was part of Azerbaijan, but there are still divisions over the future of its government.

The latest breakthrough on prisoner exchanges and normalizing ties came as delegates from both countries also attend the COP28 climate talks in Dubai.

The statement also said that Armenia would pull out of the running to host the annual UN-backed climate summit next year and that it hoped other countries would support Azerbaijan’s candidacy.

There is a vacuum for the summit host for COP29 in 2024, which should be held in eastern Europe, as UN rules dictate. The two nations had before Thursday been blocking each other’s candidacy in the voting process.

The host country is decided by vote among nations within the region for the year. Russia has voted against several nations that are members of or allied to the European Union.

Azerbaijan, which has been forging closer ties with Russia, is a major oil and gas producer. Oil and gas make up nearly half the country’s GDP and more than 90% of its exports.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/08/europe/azerbaijan-armenia-conflict-prisoner-swap-cop28-climate-intl/index.html

YEREVAN, Armenia (AP) — Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed Thursday to exchange prisoners of war and work toward signing a peace treaty in what the European Union hailed as a major step toward peace in the long-troubled region.

The two countries said in a joint statement they "share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace." They said they intend "to normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Azerbaijan waged a lightning military campaign in September in the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The offensive ended three decades of rule there by ethnic Armenians and resulted in the vast majority of the 120,000 residents fleeing the region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

Until Thursday's announcement, the two countries had bitterly argued on the outline of a peace process amid mutual distrust.

As part of the deal, Armenia agreed to lift its objections to Azerbaijan hosting next year's international conference on climate change.

Countries had been unable to agree on an eastern European host for the 2024 climate talks, with Russia vetoeing EU countries and Azerbaijan and Armenia nixing each other. A decision on the meeting's location and presidency is due within the next week.

The joint statement said that "the Republic of Armenia supports the bid of the Republic of Azerbaijan to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, by withdrawing its own candidacy."

European Council President Charles Michel praised the agreement as a major breakthrough, saying on X that he particularly welcomes the deal to release detainees and make an "unprecedented opening in political dialogue."

Michel called on Armenia and Azerbaijan to finalize a peace deal as soon as possible.

The U.S. government also welcomed the deal, saying the swapping of POWs was an "important confidence building measure as the sides work to finalize a peace agreement and normalize relations."

"The United States will continue to strongly support efforts to reach a durable and dignified peace," added the statement from State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

Armenia and Azerbaijan said in their statement that talks between Azerbaijan's presidential administration and the office of Armenia's prime minister led to an agreement "on taking tangible steps towards building confidence between two countries."

Azerbaijan said it would release 32 captured Armenian military servicemen, while Armenia will release two Azerbaijani soldiers.

The two countries said they will continue their discussions "regarding the implementation of more confidence building measures" and called on the international community for support "that will contribute to building mutual trust between two countries."

Erdogan suggested that Yerevan should focus on peace, rather than falling into traps set by other countries.

"What France is doing is just provocation. France should know that it is not doing good to Armenia, on the contrary, it is doing harm," Erdogan told a group of journalists on Friday who had accompanied him on a state visit to Greece. 

“France has previously supported Armenia. What result did they get? Nothing," he added.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said during a visit to Armenia in October that Paris had agreed to deliver military equipment to Armenian forces following Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the area.

More than 100,000 ethnic Armenians left Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan attacked the area in a "counter-terror" operation in September, forcing Armenian separatists to sign a disarmament deal less than 24 hours after the offensive. 

Nagorno-Karabakh is a nominal Azerbaijani territory under international law, with a majority ethnic Armenian population. It had previously been run by a breakaway Armenian authority.

Armenia did not resist the Azerbaijani offensive three months ago, blaming Russian forces for the failure. Yerevan confirmed that it recognised Azerbaijan's territorial unity, but called the ethnic Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh "forced displacement". 

Armenian news site Armenpress reported earlier this week that France had already delivered 24 Bastion armoured vehicles, citing an internal document from the French Senate.

The remaining 26 vehicles were in the production phase and will arrive at a later date, the report said. 

The internal document, as quoted by Armenpress, stated that Armenia had recently signed an order for the purchase of three GM200 radars from French company Thales, and was in talks over a delivery of French-made Mistral 3 surface-to-air missiles. 

It added a recommendation that a delivery of France's Caesar self-propelled howitzer artillery system should also be studied.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in a joint statement on Thursday announced that they had taken a number of confidence-building measures, including releasing several prisoners of war from each side and supporting each other in international forums such as the Cop28 climate summit. 

The Turkish foreign ministry in an official statement on Friday backed the move and said it hoped both countries will sign a peace agreement soon. 

Turkey backed Azerbaijan during a previous offensive against Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, with armed drones and other sophisticated weapons, as well as with Syrian fighters. 

On December 6 a top U.S. diplomat made a visit to Azerbaijan against a backdrop of deteriorating relations between the two countries. 

The visit was received positively by Azerbaijani officials and media, but there is no sign that the hunt for "U.S. spies" in the country is about to let up. 

Elsewhere on the same day, President Ilham Aliyev issued a warning to France and India against arming Armenia, saying that doing so increases the chance of more war. 

Aliyev's reception of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien was the first high-level meeting between the two countries since the sides mutually canceled such visits last month over disagreements on Azerbaijan's military offensive in Karabakh in September. 

The sides stressed the importance of the visit "in terms of discussions on various aspects of bilateral relations and the exchange of ideas on regional issues," according to the readout on Aliyev's website. 

"Emphasizing that Azerbaijan supported the regional peace agenda, President Ilham Aliyev said that after the end of the conflict [with Armenia] and full restoration of Azerbaijan's sovereignty [over Karabakh], historic opportunities had arisen for the establishment of peace, noting that the United States could contribute to the process by considering the new realities," the statement read. 

The readout didn't mention the recent U.S.-Azerbaijani tensions, instead noting that the sides "described the resumption of reciprocal visits as a positive step for advancing bilateral relations." 

The State Department said Aliyev and O'Brien "discussed our countries' deep historical ties and the importance of the bilateral relationship." 

On the same day, O'Brien met Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. 

O'Brien described his meetings as "positive and constructive" in a post on X. He wrote that the U.S. welcomes visits of Azerbaijani Central Bank governor and energy minister, and that U.S. State Secretary Anthony Blinken "looks forward to hosting" Bayramov and his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan in Washington "soon for peace negotiations." 

Previously, in mid-November, Azerbaijan refused to send Bayramov to Washington for peace talks in protest against remarks by O'Brien at a congressional hearing. In that hearing, O'Brien said that the U.S. State Department "has made it clear to Azerbaijan that there cannot be business as usual in our bilateral relationship. The United States has condemned Azerbaijani actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, canceled high-level bilateral meetings and engagements with Azerbaijan, and suspended plans for future events." 

At around the same time, the U.S. Senate passed a bill titled the Armenian Protection Act that would suspend military assistance to Azerbaijan. The bill has not been taken up by the House of Representatives. 

"Looks like Azerbaijan-US relations are back to normal, which is very good as these relations are built over many important areas during the three decades," wrote Farid Shafiyev, chair of a Baku-based state-run think tank, on X. "Or it might face another challenge or spoiler in the US Congress."

While relations might be on a positive trajectory, the spat has resulted in lasting damage to Azerbaijan's small and already beleaguered independent media. 

A campaign in Azerbaijani state-run and pro-government media against American "spies" has been followed by arrests of journalists alleged to be taking U.S. money to do Washington's bidding in Azerbaijan. 

So far, six journalists and one rights activist have been arrested in the country on different charges. 

Abzas Media, a prominent independent investigative outlet, has been the biggest target. Its whole management team was arrested and placed in pretrial detention on smuggling charges after police said they discovered 40,000 euros in cash in a raid of Absaz's Baku office. 

"If we wanted, we would have done it"

A few hours before receiving O'Brien in Baku, Aliyev spoke at a forum in Baku. Responding to a participant's question, he touched on O'Brien's "no business as usual" remark. "Either, they should say that business as usual continues, and I hope to hear it today and we will restore the Washington process, or there'll be only Brussels and Moscow," Aliyev said in English, referring to three of the mediators overseeing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. 

He also addressed widespread fears in Armenia and the international community that Baku might invade its neighbor and rival. "If we wanted, we would have done it. I can say this absolutely openly. From all points of view, it is not a big problem. In one day, they laid down their weapons in Karabakh, our flag was raised in Khankendi," he said. 

At the same time, he touched on recent arms supplies to Armenia by France and India and warned that they could trigger another war in the region. 

"This is provocative. The countries, who supply Armenia with weapons like France and India, now pour oil on the fire and create unrealistic illusions in Armenia that using these weapons they can take back Karabakh," he said. 

"My message to them is don't create a situation here – in the region, when we will be sure that you are planning to damage us. We are not sure yet. That's why we do not react, we observe what France is supplying to Armenia those armored vehicles which nobody wants to buy. They do not pose any danger to us. But if we see that there is some serious installation, which can be harmful, we will have to react. And I informed everybody about that. So, there'll be no complaints."

Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a joint statement without intermediaries for the first time yesterday (December 7) since the beginning of the Karabakh conflict in September.

Garo Paylan, former MP from the People's Democratic Party (HDP) in Diyarbakır and an Armenian in Turkey, commented on this joint statement made by Armenia and Azerbaijan, including the mutual release of prisoners.

Paylan's statement on the matter from his Twitter account is as follows:

"Great news! I hope the joint statement by Armenia and Azerbaijan heralding the mutual release of prisoners becomes a milestone on the path to peace. The road to peace will open with such confidence-building steps. Let's all take responsibility together for a lasting peace."

The joint statement made by Armenia and Azerbaijan reads: 

“The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region." 

"The two countries reconfirm their intention to normalise relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity."

As part of the agreement reached between two countries, Azerbaijan released 32 Armenian soldiers in exchange for two Azerbaijani soldiers “as driven by values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill.”

The joint statement also says that “the Republic of Armenia supports the bid of the Republic of Azerbaijan to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, by withdrawing its own candidacy." 

Again according to the statement, Azerbaijan supports Armenia's candidacy for membership in the Eastern European Group of the Committee on Political Affairs and Security (COP) of the Council of Europe as a sign of goodwill. (TY/PE)

https://bianet.org/haber/top-court-invalidates-legal-provision-on-committing-crimes-on-behalf-of-a-criminal-organization-289023

The EU appears set on including prohibitions on the sale of Russian diamonds in its upcoming 12th package of sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. 

The move, aimed at exerting pressure on Russia's economy and depriving it of financial resources to wage its war, is certain to have an effect on Armenia's important and growing diamond-cutting industry. 

Whether that effect is negative or positive will depend on how the EU will manage the difficult task of tracing cut diamonds to their rough origins in Russia's mines. 

Helpful or harmful?

The proposed sanctions, adopted by the European Commission and awaiting approval from the EU's 27 member states, will apply to diamonds of Russian origin that are cut in third countries, according to the AFP, which viewed a copy of the document.

Starting January 1, the ban would apply to "non-industrial natural and synthetic diamonds as well as diamond jewellery" while the import ban on Russian diamonds cut or polished in third countries would be phased in between March and September, AFP said.

The bans will affect Armenia's diamond-cutting industry, which gets a large proportion of its raw gems from Russia. They are purchased by the Armenian state company Hay-Almast, which was established in 2021 chiefly to enable bulk procurements from Russia's Alrosa, which is one of the world's largest suppliers of rough diamonds. 

"The whole idea behind creating Hay-Almast was to consolidate domestic demand and procurement of Russian rough diamonds, as Alrosa doesn't do small orders," said Hay-Almast director Tigran Khachatryan. 

Khachatryan told Eurasianet that EU sanctions would definitely have an impact on Armenia's diamond-cutting industry, but he found it difficult to speculate how.

At first glance it's hard to imagine that impact being anything other than harmful, since, according to Khachatryan, Hay-Almast buys 30-40 percent of its rough diamonds from Russia (the rest coming from various other countries, including in Africa).

Armenia's diamond-cutting industry has grown by leaps and bounds in recent years, attracting major foreign investors like India's KGK Diamonds. And with that growth has come a growing need for Russian raw diamonds. 

Armenia's total export of cut diamonds in 2022 totalled $418 million according to Armenian Customs Service statistics. That's four times the number for 2021. Growth has continued this year, though not quite at the same pace: $240 million of cut diamonds were sold in the first six months of 2023. (Cut diamonds ranked third among Armenia's exports for that period, coming in behind gold at $281 million and re-exported cars at $311 million.)

But some are pinning hopes on the prospect that Armenian diamonds of Russian origin will not be identified as such. 

"The new EU sanctions could have various kinds of effects on the Armenian diamond industry," a source in the Armenian government told Eurasianet on condition of anonymity. 

"The whole issue is how strictly the movements of Russian rough diamonds around the world will be monitored and how it will be determined whether a diamond cut in Armenia or some other country is of Russian origin or not."

In this context, the export/re-export supply chain will be a factor. Most Armenian cut diamonds of Russian origin are first sold to the United Arab Emirates and then find their way around the world from there.  

Banking on re-exports

Armenia has already seen economic growth from booming re-exports over the last two years.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine early last year, Armenia's trade with Russia has grown severalfold thanks precisely to re-exports of goods like cars and household items that Western producers had supplied directly to Russia before the war. 

Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan recently acknowledged the central role played by re-export in the overall structure of Armenia-Russia trade. He said that while exports to Russia were up 215 percent for the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, re-export accounted for 187 percentage points of this growth while exports of Armenian products accounted for just 28 percentage points. 

Sanctions enforcement difficulties

As the AFP noted, the origin of diamonds can easily be obscured by mixing them with stones from other sources. And they change weight and appearance as they are cut and polished. 

This, coupled with the gems' small size, means it will be exceedingly difficult to enforce sanctions against their circulation. 

In the absence of a sophisticated tracking system, a diamond that is mined in Russia, cut and polished in Armenia, and exported to the UAE will be hard to trace to its origin, experts say.

So if, as seems likely, enforcement is weak, it's possible to imagine a boon for the Armenian diamond-cutting industry. As other markets close to Russian rough diamonds, more of them could enter Armenia, whose exports of cut diamonds would consequently go up. 

One could imagine this developing into a scheme resembling the one under which India purchases Russian oil, refines it, and then sells the resulting fuels onward to Europe.  

"Purely theoretically, we could see a growth in supplies of Russian rough diamonds to Armenia for processing and sale to other countries. But we must be careful, as this could be seen as another attempt by Armenia to help Russia evade sanctions," economist Armen Ktoyan said in an interview with Eurasianet. 

Ktoyan further noted that, while the diamond processing industry is showing impressive growth, Armenian businesses are not seeing much of the profit. 

"Most of the profit goes to international companies involved in moving and selling this product on global markets. So one should think long and hard before betting on growth in the inflow of Russian rough diamonds and making new investments in this sphere," he said. 

Mitigating risks

Meanwhile some in Armenia are focused on the risks posed by the sanctions and see a need to diversify the country's rough diamond importers. Doing so would protect the diamond-cutting industry from a rapid decline should there at some point be a total (and enforceable) ban on Russian rough diamonds. 

The industry already experienced a sharp drop in raw materials in the mid-2000s. At that time production and exports took a dive both because of stronger global competition and because of a strengthening of the Armenian currency, the dram, against the dollar and euro, which drove up the cost of exports

Tigran Khachatryan, the director of the state raw diamond procurement company, says Hay-Almast has been talking for several months now with a potential new supplier. 

He refused to say who it is but expressed optimism that a deal will be reached. 

"We are halfway there in our talks with the new supplier. We hope to have a result soon," he said.